Oil Acumen

03/09/12 Forward Progression

2012-03-09T00:23:00.000-08:00

Things are going to get better. The kids will grow up and be able to dominate even the toughest NHL competition. Or so we are told. How have some other young stars developed over recent years? Did they look like the young Oilers do now when they started out in the world's best league?

In order to answer that question, I decided to look at five young stars from around the NHL. To be eligible they had to have been a rookie no earlier than the 2007-08 season, so that their advanced stats can be tracked thanks to the fantastic Behind the Net.

Patrick Kane

Kane came into the league right after being selected first overall by Chicago in the 2007 Draft. Here are his 5x5 numbers from that season:

He faced the second easiest competition among regular Hawks forwards

He had the third best Relative Corsi of the regular forwards

He started 55.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone

So, Kane was very sheltered as a rookie with Chicago and had good results. He still managed to average 18:21 of ice time per game, thanks to his average of 3:56 of powerplay ice time, and he also led his team in scoring with 72 points. By the time Chicago was in their Stanley Cup Championship season, his 5x5 numbers looked like this:

He faced the 7th toughest competition of 13 forwards who played more than 30 games

He had the 4th best Relative Corsi of the regular forwards

And he started a whopping 67.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone

The level of competition that Kane faced was middling by the time Chicago was a Cup contender, and his zone starts were still being heavily sheltered 5x5. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that he had career highs in goals (30) and points (88) that season, especially because he led his team in powerplay ice time per game with 3:14.

In the playoffs, the numbers are even more striking.

Kane faced the 6th toughest competition among the forwards

He had the 5th best Relative Corsi of the forward group

And he started an eye-popping 75.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength

Should we be surprised that Kane had 28 points in 22 playoff games on the way to winning the Stanley Cup? The Hawks had five forwards who could face the tougher competition in the playoffs and allow Kane to do his thing. He didn't get significantly better at facing the tough competition, but the quality of his supporting cast was such that he could be free to pick apart weaker opponents.

Jonathan Toews

One cannot think about the Blackhawks and Patrick Kane without also looking at Jonathan Toews. The Hawks' captain was a rookie the same year as Kane, and his progression was fairly similar. In 2007-08 his 5x5 numbers were as follows:

Toews faced the 4th easiest competition among regular forwards

He had the 5th best Relative Corsi of the forward group

And he started 55.7% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Toews was not thrown into the deep end and expected to swim, which is what we might think happened considering what we know about him now. He was still a rookie, and he was given the rookie treatment. He scored 54 points in 64 games, and like Kane his 18:40 of ice time per game was propped up by his average of 3:41 on the powerplay.

In the regular season during 2009-10, Toews' 5x5 numbers looked like this:

He faced the 3rd toughest competition of regular Hawks forwards

His Relative Corsi was 3rd best among the forwards

And he started 58.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Toews progressed steadily into a more trusted role with his coaches, and despite his competition he put up 68 points in 76 games. 2:59 of his 20:00 of average ice time was spent on the powerplay, which is the second-most powerplay time behind Kane. Here are his playoff numbers at even strength:

Toews faced the 7th toughest competition among the forwards

He had the 2nd best Relative Corsi of the forwards

And he started 62.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Interestingly, Toews faced slightly easier competition than Kane, and he was starting a high percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength. He was less relied upon to be a workhorse in the playoffs than the regular season, and Chicago marched all the way to their Cup win.

Nicklas Backstrom

The Swedish Nicklas Backstrom went 4th overall to Washington in 2006 and debuted as a rookie in 2007-08. Here is what his rookie season looked like:

He faced the 7th toughest competition of the regular forwards

Had the best Relative Corsi of the forwards

And started 60.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Backstrom has always been a player that drives possession; even as a rookie. He was being helped out by middling competition and with a high percentage of offensive zone starts at even strength. Also, his point totals are owed partially to the fact that 4:02 of his 18:59 of ice time was spent on the powerplay. Below are his numbers from last year, which was Backstom's fourth in the NHL.

He faced the 7th toughest competition of the forwards

Once again, he had the best Relative Corsi of the forwards

And he started 51% of his shifts in the offensive zone

There isn't much movement here, except that Backstrom's zone starts have gotten tougher. That, and Washington's defensive style that year, may have helped contribute to Backstrom having the lowest point total of his career to date.

Steve Stamkos

Super-sniper Steve Stamkos went first overall to Tampa in 2008 and premiered in the NHL the following season. Here are his 5x5 numbers:

He had the 2nd easiest competition of the regular forwards

The 6th best Relative Corsi of the forwards

And started 58% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Stamkos was very sheltered as a rookie, and managed to post 46 points in 79 games. He was 7th on the Lightning with an average of 2:50 per game on the powerplay, and 16th on the team in total ice time with just 14:56. Last year he had 45-46-91 in 82 games, and his underlying 5x5 numbers looked like this:

The 5th toughest competition of the regular forwards

The 7th best Relative Corsi

And started 49.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Stamkos was given much tougher assignments in his third NHL season, and managed to handle himself quite well. Not surprisingly, he was first on the Lightning in poweplay ice time per game with 4:32, and 5th of all their skaters at 20:11 per game in total. This is a player who has learned to dominate very quickly. He seems to be every bit as good as his counting stats would have you believe, and he's earned himself a spot in the very top tier of NHL talent.

John Tavares

John Tavares may be a closer comparison to a player like Taylor Hall than either one of them is to Stamkos, but time will tell. As a rookie:

Tavares faced the 7th toughest competition among the forwards

Had the 8th best Relative Corsi

and started 59.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone

Tavares wasn't sheltered in the extreme, but he managed to have some reasonably good success in his first year with 54 points. He played 18:00 per game, and 4:08 of that on the powerplay. Last year:

He faced the 3rd toughest competition

Had the 5th best Relative Corsi

and started 55.6% of his shifts in the offensive zone at even strength

His assignments got a bit tougher, and yet Tavares improved to 67 points in 79 games. 3:30 of his 19:15 of ice time was spent on the powerplay.

That's a lot of data

Darn tootin' it is! So what can we make of it? More importantly, how do players like Hall and Eberle stack up? I'm glad you asked!

Taylor Hall

Last year at even strength:

3rd toughest competition among the regular forwards

The best Relative Corsi of the forwards

52% of his zone starts in the offensive zone

At least partially because of the lack of better options, the Oilers tossed Hall directly into the fray. And he flourished. Relative to the forwards on his team, Hall faced the toughest competition of any of the players I've listed so far. His zone starts weren't pillowy soft, and he was driving the puck in the right direction. Hall was 7th in powerplay ice time on the Oilers with 2:43 per game, and averaged 18:12 in total ice.

This year at even strength:

4th toughest competition among the regular forwards

The best Relative Corsi of the forwards

57.9% offensive zone starts

Hall's team has a bit more of a veteran presence up front with the addition of Ryan Smyth, and that has bumped him back on the competition level. He's up to 3:10 per game on the powerplay, but he's only on the ice for a total of 18:25 per game - an increase of just 13 seconds per game over his rookie year. Most of the forwards listed above had increases - sometimes very large increases - in ice time per game, but Hall has not enjoyed that privilege yet. He's already the best player the Oilers have at driving the play forward, and when he starts to be trusted more by his coaches he could explode offensively just like these others did.

Jordan Eberle

Last year at even strength:

5th toughest competition among the regular forwards

2nd best Relative Corsi among the forwards

49.3% offensive zone starts

Eberle was also given some tough assignments right out of the gate, but he wasn't overwhelmed. He drove the play in the right direction, and led the team in scoring despite 2:32 on the powerplay and 17:40 in total ice time.

This year at even strength:

8th toughest competition among the regular forwards

5th best Relative Corsi

62.7% offensive zone starts

Even though Eberle is leading the Oilers in scoring, and has already potted 30 goals, he's actually averaging less ice time per game than he did as a rookie with just 17:11. He's up to 3:11 per game on the powerplay, however. Eberle has been aided this season by a remarkably high shooting percentage (19.4%), but one can only imagine what he could do with the kind of ice time increase that some of the other players listed had. His competition and zone starts have been easier than last year, but at some point he will have to be given some tougher tasks for the sake of more ice time.

***

There isn't enough data yet to make a call on Nugent-Hopkins (though the preliminary numbers are fairly promising), but what we know about the progression of some other stars around the league compares favorably with what the Oilers have in Hall and Eberle. These two are already the best the Oilers have at controlling the direction of play, and are showing many positive signs.

What happened in Chicago shows us that if the Oilers want to win soon they will need to build up a strong supporting cast of productive veteran players. Remember that when the Oilers were winning at the beginning of the season it was because the vets were taking on the toughest assignments and managing to put up points. This allowed the kids to pick apart the middling and softer competition. If the Oilers don't get veterans who can score consistently, they're better off handing the reigns to the young players and giving them a bigger chunk of the ice time. The coaching staff hasn't done that regularly enough, and the team has slid downhill.

Oilers management thinks of "protecting their young players" in terms of adding enforcers that don't play a regular shift, but the best way to protect them would be to add quality bottom-six forwards that can shut down the opposition's best and allow the kids to pick off the stragglers. Many fans aren't exactly confident in the ability of this management group to bring in the type of players this team really needs, but if it does happen the Oilers have a foundation that is just as good as some very good teams.

03/07/12 Oilers and the NHL Awards

2012-03-08T03:08:00.000-08:00

That lovely piece of hardware is the Lady Bing Memorial Trophy, and each year it is awarded to the NHL player that best exhibits both sportsmanship and a high level of play. It's one of two trophies that Edmonton Oilers players have a realistic shot at. How likely are they to win?

The last Oiler to win the Lady Bing was Jari Kurri way back in 1984-85. Since the lockout only two players - Pavel Datsyuk and Martin St. Louis - have won this particular award, so it would take quite an exceptional performance for an Oiler on a bottom team to usurp them. Jordan Eberle is such a player. Eberle is currently sitting in 12th in NHL scoring with 63 points in 62 games, and he's only got 8 penalty minutes all year long. All of the players above him in scoring have more penalty minutes, and Marian Hossa, who is close with 16 PIMs, has just one more point than Eberle in 5 more games played.

The numbers from past winners:

2010-11: Martin St Louis, 4th in league scoring with 99 points; 12 PIMs
2009-10: Martin St. Louis, 6th in league scoring with 94 points; 12 PIMs
2008-09: Pavel Datsyuk, 4th in league scoring with 97 points; 22 PIMs
2007-08: Pavel Datsyuk, 4th in league scoring with 97 points; 20 PIMs
2006-07: Pavel Datsyuk, 17th in league scoring with 87 points; 20 PIMs
2005-06: Pavel Datsyuk, 18th in league scoring with 87 points; 22 PIMs

Over the last four years the winner of the Lady Bing has had to be inside the top 6 in NHL scoring, but Datsyuk's wins in 2006-07 and 2005-06 show that it can be done without being at the very top of the league in points.

Jordan Eberle won't be in the top six in NHL scoring, but he does have all the attributes to at least be a finalist for the Lady Bing. The trouble is that players who are sportsmanlike can also sometimes fly under the radar, and it could take Eberle some time to build up enough of a reputation to win a major NHL award.

Other potential finalists this season: Claude Giroux (3rd in NHL with 77 points; 25 PIMs), Phil Kessel (5th in NHL with 70 points; 20 PIMs), Loui Eriksson (16th in NHL with 61 points; 6 PIMs)

That is the Calder Trophy, which goes to the NHL's rookie of the year. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is still near the head of the line for this one, with 39 points in 46 games. The two players ahead of him are Adam Henrique and Gabriel Landeskog, who each have 43 points. However, Henrique has played 58 games and Landeskog has appeared in 68, which means that they have 0.74 points per game and 0.63 points per game respectively. Nugent-Hopkins is scoring at a 0.85 points per game clip, and he's also more than three years younger than Henrique.

This one doesn't always go to the best point producer among rookies, but there doesn't appear to be a goalie or defenseman who's really in the mix for this award. Nugent-Hopkins compares favorably with some skaters who are past winners of the Calder:

2010-11: Jeff Skinner, 1st in points by a rookie with 63 (0.77 points per game)
2009-10: Tyler Myers, 3rd in points by a rookie with 48 - 1st by a rookie defenseman (0.59 points per game)
2007-08: Patrick Kane, 1st in points by a rookie with 72 (0.88 points per game)

I didn't include 2008-09 because it was won by Steve Mason, and I stopped after 2007-08 because in the years prior to that the rookies of the year were Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Ovechkin. To compare Nugent-Hopkins to them is unfair, especially in the context of deciding who is the top rookie for 2011-12.

Notably, however, is the fact that Nugent-Hopkins wouldn't be at all out of place when it comes to the points per game of past winners. He's also scoring at a rate that would see him finish first in rookie scoring this season. Landeskog is on pace to finish with 52 points, and Henrique should put up another 12 points or so for 55 total. If Nugent-Hopkins keeps scoring at his current pace he'll finish the season with about 56 points in just 66 games.

No Oilers player has ever won the Calder, which means that if Nugent-Hopkins does, it will be a major milestone for the organization. At the end of the day these awards don't mean anything unless the team starts to win, but for Oilers players to be considered means that the team is taking a step in the right direction. It's a moral victory more than anything else, but right now we'll take it.

03/04/12 Rick Nash and the Implications for Edmonton

2012-03-04T14:34:00.000-08:00

Even if Rick Nash wanted to come to Edmonton (he doesn't), the Oilers don't need to trade for him. However, if the Nash trade does happen before the NHL Draft, there will be meaning for the Edmonton Oilers in the long term. A trade involving the superstar right winger will set the value of such a player across the NHL.

It has come out into the open that the Oilers want to add at least one "top end" defenseman before next season, and according to Darren Dreger that will most likely come about via trade. It's hard to argue with a man as plugged in as Dreger, so now the question remains: what would the Oilers have to offer for such a player? That's easy. Considering their current position, the Oilers will be picking at the top of the draft, where two elite forwards are available.

Nail Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko are not proven NHL scorers, as Nash is, but they are highly regarded enough to fetch a massive price on the market. When Nash is traded we'll have some idea of how much those two could be worth. Elliotte Friedman reported in his 30 thoughts that the Blue Jackets rejected an enormous offer from the New York Ranger for Nash: Brandon Dubinsky, Tim Erixon, Christian Thomas, J.T. Miller and a first round pick.

A little history:

Tim Erixon is a former first round pick by Calgary, who refused to sign there and was subsequently traded to New York. Christian Thomas is a former second round pick (40th overall) who followed up his 41 goal sophomore season in the OHL with a 54 goal campaign last year. Miller was New York's first round pick in 2011, going 15th overall. Hockey's Future has those three listed as the Rangers' second, third and fourth best prospects behind only Chris Kreider. Them, plus Dubinsky and a first round pick is a huge price.

The Rangers didn't want to tinker too much with their team chemistry, so they didn't add enough proven NHL scoring in this offer, and Scott Howson turned it down. When the season ends there will be 29 teams that didn't win the Stanley Cup, and trading proven NHL players will become more palatable. That's when Nash will be moved, and when the Oilers could also add to their roster. Happily, the Jackets want to add scoring in exchange for Nash, which won't tamper with the defensive market that the Oilers will be dipping into.

In fact, it may make it easier for the Oilers to find a trade, as teams will be more apt to part with defense in exchange for scoring. Even a pick as high as second overall may not fetch the bounty that Nash will, but it would be valuable enough to vastly improve the defense in Edmonton. If a team overpays for Nash, it will only improve the Oilers' bargaining position.

The Oilers always have the option of using their first round pick on a defense prospect like Ryan Murray, Griffin Reinhart or Matt Dumba, or testing the free agent market to improve the defense. But if they want to add a proven NHL player via trade, Rick Nash will have an effect on the market that may be good for Edmonton.

03/01/12 The Oilers Are Not Like the Islanders. Here's Why

2012-03-01T17:26:00.000-08:00

If you spend time around the interweb (you're here, so you must), you've probably seen someone call the Oilers "Islanders West," or something similar. As it happens, the troubles the Isles are having has nothing to do with Edmonton, as the two teams aren't that similar at all.

Whether or not you believe the Oilers' rebuild started in 2007, the fact remains that it was then that the team first finished low enough to pick high in the draft and began to accumulate assets. We'll have a peek at both the Oilers and Islanders from 2007 onward, and note the similarities and differences. Both teams are sporting players that were drafted first overall, but there is a lot separating them as well.

Since 2007 the Oilers have made 8 selections in the top 22 spots of the Draft. The pick they surrendered in the Penner offer sheet ended up becoming Tyler Myers (oops), but at least the Oilers were able to turn Penner into one of the 8 first rounders (Klefbom), as well as former 2008 first round choice Colten Teubert. Including Teubert, they've added 9 players taken within the top 22 in five years. Five of those players (Gagner, Eberle, Paajarvi, Hall and RNH) are already in the NHL and all except Paajarvi are bona fide impact players.

By contrast, the Islanders have added 5 players who were picked in the top 12 since 2007, along with Brock Nelson who went 30th in 2010. Of those, John Tavares, Josh Bailey and Nino Niederreiter are the only ones in the NHL, and only Tavares has been truly impactful.

Wrong though it may be that failure is rewarded richly in the NHL, that is how the Draft works. Had the Islanders picked first overall in consecutive years, as the Oilers did, they would be sitting on John Tavares and Taylor Hall. Instead, the Islanders picked Nino Niederreiter 5th in 2010, who has only 2-1-3 in 48 NHL games thus far. They picked 5th last year as well and took Ryan Strome. Strome has many good characteristics, but he has taken a bit of a step back this year with the Niagara IceDogs in terms of points per game.

For whatever reason (see: luck; losing a lot), the Oilers have had the edge over the Isles at the Draft. In 2008 New York picked Bailey 9th overall with Jordan Eberle still on the board, who didn't hear his name called until 22nd. Because of horrendous losing seasons Edmonton picked up Hall before Niederreiter and Nugent-Hopkins before Strome.

But it wasn't just that. One of Edmonton's first round picks in 2007 originally belonged to the Islanders, and was traded to the Oilers in the Ryan Smyth deal. Also in that deal were the Islanders' 2003 and 2005 first round picks Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra. The resulting player, Alex Plante, isn't setting the world on fire with his play, but New York never had the chance to make the right selection.

Outside the Draft, the Islanders have other problems. Say what you will about the Oilers' blue line, but the men patrolling the back end on the Island may be worse. Mark Streit is the only veteran locked into a contract beyond this year, and that's probably a good thing considering that the roster is a who's-who of badness. Milan Jurcina (minus-28), Mark Eaton (minus-12), Steve Staios (minus-13), and Dylan Reese (!?) make what the Oilers are packing look like the 2007 Anaheim Ducks.

Any other troubles? Sure!

The Islanders may lose one of their leading scorers in PA Parenteau to free agency. Also, after a monstrous 34 goal season last year, Michael Grabner has seen his production slip to 15 goals in 62 games. Rick DiPietro has played a total of 47 games over the last four seasons, and his contract (which expires in 2021!) makes Khabibulin's seem like a bargain. Evgeni Nabokov has been good as a replacement, but unless they can get him re-signed he'll be gone in the off season as well.

As you can see, it's a combination of really bad management, bad luck, and not selecting at the very top of the Draft that has made the Islanders this horrible. Their run of top-five picks actually makes them closer to the Columbus Blue Jackets than it does to the Oilers.

Make no mistake, however. Having a boatload of picks in the first round does not guarantee success for the Oilers. Having said that, the NHL Draft is a crapshoot and the more choices you have in the high-probability rounds, the better your odds of success. The Islanders haven't done as much as the Oilers have since 2007 when it comes to gathering extremely high end assets, which is why Edmonton and New York are very different. Having another pick as high as second (or even first) overall will only put the Oilers that much further ahead, and widen what will one day be a large gap between them.

02/28/12 After 62 Games

2012-02-28T19:20:00.000-08:00

It's that time again! Let's look at how the Oilers are doing after 62 games and compare it to how they were doing after 62 last year. Are they better this year? Is there a light at the end of this long, long tunnel?

First thing's first: the record. Last year after 62 games the Oilers had a record of 20-34-8 (48 points) and were 30th in the NHL, but this year they're sitting at 25-29-10 (60 points) and 29th. Let's face it, that sucks. But when it comes to the Oilers, it's real, tangible improvement. It's up to the individual to decide whether they're happy that things are better or appalled that it's going to be six straight years out of the playoffs. Considering that the Oilers didn't improve in any meaningful way last year and finished 30th for a second straight season, things appear to be looking up.

The Oilers won just 25 of the 82 games on the schedule last year, but they've already* won 25 of the 62 they've played so far in 2011-12.

So here's the breakdown season over season after 62:

2010-11

- The Oilers scored 155 goals

- Allowed 201 goals

- A goal differential of -46

- Fired 1648 shots on goal

- Allowed 1964 shots on goal

- Scored 30 powerplay goals

- Allowed 57 powerplay goals

2011-12

- The Oilers have scored 164 goals (15th in NHL)

- Allowed 180 goals (21st in NHL)

- A goal differential of -16

- Fired 1673 shots on goal (29th in NHL)

- Allowed 1923 shots on goal (21st in NHL)

- Scored 48 powerplay goals (2nd in NHL)

- Allowed 40 powerplay goals (18th in NHL)

As we've seen all season, the Oilers are better in every facet listed here, but the degree to which they have improved varies widely. Edmonton still isn't shooting enough and they're allowing too many shots on goal. The success of this team going forward looks like it will hinge on the Oilers using their speed to draw penalties and punish the opposition on the powerplay. At least until the kids can also dominate at even strength, that is.

When you frame it that way, it makes a little sense to have acquired a pure shutdown defender at the deadline, because too often this season the good work that has been done by the kids and the powerplay has been undone by poor own-zone play. I'm still not convinced that Schultz is an improvement over Gilbert in any meaningful sense, but as recently as last season he was facing the toughest competition of any Wild defenseman with some very difficult zone starts and managing to flourish.

Ironically, the fact that the Oilers aren't shooting enough is also a measure of their need for a puck moving defender in addition to Schultz. Whitney is very good when he's healthy, and Petry is rounding into one as well, and not a moment too soon. Those two will be a huge part of the back end in the future. There's still a need to add another true number one guy who would push everyone down the depth chart and into positions where they could (theoretically) be more dominant. A strong push for Suter in the off season wouldn't hurt, as long as they don't overpay.

David Staples at the Cult of Hockey wondered aloud if the Oilers are on the rise because of their improvements on the powerplay and in scoring chance plus/minus. The answer is yes, they are on the rise from where they were. How far up the ladder they go remains to be seen.

* "already!" Hahahaha.

02/28/12 Understanding the Gilbert Trade

2012-02-28T00:57:00.001-08:00

The Oilers followed up a solid re-signing of Ales Hemsky with a much less popular move on trade deadline day. The return for Gilbert, Nick Schultz, is a solid defender in his own right; but does he make the Oilers better?

The Skinny:

Schultz: 743 NHL games, 26-102-128, plus-8; 0.17 points per game; born August 25th 1982, age 29
Gilbert: 384 NHL games, 33-125-158, minus-29; 0.41 points per game; born January 10th 1983, age 29

We'll delve a lot deeper into the two players later on, but a quick glance at their career stats lines shows us a couple of things. First, Gilbert is a much better offensive defenseman and the Oilers (who already suffer from a less than offensively gifted back end) will miss his prowess in that department. Gilbert already has more goals in his career and he's played 359 fewer games.

Which brings us to the second point. Even though they are only 4 and a half months apart in age, Schultz has played almost twice as many games as Gilbert. That can be both good and bad. It's good because Schultz is depended on to be a shutdown defender who will make good decisions at key times, and that is something that comes with experience. It's bad because a player like Schultz, who blocks shots and plays tough minutes, will wear down more quickly than other players do. For him to have almost double the mileage of Gilbert at the same age has many pitfalls.

So why trade Gilbert for Schultz? The Oilers obviously felt the need to tighten up defensively and Schultz was perceived to be better at accomplishing that than Gilbert. Below is a comparison to see how the two stack up in a few key areas over the last three seasons. To judge Gilbert on seasons before that seems unfair because he's only been in the league for five full years.

Tom Gilbert has:

- averaged around 23:14 in ice time over the last three years
- a minus-28 rating
- 413 blocked shots
- 178 hits
- 208 giveaways
- faced the second-toughest competition among Oilers defensemen at even strength
- started his shifts an average of 50.5% of the time in the offensive zone at even strength
- the fourth, second and third best relative Corsi of Oilers defensemen at even strength

Nick Schultz has:

- averaged around 20:15 in ice time over the last three years
- a minus-22 rating
- 411 blocked shots
- 222 hits
- 72 giveaways
- faced the 5th, 1st, and 3rd toughest competition among Wild defensemen at even strength
- started his shifts an average of 42.1% of the time in the offensive zone at even strength
- the worst relative Corsi among Wild defensemen (20 or more GP) in two of the last three years, and the third-best two years ago

The two main differences here are that Schultz is leaned on much more outside the offensive zone, which is obviously having a negative effect on his Corsi. He's also less prone to giving away the puck. Considering that the Oilers are last in the NHL in giveaways, that must be something they valued.

Tom Gilbert is more dynamic, however, in that he can be used on the powerplay while Schultz is not. If the Oilers intend to tighten up defensively, they must expect more from Schultz on the penalty kill than they were getting from Gilbert. How have their results been?

Schultz has spent 147:54 killing penalties for the Wild this season. With that said, he's been on the ice for 6.99 goals against per 60 minutes of shorthanded ice time.

Gilbert has spent 153:38 killing penalties for the Oilers this season. He's been on the ice for 4.85 goals against per 60 minutes of shorthanded ice time.

So, Gilbert has spent more time killing penalties this season and has had better results. The numbers from one season do not tell the whole story, but based on those numbers Schultz is not an upgrade over Gilbert on the penalty kill, and certainly not on the powerplay. Schultz can handle himself at even strength against tough competition and zone starts, but not so much so that he is a massive upgrade over Tom Gilbert.

Unless the Oilers see something that I don't, I have a hard time counting this trade as a win.

02/25/12 Khabibulin and Toronto

2012-02-25T19:47:00.000-08:00

The Maple Leafs may be looking to solidify their goaltending situation and they have been linked to the Oilers and Khabibulin recently. If a trade were to occur between the two teams, what would the Leafs give up in exchange for an aging goalie with another year left on his contract?

As mentioned above, Khabibulin's contract - $3.75 million with another year remaining - is an albatross that is getting in the way of moving him just about anywhere. In order to move it the Oilers would probably need to take a bad contract back. Do the Leafs have any of those? You bet!

The Oilers don't need to add another forward, and certainly not another expensive one, which leaves defensemen. Toronto would like to shed Mike Komisarek's salary at $4.5 million per season; a deal which goes on for another two years after this one. Komisarek, 30, has been a healthy scratch several times this season, which is certainly not what you want from a player with that price tag. He's appeared in 29 games and posted 1-3-4 and a minus-2 with 30 penalty minutes.

According to Behindthenet, Komisarek has had the toughest even strength zone starts of any Toronto blueliner, starting his shifts in the the offensive zone 42% of the time. He also seems to face some of the easiest competition, but has the second-worst relative Corsi of all Leafs defenders at -10.4 at even strength. Komisarek plays an average of 16:28 per game, which is third-least of Leafs defensemen. He's used on the second penalty kill unit, but not at all on the powerplay.

In short, he's not a solution for the Oilers. Komisarek is basically a much more expensive version of Andy Sutton, and the Oilers already have one of those that many fans and analysts feel will be overpaid next year at a $1.75 million cap hit. If the Oilers must take on Komisarek to do a deal with Toronto, they're better off standing pat.

There are other options (Chicago or Tampa Bay perhaps) for a trade involving Khabibulin, but don't be surprised if he isn't moved. The veteran goaltender's contract is a bad one, but it's less onerous than what the Oilers may need to take back to get him gone.

02/24/12 Fans... Happy! Hemsky Stays

2012-02-24T17:48:00.000-08:00

Ales Hemsky decided to forgo free agency and sign a new two year deal with the Oilers worth $10 million. This is a very positive move for the organization, and after taking a lot of flak from the media and fans, Tambellini got it right.

Some in the media, like Scott Burnside, don't believe the deal was a good one. Burnside tweeted: "Ales Hemsky; two years $10 million just goes to show you $10 million doesn't get you too far in the NHL these days does it?"

CapGeek posted their list of comparable contracts to the deal Hemsky just signed, and only 6 of the 20 names listed have averaged more points per game over their careers than Hemsky. Of those players, the average points per game pace is 0.74. Ales Hemsky has posted 0.79 points per game since he entered the NHL. So, for better or worse injury-wise, the Oilers signed their man to a contract that pretty much fits with Hemsky's value.

It's fantastic to see the Oilers realize that replacing Hemsky would have been much more difficult than re-signing him, and it may have come at a greater cost anyway. Considering the chemistry Hemsky has shown with Hall, it's better to stick with the devil you know than the one you don't.

Fans should be very happy with this signing. The money is right, and the term (Hemsky's deal expires at the same time as that of Nugent-Hopkins) is right as well. It's an encouraging sign from management, and almost everyone will agree that for once they deserve to be praised.

02/24/12 Thoughts On Improvement

2012-02-24T03:05:00.002-08:00

24 wins. The Oilers achieved them in 60 games this year, after taking 78 games to win that many last year. As bleak as things have seemed at times this season, when the Oil win one more game they'll have matched their win output from all of last year. They have 22 more games to win 27, which would tie their total from the entire 2009-10 season.

The Oilers have earned a positive review after dismantling the Flames and shutting out the league's most potent offense from Philadelphia, so the rest of this article will be devoted to something that has become popularized on Twitter: Oilerspositives. ... But not sarcastic ones.

- Jordan Eberle scored his 60th point of the season on Thursday, and he's now on pace for 84 total. The last Oiler to have 80 or more points was Doug Weight back in 2000-01 when he put up 90. That's also the last time the Oilers had a player who scored at a point-per-game pace or better. Taylor Hall is on pace for 65 points as well, and the last time the Oilers had two players score 60+ points was back in 2005-06. That year they had four players who surpassed sixty points, including Hemsky (77), Horcoff (73), Stoll (68), and Smyth (66).

- Ales Hemsky has six points in 10 games in February. Not huge numbers by his standards, but there are signs everywhere that his game is coming around. Hemsky has shown considerable chemistry with Taylor Hall over the last couple of games. When Ryan Smyth was traded, a gaping hole was left on Hemsky's left wing that the Oilers never really managed to fill. After trying to fit Erik Cole in that slot, and failing to acquire Marian Hossa and Dany Heatley, the Oilers finally found their man at the draft in Hall. Now that the Oilers have their sniper to compliment Hemsky on a line, they would be extremely unwise to trade #83. Happily, there are reports all over Twitter that the Oilers may finally be making a real push to re-sign Hemsky. That would give them two very dynamic scoring lines going forward. Hall and Hemsky could form one tandem, with Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle on the other.

- Ryan Whitney has put up 8 points in his last 11 games since January 31st. That's more like the Whitney that the Oilers and their fans are used to, and were expecting at the start of the season. That's a 60 point pace over a full 82 game season. 60 points aren't necessarily demanded of Whitney, but to see him start to make an impact on the scoresheet is a major positive.

- Losing part of the pre-season and the first few games of the year can take a lot away from a player. In his first 13 games, Sam Gagner had 2 points. Since then, however, he's put up 14-24-38 in 40 games and been very nearly a point-per-game player. Of course one cannot discount the fact that Gagner wasn't producing at the beginning of the year, but since November 22nd he's been on pace for 29-49-78 over an 82 game schedule.

- How about that Jeff Petry fella? Since the beginning of January he's got 1-11-12 in 23 games and he's really been coming into his own both offensively and defensively. Say what you will about plus/minus, but Petry - who has played 20+ minutes in every game this month - has been a plus-1 in February. You have to go all the way back to December 31st to find a game that Petry participated in and didn't play a minimum of 20 minutes. He's becoming a go-to guy for the Oil.

- The Oilers are a .500 team since Nugent-Hopkins went down again with injury at 3-3-1. How will they be when he returns?

- Including one shootout goal, Taylor Hall now has seven game winners on the season. Even if you're a purist and don't count the shootout, that means that Hall has scored one quarter of the goals that resulted in Oilers wins in 2011-12.

***

Oil Acumen turns one year old today (ain't it cute!?). 12 months, 157 posts and nearly 28,000 page views later, I'd like to thank all the people who have helped this blog to grow. There have been lots (and none have gone unnoticed), but particular thanks are owed to Wanye from OilersNation, Derek Zona and the Copper and Blue, Raine from Oilogosphere.com, and most importantly to every single person who has ever read this blog. I sincerely hope that it's been as enjoyable for you to read as it was for me to write, and I look forward to continuing to give you my best. Hopefully the next year(s) will see even better things to come.

- Jake

02/22/12 The Rivalry

2012-02-21T22:49:00.000-08:00

That felt good, didn't it? It's hard to believe that the last time the Oilers beat Calgary was the first game of last season when Eberle scored The Goal. Despite the difference between the two in Tuesday's game and over the past two seasons, they aren't so far apart.

The Flames have had one heck of a run in the month of February, with a 5-0-3 record coming into Tuesday's action. Over those eight games Calgary scored just 20 goals (2.5 per game, which would be 22nd in the NHL) and scored 3 powerplay goals on 26 opportunities (11.5%). How on earth were they winning? Miikka Kiprusoff sported a 0.947 Sv% during those eight games. Oilers fans are familiar with a winning streak stemming from unsustainably high goaltending performance, and know that there is a gap between results and the actual quality of the team during that time.

The Flames have now been outshot in all but one of their games in the month of February (and 8 straight), and if Kiprusoff doesn't stand on his head, his team doesn't have a realistic chance to win. Kiprusoff had a 0.933 Sv% in 2003-04 when the Flames went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, but that was over a span of just 38 games. 0.947 is not a sustainable level of performance, just like Khabibulin's early season performance wasn't.

With 2.66 Goals For per Game the Flames are 26th in the NHL. The Oilers are 15th in that regard. Calgary is 12th in Goals Against per Game at 2.62, while the Oilers are 24th at 2.95. Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum; both good at one end and bad at the other.

Both teams are near the bottom of the league in Shots per Game, and in the bottom-third in Shots Against per Game. Calgary is 30th in team faceoff percentage and the Oilers are 26th. The 5x5 Goals For/Against Ratio of the two teams are virtually dead even at 0.88 (Calgary) and 0.87 (Edmonton). Less than one percent separates the PK% of the two, but the Oilers are superior on the powerplay at 21% while Calgary is sitting at 16.8%.

The Oilers are 29th in the NHL, while the Flames are fighting for a playoff spot, but that's somewhat surprising given how little separates Alberta's teams. With equal goaltending it's not a stretch to say that Edmonton and Calgary would both be in lottery position.

It may sound ridiculous given how much Kiprusoff means to Calgary's success, but now would be the time to trade him. He's playing some of the best hockey of his career, and there are teams out there (Tampa Bay and Columbus come to mind) that may be willing to give up a lot in exchange for Kipper that could actually help turn the Flames around in the long term. Of course that won't happen, and Oilers fans are happier for it.

There was a time when little separated the Oilers and Flames because both teams were the elite of the NHL, but things are on the other side of that coin now. Without major changes in Calgary, is it out of the question to think the Oilers will pass them next year?

02/18/12 Hemsky A Shark?

2012-02-18T13:13:00.000-08:00

With the increasing likelihood of Ales Hemsky being traded, it doesn't hurt to glance around the league and see what potential return the Oilers could get for their skilled winger. Though his value is at its lowest ever, the San Jose Sharks could have some interest in him.

It's premature to suggest that Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are old enough to have lost their competitive edge, but with both now 32 years old that time is coming. The window for winning a Stanley Cup is closing for the Sharks, and with Martin Havlat injured and underperforming even when he's in the lineup, there is a need for a right winger in San Jose.

The one thing the Oilers have going for them is that the number of wingers that are available is small, so they may still get a decent price for Hemsky. A quick glance at San Jose's system shows that they still have a few prospects that may be of interest to Edmonton.

Taylor Doherty is a 6'7", 235 pound behemoth of a defenseman with a right handed shot, who projects to be a solid stay-at-homer. The Sharks took him in the second round (57th overall) of the Paajarvi draft (2009), and this year he's playing in his first full season for Worcester of the AHL. His size and shutdown ability would both be appealing to the Oilers, and the long development period for this type of player may make him expendable for the Sharks, as their time is now. Unfortunately, the Oilers are in need of a defenseman that can step in as early as next season, and Doherty isn't that player.

One possible man for that job is Nick Petrecki, who is 6'3", 230 pounds and is another shut-down type. Petrecki is a product of the Gagner draft (2007), having gone 28th overall to the Sharks. He has a mean streak and brings toughness with him, but that is a skill set already filled by Colten Teubert. However, Petrecki is in his third full year in the AHL, and to this point he has played 178 games there. He doesn't bring much offense, but he's accumulated a whopping 303 penalty minutes in that time.

Also a product of the 2007 draft is Justin Braun, who has earned a spot in the Sharks' lineup this season. It's an impressive achievement, considering that Braun (6'2", 200 lbs) was selected 201st overall in the seventh round. Braun is reported to have decent offensive capabilities and collected 24 points in 43 career AHL games, and 4-15-19 in 70 games with San Jose.

Any of these three could be part of the conversation when it comes to a deal for Hemsky, but none of them offer a real solution to the Oilers' defensive woes. At the end of the day the Oilers would be better off keeping Hemsky rather than trading him for third-pairing defensive types, but a trade is probably inevitable.

Another consideration is that some the the Oilers' own property like Martin Marincin, or perhaps even Klefbom, Musil, Davidson and Blain will be ready for the AHL next season, so adding another tweener is not necessarily in Edmonton's interest at the moment. But if Hemsky is not going to be extended, he must be traded somewhere for something that could potentially be useful. At least building defensive depth would help if the Oilers ever wanted to make a trade for a defender that could make an impact at the NHL level.

02/17/12 Quite Quiet

2012-02-17T03:33:00.000-08:00

The good people over at TSN and SportsNet may be disappointed this February 27th, as the NHL trade deadline could prove to be somewhat uneventful. They'll start their coverage before the sun is up and some of you will be watching, but will anything major happen?

For the Oilers' part, it appears that Ales Hemsky is the only name that is actually on the market, and his value is at an all-time low. If he does get traded, it won't be for the stud defenseman that the Oilers so desperately need. If and when a trade like that comes to pass, it will be in the off season. Right now teams won't want to mess around too much with their chemistry as they gear up for a playoff run, which eliminates plenty of options from Edmonton's sights at the moment. Aside from that, the biggest movable asset that the Oilers have at their disposal is this year's first round pick, and teams won't want to make a major play for it until the draft order is set.

Rick Nash and Jeff Carter are the two biggest names that could move at the deadline, but the amount of cap space that will have to be shifted around will severely limit potential deals. In order to take on Nash's $7.8 million hit a team would have to move a significant amount of roster players, and that's unlikely to be desirable for clubs that are already good enough to be inside the playoff picture. The same goes for Carter, who carries a $5.272 million cap hit, but that two-and-a-half million dollar savings over Nash may make it more possible that he'll be in a new home before the end of this month. There will be major changes in Columbus, but they could be later rather than sooner.

If the Leafs weren't in the thick of the playoff race out East, the rumblings around Luke Schenn would probably be even louder than they are now. Having not made the playoffs since before the lockout, even Old Stony himself, Brian Burke, will be feeling the pressure to get his team in. Unless a deal knocks his socks off there probably won't be major changes in Toronto before the end of the year.

Players that would normally be heavily involved in trade talks like Zach Parise and Ryan Suter happen to be on teams that are comfortably inside the playoff picture, which puts the big ol' kibosh on any movement. In addition to that their current clubs will do whatever they can to re-sign them, and probably believe that they still can. Making the playoffs and potentially going on a run would help New Jersey and Nashville convince two of the game's best to stay put.

If the 9th-place Washington Capitals miss the playoffs they may engage in a major shakeup, but Mike Green probably won't be available. There are a lot of factors at work on the Caps this year, but they won seven straight out of the gate with Green in the lineup and as soon as he got hurt they started to lose. With Green playing this season Washington is 9-1-0.

Earlier in the year it seemed to be almost a certainty that there would be major developments in Anaheim, with Bobby Ryan a popular name in the rumor mill. Lubomir Visnovsky is another player that could have been relocated at the deadline, but the Ducks have put serious doubt in the belief that they were dead. How good have they been lately? Well, they've only gone 14-3-3 in their last 20 games and collected 31 of a possible 40 points. They're not quite in the middle of things yet, but they are doing enough to convince just about anyone that the kind of wholesale changes that were being discussed this year are unnecessary.

Teemu Selanne might have been an attractive rental player for some team at the deadline, and so too would Ryan Smyth, but those two seem intent on staying with their current teams. Both have No-Move Clauses in their contracts, which means they control their own fate anyway.

There are some major trades bubbling under the surface in the NHL, but many of them may be too radical to happen right away. Sure, guys like Ryan O'Marra, Nicklas Grossman, Pavel Kubina and even Ales Hemsky have been or may get moved, but the really earth-shattering stuff is more plausible after the Stanley Cup has been won.

But deadline day is fun, so I hope that I'm wrong.

02/13/12 Fixing This Mess

2012-02-13T14:39:00.000-08:00

The time before the NHL trade deadline is shrinking and so is the confidence of Oilers fans that Steve Tambellini can make something big happen. As has been covered at great length, Ales Hemsky appears to be a mishandled asset, but there may still be a way to navigate these troubled times.

David Shoalts from The Globe and Mail wrote that the Chicago Blackhawks are in need of an experienced goaltender to help push them over the top for the rest of the season and the playoffs, and that Nikolai Khabibulin may be the only man available. It's unclear whether the Hawks would want to add an aging goalie with another year left on his contract, but they do have some experience with Khabibulin.

If the Oilers can move Khabibulin to the Blackhawks - or any team for that matter - they'd be well advised to do it. As Jonathan Willis wrote at OilersNation, there really is no need to spend a huge amount of money on goaltending in order to get reasonable results unless you're talking about the absolute elite. Devan Dubnyk could have done worse than Khabibulin as a goaltending mentor for this part of his career, and Khabibulin has certainly redeemed himself with his play in the eyes of many, but it may be time for he and the Oilers to part ways. If Khabby doesn't get traded his cap hit will still come off the books when the Oilers' rookies need new contracts, but freeing up a goalie spot allows the Oilers to make another move now.

Darren Dreger said that a deal between the Oilers and Kings involving Ales Hemsky and Jonathan Bernier might make some sense. With the market for top-six forwards as thin as it's ever been at deadline time, the asking price for a player like Hemsky will be relatively high. Whether Hemsky still has enough value to snatch a player like Bernier away from the Kings is unknown, but there are other goalies out there.

St. Louis prospect Ben Bishop was just named MVP of the AHL All Star Game and has posted a solid season for Peoria this season with a 2.30 GAA, a 0.926 Sv% and a 22-13-0 record. Unless he gets into 17 NHL games this year it appears that he will become an Unrestricted Free Agent this summer. If the Oilers were to trade Hemsky for a package that included Bishop they could try to play him in the required number of games and retain his rights as a Restricted Free Agent.

Trades that send Khabibulin and Hemsky away for a goaltender with potential sound like an improvement if you frame them right, but they would be no more than a lateral move at best. These trades would simply help to undo the mess that has already been made. It would allow the Oilers to part ways with Khabibulin a year early without buying him out, and actually get something they need in exchange for Hemsky. Not exactly earth-shattering, but that's the situation we're faced with.

02/10/12 Tambellini Botched the Hemsky Situation

2012-02-10T16:27:00.000-08:00

Robin Brownlee wrote an article that appeared on OilersNation today which encapsulates all of the most frustrating feelings when it comes to the Ales Hemsky situation. We're at the point now where none of the moves that are possible make sense. No matter what happens, this issue will help fan the flames of hatred toward Steve Tambellini.

In the past I've been quick to point out that not all of the problems with the Oilers are the result of Tambellini's work in Edmonton, but the way Ales Hemsky has been handled is unquestionably a glaring wart on the General Manager's resume. Hemsky's play of late hasn't made things easy, but regardless of that there were better options.

As yet, there appears to be very little interest on Oilers management's side in signing the enigmatic winger to a contract extension, which implies that they knew they were going to trade him all along. If that is the case, why not move him at the deadline last year? Hemsky was healthy for the month of February last season, and posted 4-8-12 in 13 games. March 1st was his last game of 2010-11. Tambellini may have thought that Hemsky's value would increase this season if he successfully returned from injury and played like he was in a contract year, but that hasn't been the case. In any event, Hemsky is still just a rental player this year, which means the ceiling for his value is only so high no matter how well he plays. Whatever deals Tambellini walked away from in February or back in June at the draft are going to look pretty sweet when compared to the current value of #83.

With that said, there's always the option of signing the player to an extension, which management seems to think is not an option. There are only so many top six wingers out there and the Oilers are about to let one slip through their fingers. Barring some kind of amazing turnaround, the situation is an embarrassment.

Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford is making the Oilers look even worse. Realizing how difficult it would be to replace the players he already has, Rutherford locked up Tim Gleason to a four year contract extension and has expressed a desire to sign Tuomo Ruutu. Ruutu was supposed to be the first big shoe to drop and set the market value for a top-six forward, but he may not be moved at all. The Hurricanes will no doubt try very hard over the next couple of weeks to come to an agreement with Ruutu, and failing that they still have the option to trade him. That's how you handle your players properly and with respect.

By comparison, what the Oilers appear to be doing is just bizarre. If management fails to show any commitment to Hemsky, what possible reason would he have for wanting to stay in Edmonton?

An asset that was once valuable enough to be in the conversation of a Brayden Schenn trade is now at risk of leaving this city forever for next to nothing. Unless one of the teams that is in the market for a top-six forward overpays at the deadline, this gross miscalculation will be one of the worst of Tambellini's tenure.

02/08/12 Odds & Ends: Gagner Facts

2012-02-08T23:32:00.000-08:00

Sam Gagner continued his ridiculous scoring streak on Wednesday against Detroit. Despite the fact that he has missed 7 games this season due to injury, he is now on pace to set new career highs in goals (21) and points (57). This was the year he was supposed to take a step forward, and he may just be doing it.

Before this season Gagner had collected 173 points in 291 games, which is good for 0.59 points per game on average. He set a career high for goals as a sophomore with 16 and a career high for assists as a rookie with 36, but the last two injury-plagued seasons have seen his production drop off. Right now he's averaging 0.77 points per game and he needs just two more goals to match his output in the last two seasons.

Is this the shiny, new-and-improved Sam Gagner, or an anomaly?

It took Sam 64 games to score 13 goals last season, while this year he's done it in 47. There's some room for debate about whether or not he'll reach 20 goals this year, but unless his production falls off a cliff he should at least set a new career mark in that regard. With 13 goals on just 97 shots, Gagner has a shooting percentage of 13.4%. That's the highest of his career, but it's not outrageous for an NHL player.

As of this writing, Sam Gagner is a plus-2 on the season. If he manages to finish the year with a positive plus/minus it will be the first time in his career. His rookie season was the worst at minus-21, and last year he was minus-17. At least part of that has to do with the quality of team that he was on, but it's not like the Oilers are a playoff team right now. There's still plenty of hockey to be played though, and a plus-2 is too precarious to say that Gagner is absolutely going to be a plus player this year.

Gagner's faceoff percentage is better this year too; currently sitting at 48.8%. So far in his career Gagner's best year in the dot saw him win 47.4% of the time. That was two years ago. He regressed a little last season after taking a career high 935 draws and winning 43.8% of them, which is a reminder that we won't know the real story about the faceoff ability of #89 until the season is over. So far in 2011-12 he's taken only 324 draws.

Being a pending Restricted Free Agent means that Gagner is playing for a new contract. He won't keep up the pace he's currently at (8-7-15 in his last 5 games), but if he manages to keep scoring at his 0.77 p/g clip and finishes with 57 points he will be in some elite company. 57 points would have been good for the top 64 in points in the NHL last year. Among the players who scored 57 points:

Ray Whitney, Tuomo Ruutu, Justin Williams, Jason Spezza, Paul Stastny, Patrice Bergeron, Tomas Plekanec, RJ Umberger, Marian Hossa, Dustin Brown and Nikolai Kulemin

Average salary of those players: $4.53 million.

That's too high for Gagner at this point in his career. Many of those names listed above are established NHL veterans and Sam isn't there yet, but he's definitely in line for a raise. His number will probably fall in the $3 million to $4 million range, but it will be interesting to see how much term the Oilers commit.

Right now a lot of fans are probably looking for a deal that's somewhere in the order of 10 years.

02/06/12 I Hate Losing To Toronto

2012-02-06T20:29:00.000-08:00

Ha!

That picture is funny, but losing to the Toronto Maple Leafs isn't. I know there are people out there who will say that Toronto is their second favorite team from back in the day when you could only either cheer for the Leafs or Habs, but damnit, things are different now.

Toronto is now the home of Dion Phaneuf and Phil Kessel and Brian Burke. Say what you will about them being good at what they do, but losing to them just plain sucks.

Ralph Kreuger has a bit of a hill to climb if he ever wants to be an NHL head coach. Of all Oilers forwards, only the magnificent and exulted Sam Gagner played more than Ales Hemsky (not so much exulted). Hemsky finished as a minus-4 with no points and one shot on goal. Remember that tired old expression about the definition of insanity? That may be a little harsh, except that we kept seeing Cam Barker and Tom Gilbert as a tandem after it was clear that experiment had failed miserably. Gilbert hasn't played since January second, you say? Pair him up with Mr. Unreliable and have at 'er! Barker and Gilbert finished up at minus-3 and minus-2 respectively.

There were calls on Twitter for Gilbert and Smid to be reunited during the game, and that may not have been a bad idea. If Barker is Mr. Unreliable, then Laddy is Old Faithful (minus the geyser part). Smid came in at plus-3 on the evening in a 6-3 loss where there were no powerplay opportunities! His partner Petry was then free to play a more offensive style, which worked out well for him as he banked a goal and an assist. Petry led all Oilers in ice time with 22:59, and made pretty good use of it.

Horcoff and Belanger didn't get a thing accomplished offensively, but they managed to keep the opposition off the scoreboard as well. Both were even on the night, so take from that whatever it's worth. Ryan Smyth, on the other hand, finished as a minus-3 and really could have used that goal of his if it had counted. He's sitting on just 4 goals in his last 31 games played, stretching all the way back to November 26th. In case you're wondering, he potted 12 goals in the 22 games previous to that.

Nugent-Hopkins is in a similar position. He left the game as a precautionary measure to protect his shoulder, but collected a minus-3 in his 15 minutes of ice time. The last goal the Nuge scored was back on December 7th against Carolina. He's been out with injury, but that's still a span of 12 games without lighting the lamp. It's easy to say that if he comes back he should be paired with Hall and Eberle, but having those two with the more mature Gagner seems to have helped them.

Not only has Gagner been other-wordly offensively in the last several games, he's also managed to bring his faceoff win percentage up to a respectable level. After 310 tries in the dot Gagner has won 151 times (48.7% of the time), which is not far off of Shawn Horcoff's total of 49.6%. In a perfect world we'd all like to see Gagner get up to Belanger-like levels of effectiveness, but the leap he's taken means he's becoming a solid all-around option for a second line center. As if you didn't already know. That means the Oilers don't have to send out Horcoff on the powerplay just to win a draw and set up the play, which is a huge boon for the team as a whole.

The powerplay would probably have helped the Oilers against Toronto. The Leaf's penalty kill works its magic just 75.9% of the time. Only the Columbus Blue Jackets are worse killing penalties. Toronto is also tied for 29th with Ottawa for most powerplay goals allowed at 41. Being third-best in the NHL on the powerplay, a game without penalties was not what the Oilers wanted to see.

But that up tempo style of play sure was exciting to watch. Even though the Oilers lost, a fan could watch an entire season of hockey like that and be wildly entertained. I just can't watch it happen against Toronto. So Oilers, do us all a favor and take it to them on the 15th.

02/05/12 Signs of Progress?

2012-02-05T23:06:00.000-08:00

There are 30 games left on the schedule for the Oilers' 2011-12 season, and plenty of questions to be asked about how things are going. There have been a lot of criticisms, and long stretches of the year have been a struggle. But are things getting better? Below is a look at a few key areas after 52 games.

Let's start with the team record. The Oilers are currently sitting at 21-26-5 with 47 points. After 52 games in 2010-11 they were 15-29-8 with 38 points. The Oilers had 38 points after 52 games in 2009-10 as well, with a record of 16-30-6. That's 38 of a possible 104 points, while this year they've collected 47 of a possible 104.

The improvement isn't staggering, and it isn't going to cause anyone to jump out of their seats, but isn't that exactly the kind of marginal push forward that we all expected?

The Oilers' worst stretch of games this season were from November 26th to January 21st, where they went 5-18-2 in a 25 game span. They were without Ryan Whitney, Cam Barker, Tom Gilbert, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall and Corey Potter for all or part of that time. Hall was the quickest of the group to return, having missed 8 games including the one against Colorado where the injury occurred. Jordan Eberle was also out for 5 games in that downswing for the Oilers (including the one against Dallas), and in those games the Oil were 1-3-1. Without Hall the Oilers were 2-5-1.

It's a familiar tune from me at this point, but the Oilers aren't deep enough to be able to sustain those kinds of injuries at once at still remain competitive. Is there any team that could?

After 52 games last year the Oilers had:

- scored 113 goals
- allowed 173 goals against
- a goal differential of -60
- scored 23 powerplay goals
- allowed 50 powerplay goals against

Despite the injuries, this year they have:

- scored 135 goals (+22 over last year)
- allowed 148 goals against (+25 over last year)
- a goal differential of -13 (+47 over last year)
- scored 43 powerplay goals (+20 over last year)
- allowed 34 powerplay goals against (+16 over last year)

Obviously there's also the offensive strides taken by the Oilers' young, talented stars. Jordan Eberle has already eclipsed his team-leading 43 points from last season and is on pace for a lot more. It stands to reason that no fewer than five Oilers players will put up more than 43 points; including Gagner, Smyth, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle.

This is still a team in 28th place in the NHL and there are still plenty of holes to fill, but there are signs that this thing has started to come around. When you're starting at the bottom that's not an especially difficult goal to accomplish, however. What this data shows is only that the team is improving, but there's a long way to go before we can think about Stanley.

02/01/12 Shea Weber Offer Sheet

2012-02-01T18:15:00.000-08:00

If there's one team that knows a thing or two about offer sheets, it's the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers have had six of their own players signed to offer sheets since 1988, which is more than any other team in the league. And, of course, there were the two offer sheets tendered to Thomas Vanek and Dustin Penner back in 2007. But would the Oilers be interested in extending such an offer to Shea Weber?

As a pending Restricted Free Agent, any offer to Shea Weber cannot be less than his current salary of $7.5 million. If the offer sheet is for $7,835,219 or more, the team that tenders it must surrender four first round draft picks to the original team. In this case, the Oilers would give up four first rounders to Nashville.

That's a hell of a gamble for a team that has been at the top end of the draft for four straight years including this one. The good news is that the Oilers will already have made their selection in 2012 in this scenario, so if the team manages to be respectable from next season on the picks they gave up wouldn't be so high. Also, you could go through four full drafts and never find a defenseman that is as complete or as NHL-ready as Weber.

On the other hand, some of the Oilers' current depth is eventually going to either graduate or be moved on, which means that it will be difficult to replenish the system when lacking first round picks for four years. This isn't a practice that winning teams usually get involved in, and beyond that it may be unnecessary.

If the Oilers want to back a dump truck full of money onto a defenseman's lawn in the off season, they could always do so with Weber's teammate Ryan Suter, who is a UFA. Signing him would require no compensation for Nashville. The Oilers may want to keep that dump truck in the driveway, however, because contract extensions for Hall, Eberle and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are right around the corner. So too is a new Collective Bargaining Agreement for the NHL, which could also have an impact on big money contracts and what is (and isn't) allowed. Failing all that, the Oilers could also wait until Weber enters unrestricted free agency himself, as it appears that he is unwilling to stay in the music city long term.

And if that's the case, it wouldn't make sense for Weber to sign an offer sheet at all. Does a contract exist that the Predators wouldn't match if they were given the chance? Probably not. The trouble with extending Weber seems to be the term, not the amount of cash he's after. Like Suter, the Predators' captain wants to make sure that his team is committed to winning a Stanley Cup. If he doesn't feel that Nashville is the place to win, he'll bolt for greener pastures. So with that said, why would Weber sign a long term offer sheet (which is the only kind that would be worthwhile) knowing that his current team could simply match it and lock him up for the long haul?

He probably wouldn't, and the Oilers almost certainly won't give him the chance. Neither will any other NHL team, as the whole league salivates over the possibility of another one year contract for Weber in Nashville and then a stab at him in unrestricted free agency.

01/27/12 The Story of How We Got Here

2012-01-27T12:52:00.000-08:00

When Steve Tambellini took over as General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers, the team was already on the verge of collapse. The Springfield Falcons were built well enough before he took over to finish the year in last place in the AHL, while the Stockton Thunder were 8th out of 9 teams in their Conference (but only the 9th team misses the playoffs). The previous management had left the Oilers virtually bereft of organizational depth and there was next to no NHL-calibre talent in the system. Of the regulars on the 2008-09 Springfield Falcons, only Gilbert Brule, Theo Peckham and Devan Dubnyk are in the NHL today.

The Lowe era was so casual about player development that they didn't even have an exclusive AHL team in 2005-06; instead splitting their prospects between the Hamilton Bulldogs and Iowa Stars, where they saw limited playing time.

In his first year as Oilers GM, the team Tambellini started the year with were all holdovers from the previous management. That team was not good enough to make the playoffs, and Tambellini's first major move (Cole and a 5th round pick for O'Sullivan and Kotalik) didn't put them over the top. In 2009-10, just three Oilers regulars were Tambellini acquisitions: O'Sullivan, Comrie and Khabibulin. A season ending injury to the starting goaltender and a load of mediocre players torpedoed the season, and Oilers management was forced to accept that it was time to rebuild.

The old, underachieving core was jettisoned but the options in the system for replacing them were extremely limited. The Springfield Falcons were also in last place for a second straight year; with Dubnyk, Petry and Peckham being the only players from that team who have become legitimate NHLers. Jordan Eberle was the only impact player to join the Oilers in 2010-11 who was acquired in the Lowe era. Lubomir Visnovsky, who will be 36 this August, was replaced by Ryan Whitney who will be 29 on February 19th of this year. Tambellini acquisitions Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi joined the ranks in 2010-11, as did Ryan Jones, Kurtis Foster, Jim Vandermeer and Colin Fraser. Khabibulin returned from injury and put in a nightmarish season and the Oilers finished 30th again.

This year things were supposed to be better. 17 of the players currently on the roster are Tambellini acquisitions, and they have had varying degrees of success. The defense was not constructed properly and lacked experience, and the only possible reason for this is to give the organization's own young defenders more playing time. Whether that is best for their development in the long term remains to be seen, but it has been a major factor in the Oilers' struggles this season. Another round of useless players was removed from the third and fourth lines and replaced with ones that have better track records; including Belanger, Eager and Hordichuk. Despite some of their difficulties this year it's hard to argue that they aren't a better group than Zack Stortini, JF Jacques and Andrew Cogliano. The Belanger signing wouldn't have been necessary if Tambellini had simply held on to Kyle Brodziak, which is one of the most glaringly bad and needless trades of his tenure. But at the end of the day the Oilers are still too young, too inexperienced and lacking in depth to compete at the NHL level.

The AHL level is a different story, however. The Oilers' AHL franchise was brought out of dormancy in 2010-11 and relocated to Oklahoma City. Todd Nelson was hired as head coach, and the team was stocked with quality free agents that will help transition the team until the Oilers' own draft picks are ready to take the reigns. The Barons made the playoffs in their first year and are currently in first place in the AHL.

It hasn't all been roses, though. Tambellini was part of the embarrassment that was the nixed Dany Heatley trade as well. Given the established fact that the Oilers had very limited depth, trading Ladislav Smid, Andrew Cogliano and Dustin Penner at that time could have been disastrous. Not only that, but Heatley is not currently worth Ladislav Smid, Colten Teubert, Oscar Klefbom, plus second and third round picks; which is what the Oilers ended up with. In fairness, however, Tambellini is the one who acquired those assets as well.
Nikolai Khabibulin has been better this season, but overall his signing has been a mistake, and the Kyle Brodziak fiasco has already been covered. The handling of the Sheldon Souray situation was odd, but his grievances went all the way back to his first year in Edmonton when Kevin Lowe was at the helm, so losing Souray was probably inevitable.

Below is a list of Steve Tambellini's key moves since taking over:

- Traded Mathieu Garon to Pittsburgh for Ryan Stone, Dany Sabourin and a pick that became Tobias Rieder

- Traded Erik Cole and a 5th round pick (Matt Kennedy) to Carolina for Patrick O'Sullivan and a second round pick. This pick was traded to Buffalo for Ales Kotalik

- Traded Kyle Brodziak and a 6th round pick (Darcy Kuemper) to Minnesota for fifth and sixth round picks that became Kyle Bigos and Olivier Roy

- Attempted to trade Dustin Penner, Andrew Cogliano and Ladislav Smid to Ottawa for Dany Heatley

- Signed Nikolai Khabibulin to a four year contract at $3.75 million per year

- Waived Rob Schremp

- Signed Mike Comrie

- Traded Denis Grebeshkov to Nashville for a pick that became Curtis Hamilton

- Traded Lubomir Visnovsky to Anaheim for Ryan Whitney and a pick that became Brandon Davidson

- Claimed Ryan Jones off waivers

- Traded Steve Staios to Calgary(!) for Aaron Johnson and a pick that became Travis Ewanyk

- Acquired Colin Fraser from Chicago for a 6th round pick that became Mirko Hoefflin

- Traded Riley Nash for a pick that became Martin Marincin

- Traded Patrick O'Sullivan to Phoenix for Jim Vandermeer

- Bought out Robert Nilsson

- Waived Ethan Moreau

- Signed Kurtis Foster

- Did not re-sign Marc Pouliot

- Forced Sheldon Souray to toil in the AHL on loan to Hershey

- Traded Dustin Penner to LA for Colten Teubert, Oscar Klefbom and a third round pick in 2012

- Bought out Sheldon Souray

- Signed Taylor Fedun

- Signed Lennart Petrell

- Traded Colin Fraser and a 7th round pick in 2012 to LA for Ryan Smyth

- Traded Kurtis Foster for Andy Sutton

- Signed Corey Potter

- Signed Ben Eager, Darcy Hordichuk, Eric Belanger and Cam Barker

- Signed Yann Danis

- Traded Andrew Cogliano to Anaheim for a second round pick in 2013

Does this man deserve a contract extension? He inherited a team that was never going to go anywhere and then tore it down as any GM would have had to. He's helped to turn the drafting and development side of the organization from an absolute joke to a very respectable facet. He removed the old players who were part of the problem and acquired assets that will be part of the solution. But he's made mistakes along the way as well, and nearly a very big one with Heatley. The embarrassment of Heatley refusing to waive his no trade clause doesn't sting as badly as that deal would have if it had actually gone through.

The biggest problems with this Oilers team have always been that there was no elite talent, and there weren't enough NHL players in the pipeline. Those are problems that Tambellini has taken steps to correct. It's a job that's going to take several years, so we shouldn't be surprised that the team is still losing; especially when injuries strike as they have for the past three years.

Trust in a GM should always been limited to a certain extent, but so far things seem to be going according to the rebuilding plan.

01/25/12 The Curious Case of the Third and Fourth Lines

2012-01-24T23:31:00.000-08:00

The Oilers should be proud of their effort in the last two games, but once again the boxscore was all zeros for the third and fourth lines on Tuesday. For some reason, the bottom two lines simply cannot score. What's the deal?

When Eric Belanger was a member of the Minnesota Wild he was a 13 goal man. He lit the lamp 13 times in each of his three seasons there, and scored another two after being traded to Washington in 2010. The veteran center hasn't had less than 13 goals in a season since he had 9 with the Thrashers back in 2006-07, but that was in just 24 games (a 30 goal pace!). It was a good bet that he would be exactly what the Oilers needed for their third line, but this season he's got just one goal and ten measly points in 45 games.

At 57.7% Belanger's faceoff ability has been exactly as advertised, and he has averaged 2:37 of penalty kill time per game, which has helped to steady the once-abysmal PK. Amazingly, he's averaging 1:42 of powerplay time per game as well, and yet he's still stuck on just the one marker that came on a lucky wrap around bounce against Carolina on December 7th.

After a 15 goal, 34 point rookie season, Magnus Paajarvi has seen his scoring grind to a halt as well. It's been 35 games since he's found the back of the net, going all the way back to April 6th of last season. His four assists in 33 games this year has him on pace for just 8 points if he finishes the year in Edmonton.

Considering how much promise the third and fourth lines had coming into the season, it's amazing that the players who have played regularly in those slots have combined for just 24 goals 55 points. If you remove Ryan Jones from that equation, the others have a combined total of just 12 goals and 34 points.

So what's happening here?

Some of it is bad luck. Belanger had 13 goals on 127 shots last year for a very reasonable 10.2% shooting percentage. This year he's got one goal on 74 shots. Magnus Paajarvi hasn't scored on 61 shots this year, while he's averaging almost two shots per game. He's not attacking the net enough, but you'd think he would get lucky eventually.

One way or another a few of these numbers will even out. The goal totals from the bottom two lines are not representative of their quality. Players can't keep shooting and shooting and failing to score forever, can they?

01/22/12 A Question of Depth

2012-01-22T18:31:00.000-08:00

"Every team goes through injuries," said Ladislav Smid back on January 18th. The problem with the Oilers is that they lack the ability to replace the players that they have lost, and they're still a number of years away from being able to. Until that changes, this team will continue to lose.

The players that are pictured above look like a formidable group, don't they? One day they may all play a part in the Oilers' future success, but as of now Taylor Hall is the only one in the NHL and the others really aren't close. From left to right, Jeremie Blain is plying his trade in the QMJHL this year, Pitlick is a rookie in the AHL, Martin Marincin is still in the WHL and Ryan Martindale is playing in the ECHL. Curtis Hamilton (not pictured) is also an AHL rookie this season. None of those players is ready to step in for an injured NHL regular.

From 2006 to 2008 the Oilers made just 16 selections in the NHL Entry Draft, and given the crapshoot-like nature of the event that's not a recipe for a lot of organizational depth. Jordan Eberle, Theo Peckham, Jeff Petry and Sam Gagner are NHL regulars from those draft years, with Linus Omark, Philippe Cornet and Teemu Hartikainen trailing behind. That's only part of a team and two or three players that are capable of filling in when injuries strike.

The Oilers are starting to see the fruits of the 2009 Draft in Paajarvi and Lander, but nobody else from that class is near the NHL at this point and it's arguable whether or not either of the first two belong with the Oilers just yet. And as encouraging as it was for the Oilers to make 20 selections in the last two years with many tracking well, the fact remains that most of them are still a long way from being able to impact this team.

At the moment this rebuilding thing appears to be a failure because the fans and the team have gone through so much painful sucking. But the fact is that it's still too early to judge. Building depth takes time, and not enough of it has passed. Laddy Smid is right: every team does go through injuries, but the ones the Oilers have suffered have been crippling. There's no team in the NHL that could absorb the loss of three of their best offensive players and their top two defensemen, but how teams can deal with it depends on the quality of the trailers they've got in the organization.

The Oilers are always going to suffer injuries (hopefully not as badly as the last few seasons), but one day they will have the ability to replace the players they've lost. That will be enough to keep them in the playoff hunt while their injured players convalesce, and by that time the Oilers' regulars will be even better than they are now.

Whether or not Renney or Tambellini are right for this rebuild is not a question that is being answered here, but there is one thing to keep in mind:

No matter who is in charge, this team doesn't have the depth to be competitive. Decide for yourself whose fault that is, but the only thing that's going to fix it is time.

01/18/12 Trading Khabibulin Part Two: Los Angeles

2012-01-20T18:39:00.000-08:00

Earlier today, Darren Dreger answered a question from an Oilers fan who wondered if Nikolai Khabibulin could be traded at the deadline and if there was any way the Oilers could acquire Jonathan Bernier from Los Angeles. Amazingly, Dreger didn't shoot it down.

Before proceeding, let's be clear: Darren Dreger did not suggest that the Oilers and Kings are talking about a trade involving Bernier or Khabibulin. What he did say was that a deal of Khabibulin for Bernier would make sense if it was part of a larger equation, which probably includes Ales Hemsky.

In this situation the Kings would land one of the bigger top six forward names out there for the second year in a row, as well as a Stanley Cup Champion in Khabibulin. The current Oilers netminder wouldn't be relied upon to be the starter in LA, but he is decent insurance for a playoff run. Hemsky is obviously the real prize here, as the Kings would add some more punch to their anemic offense.

The Oilers would be acquiring a 23 year old goalie that may be ready to grab a starting job full time. Bernier is having a difficult season this year with a 2.73 GAA and 0.895 Sv%, but over the course of his career his numbers are better at 2.60 GAA and a 0.908 Sv%. The sample size is small, however, with Bernier having appeared in just 41 NHL games. Bernier was the starter in Manchester of the AHL back in 2009-10, where he posted an impressive 0.936 save percentage and 2.03 goals against average. The young goalie is a restricted free agent after next season and currently carries a cap hit of $1.25 million, which is a $2.5 million savings over Khabibulin.

Jonathan Bernier is two years younger than Devan Dubnyk, but he does have slightly better numbers, and being young means that he fits into the long term rebuilding plan. That would allow the Oilers to let Olivier Roy and Tyler Bunz cut their teeth in lower leagues and get the seasoning that they will need going forward.

Do the Oilers win this deal, or could they get more for Hemsky?

01/19/12 Trading Khabibulin

2012-01-19T21:49:00.000-08:00

Another day, another loss. But of course, the one bright spot was Nikolai Khabibulin and his 0.974 save percentage on a night where he didn't get a lot of help. Is it time to sell high and move Khabibulin and his contract to a new home?

With a 0.921 Sv% on the year to go along with a 2.36 GAA and 11-14-4 record, Khabibulin has seen his stock rise dramatically. However, the case for trading him begins with the fact that the Bulin Wall won't be here when the Oilers become a good team (assuming that ever happens, of course), and that he is unlikely to be able to sustain his high level of play.

Those are Khabibulin's best numbers since 2001-02. The only time he's come close was with Chicago back in 2008-09 when he had a 0.919 Sv% and 2.33 GAA. Over the course of his career Khabibulin has a 0.908 Sv% and 2.71 GAA, which is about where his numbers have landed on average over his time in Edmonton. That's not enormously better than Devan Dubnyk's career numbers at 0.906 Sv% and 3.01 GAA. Dubnyk hasn't shown enough evidence that he is a starting goalie in the NHL, but his overall stats aren't that much of a downgrade from Khabibulin's.

At 39 years old, Khabibulin is not the future. The Oilers won't be good enough next season to need him for a Cup run, and extending him beyond his current contract is extremely risky and unlikely to be the right move. One way or another, Nikolai Khabibulin is nearing the end of his tenure in the Oilers' crease.

With that said, the Oilers are in a position to see what his value is on the trade market. There are a few teams out there that could use some goaltending help. The extra year on Khabibulin's contract means that he may have some appeal even to teams that are already out of the playoff picture this season, like Tampa Bay and Columbus.

The Bulin Wall may not fetch a prospect or pick that could turn the Oilers around, but it would open up $3.75 million in cap space. Right now his play makes that number look like a steal, but when his stats average out it won't be as flattering.

Khabibulin's value is unlikely to ever be higher than it is now, and eventually the Oilers will part ways with him for nothing. If he's going to be traded, now is the time.

01/17/12 Shoooooot!

2012-01-18T22:14:00.000-08:00

On Tuesday night the Edmonton Oilers were outshot for the 27th time this season in just 45 games. They've outshot their opponents 13 times and tied in shots the rest. Injuries and misfortune aside, this team simply does not shoot enough.

When outshooting the opposition the Oilers are a .500 team at 6-6-1, but when they are outshot their record is much less kind at 8-17-2. Edmonton is sitting in 29th in the NHL in total shots for and also in shots for per game. Why is that significant?

Aside from the obvious implications of the Oilers' record when outshooting their opponents, the top ten teams in shots per game are all sitting in playoff position right now.

Obviously, shots on goal are affected by a team's ability to spend time in the offensive zone, so it makes sense that the best teams would be closest to their opponents' net more often than to their own, and that that would be reflected by the number of shots they take. The Oilers do not have the personnel to dominate zone play just yet, and so they aren't getting enough shots on goal.

However, the Oilers have outshot some very competent teams this year, including Pittsburgh, Vancouver, Los Angeles, Boston, Ottawa, and Colorado; to name the more prominent ones. The Oilers are certainly banged up and they missed Taylor Hall in a big way on Tuesday, but going forward this team must be composed of players that are going to put pucks on net.

Interestingly, the Oilers' highest shooting players are some of their newest ones. Well, sorta.

Ryan Smyth is new again and he's leading the way in shots with 117 in 45 games. After that it's the H2E line. Hall, Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins are second through fourth in total shots on goal this year. Aside from Smyth they are the only Oilers who are averaging more than two shots per game with 3.3, 2.3 and 2.1 shots per game respectively.

In the last four years the winner of the Stanley Cup had no fewer than seven players averaging 2 shots per game or more, so the Oilers have some work to do.

01/16/12 Hall Heating Up

2012-01-16T16:51:00.000-08:00

Taylor Hall is like a freight train. He had a bit of a slow start to the season with 11 points in his first 17 games, but ever since the blowout in Chicago where he scored his second career hat trick he's been gathering momentum. Now that he's moving, he's really moving.

Before his injury, Hall had 7-11-18 in 22 games, and 60 shots on goal (2.7 per game). Since returning, he's put up 8-6-14 in 14 games and has 57 shots on goal (4.1 shots per game).

Including the 9-2 drubbing of the Hawks, Hall has scored 12 goals in his last 19 games played and collected 20 points.

Hall has only been held without a shot on goal three times all year. In fact, November 26th was the last time Hall didn't register a shot in a game, which was when he was felled by his shoulder injury and only played 7 shifts. When he's in for the entire game, he shoots. Under those circumstances he hasn't been held without a shot since November 8th, which is a stretch of more than two months and 22 games. He's leading the team in shots on goal as well, despite the fact that the next-closest Oiler (Ryan Smyth) has played eight more games than Hall has.

Early in the season in seemed that Tyler Seguin had ended the debate about which of the two players was better, as he was absolutely lighting up the league. But Hall is quickly closing the gap on the young man who went directly after him in the 2010 draft. Seguin has 17-21-38 in 40 games this season (0.43 goals per game and 0.95 points per game). Hall has improved to 15-16-31 in 36 games (0.42 goals per game and 0.86 points per game), and he's doing it all on one of the worst teams in the NHL, which has also been ravaged by injuries.

After a hot start, Seguin has got 6 goals and 17 points in his last 25 games, while Hall has been moving in the opposite direction. Both are great players and well deserving of their draft position, but determining which is best isn't as clear as it was earlier this year.

Without a doubt, Taylor Hall has been the Oilers' best player for quite some time, and definitely since Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle went down with injuries. He's taken control of this team and his passion is on display every night. Hall is coming into his own.

01/15/12 Defense Wanted. But Who?

2012-01-15T15:56:00.000-08:00

The buzz around the Oilogosphere today has largely been about the Oilers' defense, or lack thereof. There's talk of dealing away this year's first round pick in order to find a high quality defender, which is an idea that is rightfully gathering steam. But who would it be? Below I've compiled a list of teams that have defense to spare and would like a nice boost in their attack (which one of Yakupov, Grigorenko, Forsberg or Galchenyuk could provide as early as next year).

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers: The Rangers are tops in the East right now by virtue of their goaltending, having allowed just 86 goals all year (2.05/game). Marian Gaborik already has 23 goals, but he also leads the team in points with just 34 in 42 games. The Rangers do not have a player on a point-per-game pace and could use another strong attacker to put them over the top. Any potential deal with this team will have to wait until after the season is over because Sather won't want to mess up his team too much before the playoffs.

In return for their first round pick the Oilers could request Michael Del Zotto, who is finally living up to his draft pedigree (20th overall in 2008). This year he's got 5-18-23 in 42 games, and an impressive plus-24 rating. Another potential target could be Marc Staal, who, though injured, is in his fifth NHL season and has been one of that team's best for a long time. The presence of both of these players in New York may make one of them expendable. Neither is the "rake redux" that Lowetide talks about at OilersNation, but they would make for good Whitney insurance.

Florida Panthers: The Panthers need help with secondary scoring in a bad way, but if things continue on an upward path they won't have a shot at the top players in this year's draft. Three of Florida's last five drafts have seen them take a defenseman with their top pick, and they also added Brian Campbell and Ed Jovanovski in the off season. Huberdeau and another top prospect would make for a quality second line next season.

The Oilers would probably be looking at Erik Gudbranson in exchange for their pick, but Dmitri Kulikov could also be a good starting point. Gudbranson has the pedigree to be a top guy, but he's unproven in the NHL. Kulikov is in his third season and has tremendous offensive instincts, but that hasn't translated to big numbers at the NHL level just yet. That said, he's on pace for a career year with 4-17-21 in 42 games, and has almost reached his offensive output from all of last season (26 points in 72 games).

New Jersey Devils: With Patrick Elias in the twilight of his career and the potential to lose Zack Parise very real, the Devils would undoubtedly like to dip into the high end of this year's draft. The problem with a deal here is that New Jersey doesn't have much that is of equivalent value to the Oilers' pick, except for Adam Larsson. It seems highly unlikely that the Devils would be willing to part with the young Swede, so a trade with this team is a non-starter.

Toronto Maple Leafs: If the Leafs don't do any damage in the playoffs this year they may want to add more scoring. After Lupul and Kessel the dip in production from the forwards is steep. There are a lot of good support players on this team, but they could use another lethal threat to balance out two lines of attack. A potential number one center like Galchenyuk wouldn't hurt.

The return is simple: the Oilers would probably want Luke Schenn. Schenn is in his fourth NHL season but he's only played 274 games in the league (remember how it's taken Smid 300+ to become the player he is). He still has plenty of room to round into a complete player, and would easily be one of the Oilers' best right now.

Washington Capitals: The Caps are sixth in Eastern Conference scoring as of this writing, but the always enigmatic Alexander Semin could be in his last days in Washington. His contract expires after this season and for a team as close to the cap as Washington tends to be, it would be nice to replace him with an equivalent talent who is considerably cheaper.

In return for their top pick the Oilers might target John Carlson or maybe Karl Alzner. Carlson in on pace for career-highs in goals (10), assists (33), and points (43), and over his short NHL career of 146 games he's got a plus-32 rating. At just 22 years old he could anchor the blue line for years to come. Alzner is similar in that he's just 23 years of age, but he doesn't bring as much offense as Carlson. In fact, Alzner has just four goals in his 175 career games, but he's been a plus player in each of the last two years and a plus-22 in his career. At 6'3" and 213 pounds he's a fairly formidable presence on the backend.

Winnipeg Jets: Of all the teams in the East, the Jets may need a star forward the most. Blake Wheeler is their leading scorer with 32 points in 44 games, and as a team the Jets are 11th in goal scoring in the Eastern Conference.

There's little doubt that the Oilers would target Zach Bogosian or Tobias Enstrom in a trade with Winnipeg, as Dustin Byfuglien is unlikely to be moved. 21 year old Bogosian has played 241 NHL games and was on pace for a career high in points (37) before getting hurt on Tuesday. So far this season he's managed to bring his glaringly bad plus/minus back to reasonable levels. Enstrom has missed some time with injury this year, but he's a premiere offensive-defenseman; having collected 50 or more points in back-to-back years. Last season he managed the feat in just 72 games.

Buffalo Sabres: Another team that could use more balanced scoring, the Sabres don't boast much beyond Pominville and Vanek. Derek Roy is their third-leading scorer with 25 points in 42 games. Brad Boyes, who is having a miserable year, comes off the books after this season, and that could make room for the Entry Level Contract of a budding offensive star.

It may take more than just a high draft pick, but it would be nice to see the Oilers target Tyler Myers. He just signed an extension with Buffalo, but the Oilers may still be able to make a good offer. Also, when new and enthusiastic ownership comes in, they can sometimes tend to meddle more than they should, which might make a deal like this possible. Myers is 6'8" and 227 pounds and he's still only 21 years old. Six-foot-eight! He's also got 92 points in his 186 games, along with a plus-6 rating on some average teams.

Montreal Canadiens: This team could use an offensive star because they best they can muster is Tomas Plekanec and Erik Cole, who are first and second in points with 31 and 30 respectively in 44 games. P.K. Subban is the only player that might work in a deal, but he's unlikely to be moved. Beyond that, Montreal doesn't have much the Oilers will value as much as that first round pick.

Western Conference

St. Louis Blues: The Blues have scored by committee this year, with no player on a point-per-game pace but five who are on pace for 20 or more goals. Unfortunately, the Blues already traded a high profile defenseman in order to improve their offense and may not be inclined to do the same again. Kevin Shattenkirk would be a welcome addition, but he alone isn't necessarily worth this year's first round pick.

Chicago Blackhawks: One more high end offensive talent could put this team way over the top for years to come. The Oilers might ask for Niklas Hjalmarsson, but he alone may not get a deal done involving the Oilers' high first rounder. The emergence of Nick Leddy means the Hawks have a little wiggle room on the defense, so there's some potential for a trade if it's right. Edmonton would love to get Brent Seabrook away from Chicago, but he's probably not going to be moved.

Nashville Predators: This is perhaps the most interesting team of all. The Preds certainly lack an elite offensive talent, and right now they're being led in scoring by defenseman Shea Weber. That's a testament to the quality of Weber as a player but also an indictment of the offensive capabilities of the rest of the team.

Weber is a Restricted Free Agent after this season, and the contract negotiations between him and his team were not easy during the summer. If it turns out that he doesn't want to commit to Nashville in the long term, he could fetch one hell of a package. Part of such a deal could be the Oilers' pick, which may be as high as first overall. Obviously it will take more than that, and it's not a highly probable scenario in the first place, but it's worth at least asking about if the Predators are afraid that Weber won't sign long term and they'll lose him for nothing after next season.

Also interesting in Nashville is Ryan Ellis, who has posted 2-2-4 and a plus-2 in his first 8 NHL games this year. The former World Junior captain had 101 points in just 58 games for the Windsor Spitfires last year. He's a former teammate of Taylor Hall, and looks like he's ready for prime time. At 5'10" and 179 pounds he's a bit slight, but makes up for it with his exceptional offensive abilities.

Los Angeles Kings: This is the lowest scoring team in the league right now, and though they're strong at center they could use some more punch on the wings. One of the top guys in this year's draft would instantly make the Kings a solid contender for years.

The only player who would be worth a very high draft pick and who also may be available is Jack Johnson. Johnson has scored 7-13-20 in 45 games this year and is a minus-7. He has a good range of tools but has yet to really put it all together as yet. He's played 327 NHL games, so it's starting to look like he may just be what he is and no more than that. Johnson has never had a year with positive plus/minus, and he's an ugly minus-85 over his career. Still, he brings physicality and some offense from the backend, and he carries a very affordable $4.357 million cap hit. Certainly couldn't hurt the Oilers' blue line.

Phoenix Coyotes: Another team without much scoring punch, and many of their best offensive threats are almost ready to ride off into the sunset. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is probably an untouchable player in Phoenix, but he may be less so than Keith Yandle. Ekman-Larsson has got 7-12-19 in 45 games this season after posting 11 points in 48 games last year. His season-over-season improvement is enough to think that he could be a superb talent, especially because his team isn't that gifted offensively. Because of that the Coyotes will probably hang onto him, but Yandle is their key defender and they lack an elite forward for the future, so there's an outside chance of a deal here.

Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks will eventually need to replace Teemu Selanne, Saku Koivu and Jason Blake, but they'll probably already have a pick in the top five to draft an impact forward. Cam Fowler has 58 points in 119 NHL games but he's also a minus-40 in that time. He's probably not going anywhere. Luca Sbisa is interesting, but it's too early in his career to assign him too much value.

***

As far as I can see, those are the teams for whom it would make sense to make a sizable deal with the Oilers. There will probably be some deal that comes out of left field now that I've written this, but those seem to be the players that the Oilers could target.

01/13/12 Right Now, The Oilers Are The NHL's Worst Team

2012-01-13T22:01:00.000-08:00

Over the weekend there should be a shocking upswing in the sales of large, head-sized paper bags in Edmonton, as the Oilers have been the worst team in the NHL over the last twenty games. That's right! Nobody - not even Columbus - has had a worse record over their last 20 than the Oilers.

Columbus is 6-12-2

Anaheim is 8-9-3

The Islanders have gone 9-9-2

Carolina? They've gone 7-10-3

Tampa Bay went 6-12-2 over their last 20

Montreal is 6-11-3

Winnipeg has been pretty good at 11-8-1

Buffalo has slid some with a 6-10-4 record over the last 20

and Phoenix has had a record of 7-9-4

And our Edmonton Oilers? Well, they've had a record of 4-14-2 in their last twenty games. They've scored 3 or more goals ten times in that span, and more than 3 just four times. The Oilers have scored 48 goals in those twenty games, or an average of just 2.4 per game, while allowing 67 goals (3.35 per game). Including Friday night's fiasco they've been shutout twice.

The teams listed above are currently the bottom ten in the league. If things continue like this the Oilers shouldn't have any problem finishing 30th and possibly becoming just the second team in history to draft first overall in three consecutive years.

The good news is that the only other team to do that was the Quebec Nordiques from 1989-1991. The bad news is that none of those three first overall picks were members of the eventual powerhouse Colorado Avalanche. As a matter of fact, none of them ever won Cups with any team.

Tonight, the Oilers are just one point out of 29th, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are only 7 points behind. When some injured players come back for the Oilers things might get better, but by then it might already be too late.

01/12/12 Hollywood Hemsky?

2012-01-12T18:45:00.000-08:00

So Dean Lombardi apologized for his Bernie Madoff comments during Mulletgate and that's got David Staples at the Cult of Hockey wondering if it's no coincidence that this about-face is happening just 46 days before the trade deadline. It's especially fishy as the Oilers happen to have a certain offensive winger who may or may not be available in a trade, and the Kings happen to be the lowest scoring team in the league.

Yes, you read that right. Even after acquiring Mike Richards in the off season the Kings are last in the NHL in total goal output with 90 in 43 games. A 2.09 Goals per Game average is not going to win you many hockey games, and that's precisely why the Kings are sitting in eighth place in the West instead of being comfortably inside the playoffs as many predicted before the season. Right wingers Dustin Brown and Justin Williams are both having off years and have combined for just 17 goals so far.

Ales Hemsky won't bring a lot of goal scoring to any team's lineup, but when he's on his game he can be a strong catalyst to help other players find the back of the net. Hemsky may not be having a great year, but things have reached the point in LA where something must be done to spark that offense, and that could make number 83 an attractive option.

Just how attractive remains to be seen. Obviously Dean Lombardi is keenly aware of how badly he got burned in the Dustin Penner trade last season, and he won't be in any hurry to repeat that mistake. On the other hand, this was supposed to be the year that the Kings really took a step forward. Certainly home ice advantage was in the plan, and nothing less than winning one round in the playoffs will do in order to call 2011-12 a success in LA. If the Kings merely sneak into the playoffs they'll be in tough against teams like Vancouver, Chicago and Detroit, so Lombardi might want to make a move soon so that his team can make up as much ground in the standings as possible.

We know for certain that the Kings have interest in Hemsky. The winger was definitely in the conversation at last year's trade deadline, but a suitable deal was never on the table for either side. The Oilers wanted Brayden Schenn and Lombardi wisely declined to make that deal, opting instead to use his prized prospect to bring in the aforementioned Richards. Now that Hemsky is a pending UFA and not lighting it up offensively, the asking price will be greatly reduced. So much so that a deal could very well be struck.

The Oilers already plucked one defense prospect out of LA's system with the acquisition of Colten Teubert, and Hemsky could allow them to add another. The Kings' prospect depth is still heavy on defensemen, which may make Viatcheslav Voynov available.

Voynov, the 32nd overall pick in the Eberle draft (2008), has collected 4-6-10 and a plus-2 rating in 24 games for the Kings this year. Already in his third full season for the Manchester Monarchs of the AHL last year, Voynov posted 15-36-51 and a plus-21, as well as 2-3-5 in 7 playoff games. At 5'11" and 193 pounds, he doesn't have ideal size for a defender, but the Oilers sorely need offense from the backend. With Peckham, Teubert, Smid, Plante, Musil and Klefbom in the system, there's enough size and strength to afford the Oilers a quality offensive D-man.

The Oilers may want more than just a prospect for Hemsky, but Voynov would be a good starting point to a deal. He has tools that the Oilers need and he's ready for the big show right now. If Edmonton were to get him their blue line might not look half bad in the not-so-distant future.

01/10/12 Will This Drafting Thing Really Work?

2012-01-10T21:37:00.000-08:00

Suppose for a moment that the Oilers get another pick in the top five this year. Not a big stretch, I know. How do teams fare when they pick first overall and then in the top five routinely? Let's find out.

First we have to set some parameters, but it's not as boring as it sounds. The story hasn't finished yet for teams that picked in the top five in 2009 or later, so I've looked at 30 years of drafts before that (1979-2008). In order to be included, a team must have had three picks in the top five within 5 years, and at least one of those picks must have been first overall.

There are ten teams that fit those criteria, starting with the Pittsburgh Penguins from 1984-1988. The results range from Stanley Cup Championships to absolutely abhorrent. Of those teams, four won Cups as a direct result of their high picks, four were terrible or mostly terrible and two became elite teams that have yet to win anything. The teams and their picks are as follows:

Pittsburgh: 1984-88; Mario Lemieux, Craig Simpson, Zarley Zalapski, Chris Joseph
Quebec: 1988-92; Curtis Leschyshyn, Daniel Dore, Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros, Todd Warriner
Ottawa: 1994-96; Radek Bonk, Bryan Berard, Chris Phillips
Tampa Bay: 1992, 93, 95; Roman Hamrlik, Chris Gratton, Daymond Langkow
Atlanta: 1999-02; Patrik Stefan, Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, Kari Lehtonen
New York Islanders: 1996, 97, 99, 2000; J.P. Dumont, Roberto Luongo, Eric Brewer, Tim Connolly, Rick DiPietro, Raffi Torres
Columbus: 2000, 02, 03; Rusty Klesla, Rick Nash, Nikolai Zherdev
Pittsburgh (again): 2002-06; Ryan Whitney, M.A. Fleury, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal
Washington: 2004, 06, 07; Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Karl Alzner
Chicacgo: 2004, 06, 07; Cam Barker, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane

The Islanders also selected Wade Redden second overall in 1995, giving them seven picks in the top five in just five years. Unfortunately for them, Mad Mike Milbury was in charge. Just look at the players that team would have had if they hadn't all been traded away. Well, except DiPietro of course, the worst selection of the bunch. It's safe to say that this would have at least been a decent team otherwise, so we'll just write them off.

Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Columbus were all utter failures based on these picks. There are some good players in there but those three teams only made the playoffs once each with these players as their core. Astute management is still a must, but it doesn't help that one of Atlanta's first overall picks was a bust. So too was fourth overall pick Nikolai Zherdev for Columbus, who was one of just three in the top five for that team. He had 27 and 26 goal seasons for the Jackets, but only played four seasons there and has been out of the NHL two of the last three years.

Aside from those, all of the teams listed ended up at least being competitive, but not always solely because of their top five selections. However, most of these players either ended up forming the core of their teams, or were traded for players that did.

Still, there are no guarantees when it comes to the NHL draft. If the Oilers manage to get out of lottery position next year that will give them only three picks in the top five during the rebuild. Jordan Eberle helps, and so may some of the other later picks, but Edmonton cannot afford to whiff on this coming draft. The fortunes of Atlanta, Columbus and Tampa Bay underscore that notion.

The Atlanta Thrashers picked first overall twice in three years and never went anywhere, so the Oilers and their fans must beware. The good news is that Taylor Hall will be fine and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins already has more points than Patrik Stefan had in any one season, save for 2003-04. When the Nuge returns he should surpass Stefan's single-season career high of just 40 points.

Drafting an impact player this June could be the difference between a long-competitive Oilers team and an ever-floundering one. Keep in mind also that every single one of the teams listed above that also won a Stanley Cup traded at least one of the players they selected in the top five. Other than Washington, all of the teams traded at least one of their players from the top five, so good management can also be the difference between success and endless failure.

The scouting side looks like it's well in hand, but there won't be a verdict on the management team for a few more years.

01/08/12 Detroit and Hemsky

2012-01-08T17:35:00.000-08:00

This article is one of many that has speculated about a trade involving Ales Hemsky and the Detroit Red Wings. Hemsky has often been linked to the Red Wings this season, but is there a deal that makes sense? Probably not.

The last article among those links points out that Detroit would be unwilling to part with their top prospect Brendan Smith in exchange for Hemsky. Smith is a former university standout who was selected 27th overall back in the Gagner draft (2007) and is regarded as a high end offensive-defenseman. He posted 12-20-32 in his first full AHL season last year, and had improved to 5-12-17 in 28 games this year. He earned a three game callup to the Red Wings where he notched two assists.

The Oilers will be looking to improve the backend if they move Hemsky out of town, but if Detroit keeps Smith off the table it will be hard to find a deal. Smith is the only defenseman in the Red Wings' top ten prospects, according to the 2011 THN Future Watch, and there isn't really one on the roster that fits except maybe Jakub Kindl. Kindl earned his first full NHL season this year after being drafted in 2005 and has posted 8 points in 32 games with a plus-8 rating. He's solid enough, but doesn't necessarily fill the Oilers' needs.

The Wings have over $5 million in cap space heading into the deadline, so they have plenty of wiggle room to add a scoring threat and one more top-six forward is exactly what they need.

If the Red Wings were willing to part with Gustav Nyquist (9-21-30 in 30 AHL games with Grand Rapids) or Tomas Tatar (10-19-29 in 34 AHL games) there might be the beginnings of a deal, but it would not really give the Oilers what they need. Such deals are only likely to happen if the Oilers had another bigger deal in mind that would occur later. That's not such a bad idea, since it would give the Oilers plenty of assets to acquire a defenseman who is even better than Brendan Smith.

But the sheer amount of moving parts make this scenario unlikely. Also, there will undoubtedly be other teams who are willing to give up more for Hemsky than the Red Wings will. If Detroit stands pat at the deadline they still have a good enough team to run with, which is not the case with other teams who would love to add a top-six forward.

***

Check out Oil Acumen on The Copper and Blue's Mid Season Roundtable.

01/07/12 The Halfway Point

2012-01-07T16:59:00.000-08:00

We've arrived at the half way point of the season and it's already over once again. Here is a look at why that is the case, and also the points pace of some of the Oilers' notable players.

Last year the Oilers were 13-21-7 after 41 games on their way to another 30th place finish. This year they are sitting at 16-22-3, which is improvement, right? Right?!

The Oilers are 28th in the league in Shots For with 1084 so far. The league leaders are the Canucks, who have taken 260 more shots than Edmonton with just one more game played. The Oilers are a lowly 29th in Shots For Per Game with 26.4. Only Anaheim is worse. If you want your players to take a minimum of two shots per game, the only Oilers players with acceptable totals so far are Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Smyth and Hall. Only Smyth hasn't been hit by the injury bug, and hopefully Eberle's damage isn't too severe.

Things are a little better defensively, with the Oil sitting in 25th in Shots Against and 20th in Shots Against Per Game. They need more from Devan Dubnyk, and his 3.15 GAA and .903 Sv% combined with a 5-10 record. If, for argument's sake, we assume Khabibulin's numbers would be the same if he had played every game this year, he would have allowed about nine fewer goals than Dubnyk, which has to count for a few wins and points in the standings. As it is, Khabibulin has appeared in 26 games and allowed 59 goals, while Dubnyk has appeared in 17 and allowed 50.

The powerplay is still a point of strength, sitting 2nd in the league at 21.3%. Last year the powerplay finished with just 14.5% efficiency, so fans should count their blessings on that score.

The penalty kill is still respectable at 83.8% and ninth place, which is almost 7% improvement over last year's 29th-ranked PK at 77%.

It's the five-on-five Goals For/Against Ratio that has started to slip. The Oilers are 20th in that regard at 0.90. For some context, the Boston Bruins are sitting at 2.09 currently and are first in the league 5X5.

Pace:

Jordan Eberle (assuming that he doesn't miss any time, which seems unlikely) is on pace for 34 goals and 86 points.

Taylor Hall: 31 goals and 65 points

Ryan Smyth: 30 goals and 64 points

Nugent-Hopkins (assuming that he misses ten games): 25 goals and 66 points

Horcoff: 16 goals and 44 points

Jones: 24 goals and 40 points

Gagner: 11 goals and 44 points, although he could finish higher because he's collected 18 of his 20 points in his last 21 games played

Gilbert (assuming that he returns next game): 6 goals and 31 points

Hemsky: 7 goals and 35 points

Potter: 8 goals and 35 points

Belanger: 2 goals and 20 points

The Oilers have four players who can still hit 60 or more points, and that's not including Gagner who has been on fire of late and has really seized the opportunity that's been presented to him. Last year the Oilers finished with one 20 goal man (Hall) and this year they have five players on pace for 20 and three on pace for 30. The way Taylor Hall has played recently it won't be out of the question to see him score more than the 31 goals he's on pace for. There's a clear need for an offensive-defenseman, but Gilbert and Potter are having respectable years offensively. Notably, Nugent-Hopkins is still on pace for 60+ points even with a substantial injury factored in, which means that he should still be headlining the Calder conversation if he can resume his previous pace. Hopefully Eberle's stellar season won't be derailed.

The season may be over, but at least we have some stars-in-the-making to watch down the stretch (injuries notwithstanding). Last year no Oilers player scored more than 43 meager points, so count your blessings even if the team does finish in the lottery yet again.

01/06/12 Questioning The Coach

2012-01-06T21:14:00.000-08:00

Coaching an NHL team is a difficult job, and I can never claim to have it on my resume. Well, it's on my resume, but it's a lie. Having said that, I'm not alone in having a few questions about the decisions that Tom Renney has been making behind the Oilers bench.

There was an interesting article on The Copper and Blue after the Oilers' loss to the Sabres on January third. It's true that it's difficult to get the matchup that you want while on the road and getting players into the right circumstances can be tricky. Nevertheless, Renney's continuous deployment of his fourth line in the Buffalo game lead directly to the Oilers loss. It was as though he believed that the arrival of Josh Green on that line was somehow going to make it better, in spite of the evidence that he was witnessing in the game. Why Green (who finished the night a minus-4) wasn't stapled to the bench after the third goal is beyond comprehension.

Aside from that, there's the matter of ice time. Early in the year Renney clearly felt the need to shelter his young players with mostly offensive zone starts, and it seemed to be working because the team was winning. In fact, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle, and Hall still have the highest percentage of offensive zone starts among the regular forwards. There's nothing wrong with giving the kids the best opportunity to succeed, but the trouble is that the whole game isn't played under favorable circumstances; especially for a bad/young team.

Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall are obviously two of the Oilers' absolute best players, and they should receive ice time accordingly when it's deserved. Eberle is currently sitting in 6th among Oilers forwards in even strength ice time per game, even though he is clearly the most potent offensive threat. Taylor Hall is fourth. Predictably, Horcoff, Hemsky and Smyth are averaging more. But in what way is that coaching to win? Eberle and Hall have got to be handed the reigns at some point and be given more time to do their thing on the attack.

It's understandable to shelter Nugent-Hopkins because he is a raw rookie, and when he was playing with Hall and Eberle that meant the latter two were sheltered by default. Now that the rookie phenom is out for a month, it will be interesting to see how Renney distributes the ice time. The two games since RNH went out have not been encouraging. In those, Smyth played 18:33 and 23:31. Hemsky played 18:59 and 18:05.

Eberle played just 15:04 in Buffalo and 17:28 in St. Louis, while Hall was on the ice for 21:37 and 17:15.

I would be better able to understand giving ice time to the veterans over the young players if the team was winning, but it isn't. One way or another, something has got to change. Yes, the young players are still putting up points, but imagine what they could do with more time 5x5. Even if they get overwhelmed, is it going to be any worse than losing 14 of the last 20? At least if the win/loss ratio was exactly the same, we'd be more entertained.

01/04/12 Hemsky to Florida?

2012-01-04T17:36:00.000-08:00

Ales Hemsky was mentioned in The Hockey News' Rumor Roundup on Monday, as Bucky Gleason of the Buffalo News thinks that Hemsky would be a good fit in Florida. If the time has come to trade the skilled winger, Florida very well could be the place. But what would be the return?

The Panthers have been getting a lot out of their top forwards this season, with their first line already combining for 105 points. Beyond Fleischmann, Versteeg and Weiss, however, the offensive well is bone dry. Their fourth-highest scoring forward is Tomas Kopecky with 15 points in 38 games. Adding John Madden may help a little, but the 38 year old had just 25 points in 76 games last year for the Wild. The Panthers need a scoring forward to help them end their playoff drought, and Ales Hemsky could be their man.

A Hemsky trade would give the Oilers the chance to bolster the blue line, and the Panthers may have just the player do help do that. Colby Robak is a 6-foot-3, 207 pound defender who went 46th overall to Florida in the Eberle Draft (2008).

Robak in an effective puck mover and a solid two-way defenseman who is honing his game in the American Hockey League. As an AHL rookie Robak posted 7-17-24, minus-12 in 76 games. This year he's improved to 5-14-19, plus-12 in just 33 games and was just named to the Western Conference All-Star Team.

The AHL states that "of the 562 players to take part in the AHL All-Star Classic since 1995, more than 93 percent have competed in the National Hockey League." There's a difference between competing in the NHL and being a difference-maker, but it's certainly a good sign for a 21 year old player like Robak.

His career stats can be found here. Notably, he put up a team-best plus-56 rating and 66 points in his last year with Brandon of the WHL.

Robak may not be the answer for the Oilers by himself, but he has the look of a solid defense prospect and he's not far from the NHL. Any deal with the Panthers should be centered around this player because Hemsky does not have the value to fetch a top prospect like Gudbranson or Huberdeau.

It's looking more and more like Hemsky will be traded somewhere, so let the idle speculation begin!

01/03/12 Trading The 2012 First Round Pick

2012-01-03T22:34:00.000-08:00

That loss to Russia put the Oilers' loss earlier in the evening in perspective. It was a valiant effort by the Oilers on Tuesday despite fatigue and a depleted lineup, but this appears to be a team destined for another finish near the bottom. But could Edmonton trade the resulting high draft pick? And just as important: should they?

The young man pictured above on his draft day is Eric Lindros, who was selected first overall by the Quebec Nordiques in 1991. After refusing to play in Quebec he was traded to Philadelphia for a monster package that was a big reason that Colorado won two Stanley Cups. Lindros, meanwhile, never won one.

In exchange for Lindros the Nordiques received:

Peter Forsberg, Ron Hextall, Chris Simon, Mike Ricci, Kerry Huffman, Steve Duchesne, two first round picks (one of which became Jocelyn Thibault who was part of the package for Patrick Roy) and $15,000,000 cash.

Trades of that magnitude are probably a thing of the past; not least of all because it would be too difficult to balance out the cap hits. On the other hand, if a team were to trade Russian sniper Nail Yakupov, how much could they get for him?

Suppose for a moment that the Oilers drop all the way to 30th for a third straight year, or they finish in the bottom five and win the draft lottery. A lot would have to go right (or wrong, depending how you look at it), but the Oilers could find themselves in a position to draft a winger who is seen as a future superstar. Before going to the World Juniors, Yakupov had amassed 21-32-53 in just 26 games with Sania of the OHL, and he's also a plus-21.

But if one thing has been made clear over the course of this season, it's that the Oilers aren't one more sniper away from contending for a playoff spot. If the Oilers had the chance to get their hands on Yakupov, they may be better off trading him for a package of players and prospects that could help them in more ways than Yakupov could.

In fact, an argument could be made for trading any of the top rated forwards if they are the best available when Tambellini steps up to the podium in June. The Oilers need an array of help and they have good enough forwards to make this kind of move.

Every NHL team would love to have one of the forwards that will go high in this year's draft - including the Oilers - but if Edmonton can turn that forward into an actual NHL-calibre defense, then it's at least worth looking at. If by chance they have the first pick overall, the bounty could be all they need to round out this team.

Despite all that, it sure would be hard to pass on Yakupov after that performance against Canada in the WJC (and those numbers in Junior). All the Oilers' losing could eventually become a win-win. Maybe.

12/30/11 On Pace for Last Place?

2011-12-30T02:29:00.000-08:00

So Christmas time is over and done with and all those nice residual feelings have subsided, which means that it's time to cast a disparaging eye on our Edmonton Oilers. Thursday night's loss to Minnesota was the Oilers' 17th in their last 25 games, and they appear to be back on course for another high pick in June.

Losing 17 of 25 games is just as serious and alarming as it sounds. Only one of those losses came in the shootout, which means that the Oilers have managed to pull a paltry seventeen of a possible fifty points.

Lack of personnel has certainly played its part. The future of the defense is playing in Edmonton, but in the World Junior Championship; not for the Oilers. With Whitney, Barker and Sutton hobbled, out and suspended the defense has begun to slip. The Oilers have allowed 18 of their 23 total powerplay goals-against in the last 25 games, and they've been allowing 3.24 goals against per game over that span as well.

I know what you're thinking. 25 games is more than half the season, so it makes sense that they would have allowed most of their powerplay goals over a long stretch of games. What this really means is that the Oilers have now been playing losing hockey more than twice as long as they were playing in a fashion that results in consistent... what's that word? Oh yes: "wins." The Oilers' PK percentage started out at 89.1%, but over the last 25 games it's been 80.6%, which would be good for 22nd in the league.

Amazingly, even that is an improvement over last year, when the Oilers finished 29th on the PK at just 77%. But can the Oilers still finish 30th? Or did they - as many of us thought - do enough early in the season to ensure that they could give the key to the basement suite back to Gary Bettman?

Last year the Oilers were 12-17-7 with 31 points after 36 games. The year before that they were 15-17-4 with 34 points. In the three seasons prior to those, the Islanders, Lightning and Flyers had 26, 33 and 20 points respectively after playing 36 games and each ended up in last place. Edmonton's current total of 33 points puts them right in the middle of that pack. So yes, the possibility still exists that the Oilers could come in 30th.

The 2007-08 Tampa Bay Lightning boasted Vincent Lecavalier, who had a remarkable 40 goal, 92 point season, and Marty St. Louis who put up 83 points in 82 games. Vinny Prospal provided some nice secondary scoring, with 29 goals and 57 points in 62 games and Brad Richards was there for 62 games and 51 points. Simon Gagne scored 41 goals for Philly the year they came in last, and Mike Knuble had 54 points in 64 games.

Those totals provide a note of caution to the assertion that pure offensive improvement (like the Oilers have shown) will keep a team away from the bottom. Of the nine total goalies used by Philadelphia and Tampa in those years, Martin Biron had the best save percentage at 0.908 and he was the only one above 0.900.

This is good news for the Oilers. While Khabibulin's stats are relenting a little at a time, he's still a major reason why this team isn't completely topsy-turvy. Edmonton will have to hope that Khabibulin can maintain a respectable level of play throughout the season, and if he does there's a chance that the Oilers stay out of the cellar.

At least part of the question, though, is whether or not it's worth it to not finish 30th. The mentality around these parts has lately been that a pure nose dive will result in the best possible player at the draft, and therefore that's the way to go. That's probably true in a lot of cases, but there are two caveats:

First, there's that pesky draft lottery thing. The team to finish 30th in the league only has a 48.2% chance of retaining the first overall pick. That's exactly what has happened over the last four seasons, but eventually that 30th place team is going to get bumped back to second overall. That's still a good pick, but it's not the best pick.

Second, there's the morale of the fans to think about. At this point we're all overjoyed to have Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but it's time to see some of the fruits of having those two - however small they may be. The improvement of the powerplay has been welcome, but a jump of at least a few spots in the overall standings would keep the belief alive that the team is headed in the proper direction.

At the end of the day, it's going to be up to the players to not fold their tents and to play for their pride. Sure, the blueline is depleted and it was never good enough to begin with, and yeah there're still plenty of problems with this team, but there's got to be enough here to not finish last. If there won't be playoffs in Edmonton for a sixth straight season, hopefully the Oilers can at least give us that much.

12/23/11 Christmas Comes Early

2011-12-23T13:33:00.000-08:00

The Edmonton Oilers gave the fans their Christmas gift early by decisively putting the screws to the Minnesota Wild on Thursday. There's plenty to dislike about a season that has seen the Oil go 15-16-3, but here are a few other little presents that Oilers fans have enjoyed.

1) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins! The one known as the Nuge (or NUUUUUGE) is leading all rookies in points by a mile. His 13-21-34 is ahead of the next-closest (Adam Henrique) by 9 total points, and he's got 2 more goals and 4 more assists than any other rookie. If he can somehow keep this up he'll be the highest scoring Oilers rookie ever in the NHL. Happily, Nugent-Hopkins is also a plus-1 on the season, which is a testament to his complete game.

2) Ryan Smyth's Return! If Ryan Smyth was on pace for forty points and had something like 7-10-17 so far the fans would probably be happy with that production from a 35 year old. Hell, just having Smytty back is morale boost enough. But instead of that, Smyth has put up 13-15-28 and a plus-3 rating in just 34 games. He's on pace for 31 goals and 68 points as of this writing.

3) Jordan Eberle! Eberle's 15 goals puts him on pace for 36 on the year and if he keeps this up he'll finish with 87 points. If that actually transpires it would be the highest point total by any Oiler since Doug Weight posted 90 way back in 2000-01. Point totals aside, Eberle has been an absolute treat to watch since joining the Oilers and especially this year.

4) Tom Gilbert and Ladislav Smid! After being the whipping boys of many Oilers fans for a number of seasons, these two defensemen have finally silenced all of the critics and come into their own. Gilbert and Smid are the Oilers' one high quality defense pairing that could potentially be patrolling the blue line for years to come, and if Whitney ever finds his game again it means the Oil are that much closer to being complete on the backend.

5) Taylor Hall! Hall is quietly on pace for 26 goals and 63 points, which would be the highest point total of any Oiler since Dustin Penner in 2009-10. Eberle and Nugent-Hopkins (as well as a shoulder injury) have stolen some of the luster from Hall's sophomore season, but so far he's been immune to the slump and has steadily improved his play. Hall got better as last season went on, so it's not out of the question to expect big things from him in the second half.

6) Ryan Jones! Jones signed a new two-year deal in the off season that had some fans wondering if he had been overpaid for one 18 goal year. Jones has proven that he is a solid two-way player and he's already got 11 goals on the season. He's on a staggering 27 goal pace right now, and he's sixth in PK ice time per game at 2:44. Even if Jones repeats as an 18 goal man he's become an indispensable part of the team.

and finally...

7) Nikolai Khabibulin! Khabibulin posted a 10-32-6 record last season with a fugly 3.40 GAA and 0.890 save percentage. This year he's done a complete 180 and has been one of the team's MVPs at the Christmas break. His 2.00 GAA and 0.932 save percentage are perhaps unsustainable over a full year (they would be the best numbers of his career), but his play is vastly improved. This is the best Khabibulin has played since his last season in Chicago when he posted a 0.919 save percentage and 2.33 GAA, and he's been exactly the goaltender the Oilers thought they were signing.

Like I said, there are plenty of negatives as well, but at Christmas time you've got to accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative. Just wait until next year...

12/21/11 Tracking Progress

2011-12-21T18:22:00.000-08:00

By eye everyone can tell how much better a lot of Oilers players have been this year, but here's a brief look at how much better (or worse) some of the notables have been statistically over last year.

Jordan Eberle
Last Year: 22 points after he'd played 33 games; 9-13-22, minus-1
This Year: 13-21-34, minus-1

Taylor Hall
Last Year: 14 points after he'd played 25 games; 8-6-14; minus-2
This Year: 9-13-22; plus-1

Ryan Smyth
Last Year: 20 points after he'd played 33 games; 11-9-20; plus-3
This Year: 12-15-27; plus-2

Shawn Horcoff
Last Year: 18 points after he'd played 33 games; 7-11-18; plus-2
This Year: 7-13-20; minus-6

Ryan Jones
Last Year: 9 points after he'd played 33 games; 7-2-9; minus-5
This Year: 11-6-17; plus-4

Sam Gagner
Last Year: 18 points after he played 26 games; 8-10-18; plus-2
This Year: 3-10-12; minus-4

Ales Hemsky
Last Year: 19 points after he'd played 22 games last year; 7-12-19; plus-4
This Year: 3-8-11; minus-3

Tom Gilbert
Last Year: 11 points after he'd played 33 games; 5-6-11; minus-7
This Year: 3-10-13; minus-2

Ryan Whitney
Last Year: 14 points after he'd played 16 games; 0-14-14; Even
This Year: 0-2-2; minus-6

The most interesting difference here is obviously the point production from the kids. Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle have combined for a 20 point improvement after the same number of games each last season. Nugent-Hopkins has helped them both out with his 21 helpers. Ryan Jones is also miles ahead of his production from last year, and his plus/minus has seen a 9-point swing to the positive side. If he reaches 20 goals and 40 points he'll be worth every penny of his $1.5 million cap hit.

Shawn Horcoff is what he is. Despite this current slump, if he stays healthy he might get close to 20 goals and right now he's on pace for 50 points. Should he manage to hit that mark it would be a solid season from the captain.

The Oilers need a lot more from Hemsky, Gagner and Whitney, but they are all players that should be able to turn it around at some point. It will be interesting to see how the season plays out.

12/20/11 Much Ado About Nothing: Struggling Oilers

2011-12-20T21:56:00.000-08:00

Even if the Oilers hadn't teased us all with their 9-3-2 start to the season, the fans were probably always going to be ornery by this point in the season. It's hard to watch a team lose for six long years, and we all knew this was coming.

After the NHL Entry Draft it's really easy to forget how vile the season was - especially when your team comes away with consecutive first-overall picks. But this year we the fans expected more, even though we probably shouldn't have.

That doesn't mean that this thing isn't going to work.

Remember Matt Greene? Maybe you remember him taking three bonehead penalties in Game Four of the Quarterfinal Series against Detroit way back in 2006. It's possible you even screamed at your TV screen when they announced that he was going back to the sin bin for a third time against the best powerplay team in the league that year. Greene spent a total of 151 games in Edmonton and was a minus-31 over that span (including a dreadful 2006-07 when he was minus-22) before being traded to LA.

And since the trade, Greene has been a plus player every single year including this one. He's been a very important part of that Kings team and he was named an Alternate Captain.

Speaking of defensemen, Oilers fans suffered through five up-and-down years of Ladislav Smid's play before he finally got things figured out this year. Tom Gilbert played way over his head and had mixed results before finally settling in this season as well. Excluding the super elite, it usually takes NHL defensemen a while to round into form.

Corey Potter has played a grand total of 28 NHL games. Theo Peckham has appeared in 131. Jeff Petry is a veteran of 61 games, and Colten Teubert played his first ten in the big show this year. Games played by Gilbert and Smid before this year? 337 and 331 respectively.

The point here is that some very good NHL defensemen came out of those long, often hard games to watch. It took a lot of seasoning for these players to be any good. The same thing will be true of one, two or perhaps all of Petry, Teubert, Peckham and Potter, but it's going to take some time and a lot of patience.

And this principle doesn't just apply to defensemen. It's going to take NHL action for Devan Dubnyk and some of the forwards to come into their own (or not). And let's face it: the Oilers' recent struggles offensively have been a result of the inability of Smyth, Horcoff and Hemsky to provide secondary scoring, not ineffectiveness from the kids. Those veterans will come out of their slumber eventually because they are too good and too experienced not to.

The progress that this Oilers team makes this season may be hard to see on the scoreboard at times, and the standings certainly have not been easy on the eyes of late, but the value of playing time for this group cannot always be measured by those means. Just like before, these hard times will pay dividends when the Oilers really need it, and that was never going to be this year.

12/18/11 What The Oilers Are Missing

2011-12-18T18:46:00.000-08:00

The Edmonton Oilers have come crashing back down to Earth faster and harder than Mir. Their 31 points puts them in 24th place, just one point out of 26th and a mere 9 points away from another stay in the NHL's basement. The question is: why?

Coming into this season we knew that management hadn't done enough to completely right the ship. Here is a look at all the problem areas for this team (those areas where the Oilers are below average):

Shots For: Edmonton is currently sitting 29th in the NHL with an average of 26.1 Shots For per game. San Jose is in first in this category with an average of 34.2 per game, and the league average is 30.1 per game. Ten of the top 15 teams in Shots Per Game are currently in playoff position. This Oilers team should have the ability to get shots to the net, but the players are either too young to get there consistently or seemingly too disinterested. Here are their top ten players in Shots per Game (S/G):

Hall: 2.8 Shots per Game
Smyth: 2.7 S/G
Eberle: 2.3 S/G
Nugent-Hopkins: 2.2 S/G
Gagner: 2 S/G
Hemsky: 1.9 S/G
Horcoff: 1.6 S/G
Jones: 1.6 S/G
Belanger: 1.5 S/G
Gilbert: 1.2 S/G

For a grand total of 19.8 shots per game. Paajarvi was firing 1.9 pucks on net per night but he's no longer on the roster. The Oilers need ten shots per game from their defense and fourth line that they aren't getting, and that's just to reach league average. The defensemen the Oilers have used have been good for just 0.84 shots per game between them so far (Ryan Whitney has just 6 in 15 games). The top six forwards should be good for at least 15 per game on their own. Paajarvi proves that shooting pucks on net doesn't necessarily create scoring, but the puck will go in exactly 0% of the time if it isn't directed on goal.

Shots Against: The Oilers are sitting in 20th place when it comes to Shots Against per Game, because they are allowing an average of 30.8 per night. Aside from Gilbert and Smid, the defense has been as ugly as expected. Ryan Whitney has struggled to return to form, and the current bottom three D-men combine for just 217 games of NHL experience (Potter, Petry, Peckham). Each is a good player in his own right, but there are bound to be growing pains along the way when you're dealing with that much inexperience.

Goaltending: Shockingly, the trouble with the goaltending has been Devan Dubnyk, not Nikolai Khabibulin. Khabibulin has posted an impressive 2.00 GAA and 0.932 Save Percentage and a record of 10-7-5. Unfortunately, his counterpart has not fared as well, with a 3.10 GAA and 0.903 SV% and a dismal 4-8-0 record on the season. If Khabibulin had played every game the Oilers might have come up with a few more wins, but that simply isn't practical. Dubnyk has got to be better for the Oilers to succeed. Even if he had a .500 record that would represent an improvement of 4 points in the standings and push the Oilers up to 9th in the West and 15th in the NHL.

Overtime/Shootout: Edmonton has only one shootout win in four tries this year, and that came way back on opening night against Pittsburgh. Like it or hate it, the shootout is a legitimate way to accumulate points and the Oilers aren't getting them. Last year the Oil were 2 and 9 in the shootout and things aren't looking any better so far. They scored just 8 shootout goals all year, but this season the Oilers have already scored 6 goals on 16 opportunities. Unfortunately, they have been marred by a 28th-place 0.467 Save Percentage in shootouts.

Giveaways: The Oilers have given the puck away more than any other team in the NHL so far, with a total of 370 misadventures. At least part of that can be chalked up to the inexperience of the players, and the ability to hang on and make good decisions may come with time. On the other hand, Edmonton finished last in giveaways in 2010-11 as well, so some of the old habits are dying hard. The good news here is that the Oilers are 11th in takeaways with 230.

Faceoffs: Despite an obvious effort to improve in this area, the Oilers are still 26th in the league in team faceoff win percentage at 48.0%. In fact, that number is an improvement over last year's 44.2% win percentage. Shawn Horcoff has dipped down to 49.2% but Eric Belanger is still comfortably above average at 55.4%. What the Oilers gained with Belanger they lost with Nugent-Hopkins, who, while improving, is still just 39.2% on draws. Sam Gagner hasn't played regularly at center this year, but he's up to an acceptable 49.5% on 103 times in the dot. Anton Lander is winning 41.1% of the time on the fourth line, which is not ideal for that role.

Hits: It's been said for years that the Oilers are too easy to play against and that's still true. So far this season they are 25th in the NHL in total hits with 590. They're on pace for just 1512 hits on the season, which would actually be down from last year's total of 1794.

***

The Oilers are average or above average on the powerplay, penalty kill, shot blocking, goals for per game, takeaways, goals against per game, and 5X5 goals for/against. That couldn't be said last year, when the Oilers were at or near the bottom of the league in every one of those categories save shot blocking and takeaways. There have been improvements, but they're hard to see when the team is still losing.

I can't stress enough that we knew this would be the case. One would be hard pressed to find anyone anywhere who thought before the season that Edmonton would be in the 2011-12 playoffs. This is a process, and the process is coming along, but there's still plenty of work to be done.

12/15/11 Griffin Reinhart Could Have An Extended Stay In Edmonton

2011-12-15T02:06:00.000-08:00

If the NHL season were to end before Thursday night's action, the Oilers - despite their improved play over last year - would finish in 22nd place. That would give them the 9th overall pick in the draft, and this is a draft that is rich in defensemen.

Over at the Copper and Blue, December's Consensus Top 100 draft eligible players list is out. This list takes the rankings of a number of sources into account and it should be considered a good picture of how players are being seen right now. Nine of the top 15 players on the list are defensemen, which is an area where the Oilers could still use some star power.

If the Draft was today, then the Consensus 100 list would see the Oilers selecting Griffin Reinhart. It could be a very good fit, considering that Reinhart already plays in Edmonton for the Oil Kings. The scouts wouldn't have far to go to get a lot of good looks at the young defender, and it doesn't hurt his case that he's playing with some pieces of the Oilers' future in Kristians Pelss and Martin Gernat.

Incidentally, Pelss is starting to come into his own offensively this season with 13-11-24 +20 in 32 games. Pelss had 14 goals all of last year. Gernat's plus/minus is even better at +23 (tied for the team lead) and he's posted 7-18-25 in 31 games. The Oil Kings have won ten straight and sit atop the WHL's Eastern Conference.

The Oilers have the horses to stay out of the basement this year, so the scouts will probably be taking a lot of looks at defenders who are expected to go sometime in the 5-20 range of the first round. On the other hand, we've seen some very highly rated defensemen plummet on draft day in recent years. Cam Fowler and Brandon Gormley were in the top-five conversation and fell to 12th and 13th overall respectively in 2010. In the 2011 Draft, Ryan Murphy slipped to 12th, and Dougie Hamilton made it to the ninth spot. The Oilers may get lucky with a player like this in 2012, but then again all the teams that passed on Cam Fowler will be wary of making the same mistake.

As for Reinhart, he's got 6-11-17 +11 in 25 games with the Oil Kings this season, and he's already a big body at 6'4" and 202 pounds. Could he be a player in the Shea Weber mould? Time will tell. For now, we know that Reinhart is big, mobile and has a good shot; attributes that made him the 3rd overall pick in the WHL Bantam Draft by the Oil Kings. He's now a big part of the turnaround of one Edmonton hockey team.

Perhaps he will stick around for another.

12/13/11 After 30 Games

2011-12-13T19:20:00.000-08:00

As has been the running theme this season, today we'll take a look at the Oilers' key numbers after a milestone game (this time it's game number 30) in order to understand how much better they are than the team that finished 30th last year.

As hard as the Oilers have been to watch in the last five weeks or so, this team is still improved in almost every meaningful category. As expected, they don't have the look of a playoff team just yet, but they are taking steps in the right direction. First we'll look at the Goals For and Against.

Goals For After 30 Games in 2010-11: 77
Goals For This Year: 82
Difference: +5

Despite massively improved offensive performances virtually across the board, the Oilers are only scoring slightly more this year than they were last year at this time. On the other hand, Edmonton's 82 Goals For puts them in 11th in the NHL and 12th in Goals For per Game.

Goals Against After 30 Games in 2010-11: 101
Goals Against This Year: 77
Difference: +24

77 Goals Against makes Edmonton tied for 13th in the NHL and 13th in Goals Against per Game as well.

All told, the Oilers had a -24 GF/GA ratio last year. This year they have a +5 in that regard, which is an improvement of +29 GF/GA from last season to this season at this time.

Shots For After 30 Games in 2010-11: 757
Shots For This Year: 791
Difference: +34

The difference isn't great but the Oilers are shooting more. However, they still are not shooting enough to win consistently. The Oilers are 23rd in total Shots For and 28th in Shots For per Game. Interestingly, only Anaheim (29th in NHL) and Minnesota (1st in NHL) are worse in the latter category.

Shots Against After 30 Games in 2010-11: 1039
Shots Against This Year: 906
Difference: +133

The Oilers have allowed 133 fewer shots this year than last, but again it's not enough. Edmonton is 21st in Shots Against, but they are better (14th) in Shots Against per Game. Last year the Oilers were 30th in the NHL and 21st in Shots Against and Shots Against per Game.

The Oilers allowed 282 more shots than they took after 30 games last year, while this year they have allowed 115 more than they have taken. That's good for a difference of +167 over last year at this time, but they are still getting consistently outshot.

Powerplay Goals For After 30 Games in 2010-11: 18 (16%)
Powerplay Goals For This Year: 24 (19.8%)
Difference: +3.8%

The powerplay has been one particular bright spot this season, thanks in large part to the wizardry of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The Oilers have scored the 4th-most powerplay goals in the league this year, and their 19.8% efficiency puts them 7th in the league. Last year the Oilers finished 27th on the powerplay.

Powerplay Goals Against After 30 Games in 2010-11: 33 (71.3% Kill Rate)
Powerplay Goals Against This Year: 22 (83.1% Kill Rate)
Difference: +11.8%

The penalty kill has wavered of late and like many of these numbers it's still riding on early season success. However, an improvement of 11.8% over last year at this time is certainly nothing to sneeze at. Last year the Oilers finished 29th on the PK at 77%, which is only marginal improvement over the first 30 games. It may be too much to hope that the PK will improve by almost 6% by the end of this year as well, but if it can remain at the current level it will be passable. 83.1% puts the Oilers ever so slightly ahead of Calgary in the overall standings at 13th in the NHL.

***

As you can see, things are clearly looking up. The Oilers teased us all into thinking that they were already a playoff team with their early season heroics. Coming in we all knew that this team had a long, long way to go from back-to-back 30th place finishes to a playoff spot, but that they were improved enough to get out of the basement. These numbers are in line with what we expected, and they won't go unnoticed across the NHL if they continue over a full season.

12/09/11 Notes On A Win

2011-12-09T22:36:00.000-08:00

That's more like it. Here are a bunch of notes on Friday night's 4-1 win over Colorado.

In the video above we see the uncanny connection between Jari Kurri and Wayne Gretzky. Everyone in hockey is resistant to make the Gretzky comparison to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and for good reason. Wayne had 137 points in 79 games in his first NHL season, which is a total that even Sidney Crosby has yet to hit. Still, there are things in RNH's game that are eerily similar to Wayne's. Does the first goal in the clip remind you a little of Nugent-Hopkins' pass to Sam Gagner for the fourth Oilers goal on Friday?

More importantly, Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle seem to have the beginnings of a connection that harkens back to the old Gretzky-Kurri days. The opposition must know that the cross-ice feed is coming from RNH to Eberle, but they just can't stop it. There's a new Fric and Frac in town.

- The old cliche proved to be true again. When the Oilers play their game they can dominate hockey games. On the other hand, the Oilers absolutely had to win this one. There was a serious fire lit under them by the coaches, the media and the fans. Last season we saw a team that played well after a swift kick in the behind and yet they still managed to fall to 30th place by year's end. The real test for this incarnation of the Oilers will be to see if they can stay motivated without being embarrassed first. That, and beating Calgary, which they absolutely have to do on Saturday. If they win against Calgary it may be evidence that the Oilers are for real. If not, there will be more work to do before this team is ready to contend for a playoff spot.

- Only Ben Eager played less than Magnus Paajarvi, and Eager did more with his time. That said, Magnus had some positive moments in this game and showed some real chemistry with Anton Lander. Having a player that Paajarvi is comfortable playing with is at least as important as one with a load of skill. Ales Hemsky may be much more skilled than Lander, but Lander and Paajarvi have been on the same team and on the same ice surface together for years. Sometimes in the NHL all you need is a duo, not a full line.

- Sam Gagner now has 10 points in his last 9 games. Playing with the sublimely skilled Nugent-Hopkins definitely helps, but Gags looks highly motivated out there and he's showing everything that he's capable of. He worked his way up to the top line without anyone else and doesn't seem to just be comfortable in a lesser role like some others - *cough* Hemsky *cough cough.* If the Oilers do (unfortunately) decide to trade Gagner, his stock is rising rapidly.

- Trading Hemsky seems to be a more and more attractive option. He still has the ability to be a game-breaker, but the Oilers have had to learn to get by without him - sometimes even when he's in the lineup. If things continue this way it may be time to do the once unthinkable and pull the trigger on a deal involving number 83. Hemsky isn't finished being a great hockey player, but there are certainly a number of GMs who will overpay for him based on past performance alone. It would allow the Oilers to get more size into the lineup with a player like Hartikainen, or even a Pitlick or Hamilton somewhere down the line.

- On the subject of trades - and I realize that this isn't Oilers related - Jim Rutherford managed to unload Tomas Kaberle to the Canadiens on Friday. Not only did the Hurricanes shed $4.25 million in salary over the next three years, but they also acquired an asset who is a pending Unrestricted Free Agent in Spacek. When the Canes flip Spacek for an asset at the deadline, this deal will look even better. If that asset turns out to be an actual NHL player, well, as they say in the Mafia: fuhgeddaboutit.

- Friday's game was a must-win from a morale standpoint, but Saturday against Calgary is almost as big. The Oilers need to crush the Flames to be respected and to respect themselves. If they do, they'll deserve that respect.

12/08/11 Gagner Is No Bust

2011-12-08T18:05:00.000-08:00

It didn't take the fans long to jump on Sam Gagner in what is supposed to be the turning point season of his time with the Oilers. He's had four years to figure it out and people want more. Now, finally, they are getting it.

The kid in the picture above is the same one that came into the NHL as an 18 year old and scored 49 points in 79 games. What he showed there was no mere flash in the pan; no anomaly. Gagner is a bonafide NHL player. If he's given the chance, he'll show everyone just how much of an impact he can make.

As yet, the only player from the 2007 draft that has more points and games played than Gagner is his former teammate Patrick Kane. Some players have a chance to catch him (Logan Couture comes to mind), but the Oilers would have been hard-pressed to do better with that 6th pick overall.

However, this season Sam started slow. He had just four points in his first 15 games, including a 7-game pointless streak which was his longest since his rookie year. In fact, as a rookie Gagner had a stretch of 7 games and 13 games where he didn't register a point. And yet he scored a career-high 49 points that same season.

From February onward, Gagner scored 28 points in the last 29 games of the season, aided by a run of nine consecutive games with at least one point. Before that, he had a modest 21 points in 50 games. In hindsight, it's easy to forget that his hot streak didn't start until February. It may seem needless to point out, but we aren't even through December yet in this young season, so it's a little early to judge Gagner's contributions. There's still a lot of hockey left to be played.

19 of Gagner's 42 points last season came after January ended, as did 24 of his 41 in 2008-09. In 2009-10 Gagner scored 15 of his 41 points from January 16th onward, and he also missed the last ten games of that year.

Having said that, it looks like Gagner's game may have already turned the corner this time around. He's collected 7 points in his last 8 games and is now up to 9 in 21 contests. His shooting percentage is an unsustainably bad 2.3%. 2.3%! If mere luck had allowed him to score at his career average percentage (say around 9%), he'd have 4 goals in 21 games and be on pace for 14 in 75, which is a total that he's still very capable of reaching.

Gagner's much maligned faceoff ability seems to have come around some as well, as he's sitting at 51.3% on 78 draws right now. Here is his progression year after year in the dot:

2010-11: 43.8% on 935 draws
2009-10: 47.4% on 709 draws
2008-09: 42% on 690 draws
2007-08: 41.8% on 299 draws

If he can keep up his current pace he'll be a perfectly acceptable option in the faceoff circle, as well as a solid offensive contributor. He's clutch around the end of the year when a team needs its players to step it up, and he's still extremely young and relatively inexpensive for the whole package that he brings.

The fact is that even if Sam Gagner ends up as a 50-point player for his entire career he'll be a solid draft pick and a very good second line center. Only 35 centers scored 50 or more points last year, which means that to have one of them is a huge boost. Incidentally, in an injury-shortened season Gagner was still 49th in points among centers last year.

Trading Gagner may seem to make sense to some at the moment, but he still has plenty of room to grow into his role. What's more, he's a more offensively gifted option for the second line than any of the Oilers' other centers. Shawn Horcoff may be outscoring Gagner at the moment, but Horcoff is 33 years old. It can't and won't continue for much longer, whether Gagner is an Oiler for it or not. It may be a hard pill, but eventually the Oilers will be better served to have Horcoff play less minutes and be a very good third line center while Sam fills the middle slot on the second unit.

Here is a look at the depth chart at center with and without Gagner, and the effect that injuries would have on the lineup:

Center depth chart with Gager included

Centers	Without RNH	Without Gagner	Without Horcoff	Without Belanger
Nugent-Hopkins	Gagner	Nugent-Hopkins	Nugent-Hopkins	Nugent-Hopkins
Gagner	Horcoff	Horcoff	Gagner	Gagner
Horcoff	Belanger	Belanger	Belanger	Horcoff
Belanger	Lander	Lander	Lander	Lander

Center depth chart without Gagner as an Oiler

Centers	Without RNH	Without Horcoff	Without Belanger	Without Lander
Nugent-Hopkins	Horcoff	Nugent-Hopkins	Nugent-Hopkins	Nugent-Hopkins
Horcoff	Belanger	Belanger	Horcoff	Horcoff
Belanger	Lander	Lander	Lander	Belanger
Lander	O'Marra	O'Marra	O'Marra	O'Marra

The depth chart is much stronger with Gagner on the team and with Lander as a callup than it is without Gagner. Pushing Lander down the depth chart gives the organization much stronger depth and means that one injury wouldn't be so devastating. It also means that Lander would be playing big minutes in OKC and would be that much better as a callup.

If the Oilers and their fans stay the course with Sam Gagner, he can still be a very big part of the future.

12/08/11 Honest Appraisal

2011-12-07T23:13:00.000-08:00

The collective fingers of Oilers fans are hovering over the panic button. It's not time to push it just yet, but after losing to a 29th place team on a 6 game losing streak, that time is approaching fast. Here are some notes about the loss and this streak of futility.

The Oilers are 4-5-1 in their last ten games, but that's actually a fairly flattering number. Edmonton is 5-10-1 since that whirlwind 6-game winning streak back in late October and early November. During that streak we were wondering if this team was for real, and we appear to be getting the answer.

The Oilers are continuing to score first (that's good!) and then blowing the leads (that's bad). Edmonton's 79 goals is 9th best in the whole NHL (that's good!), but their 76 goals against puts them in 17th (that's bad). Though inept on Wednesday, the powerplay is 8th in the league (that's good!). Unfortunately, the penalty kill continues its downward spiral and is sitting in 16th (that's bad).

The men with the Oil drops on their sweaters have outshot the opposition just nine times in 28 games. What's worse, they're just 4-4-1 when outshooting their opponent this season.

But if we're talking solely about the time since the winning streak, here are some other numbers:

Goals For prior to/during winning streak: 27 (2.25 GF/G)

Goals For since WS: 51 (3.18 GF/G)

The Oilers' scoring has been more in line with what we expected since that winning streak than it was before and during. Unfortunately, so has the defensive side.

Goals Against prior to/during winning streak: 16 (1.33 GA/G)

Goals Against since WS: 57 (3.56 GA/G)

Edmonton is allowing better than 2 goals per game more than they were to start the year. When the GF/G number is smaller than the GA/G over an extended period, you're going to have a tough time winning hockey games.

Penalty Kill % prior to/during winning streak: 5 goals allowed on 47 opportunities (89.4%)

Penalty Kill % since WS: 16 goals allowed on 72 opportunities (77.8%)

The Oilers have allowed at least one powerplay goal in each of the last 8 games, and in 12 of the 16 games since the winning streak ended. Edmonton's PK finished 29th last year at 77%, which is exactly what we've been seeing for the last 16 games.

- Nikolai Khabibulin's numbers are still more than respectable at 2.00 GAA and 0.932 SV%, but Devan Dubnyk hasn't been getting it done in the crease. He's got a Goals Against Average of 3.10 and a 0.899 save percentage to go with a record of 4-6-0. Khabibulin has lost 6 times in regulation as well, but he's started 7 more games than Dubnyk has.

- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins became the fastest Oilers rookie ever to score 30 points, having done it in just 28 games. Jason Arnott needed 35 games for the feat back in 1993-94. The game against Carolina could very well have been the battle of the reigning and future Calder Trophy winners. It's certainly going to be difficult for any of the other rookies to catch RNH. Nashville's Craig Smith is the next closest in points with 22 in 27 games. Even better, Nugent-Hopkins is tied for 5th among rookies in plus/minus at plus-5. Former first-overall-contender Sean Couturier is better at plus-7, but he only has eight points.

***

The Oilers probably aren't actually as bad as they've been in the last six games (1-4-1), but they also aren't as good as that early season stretch would have us believe. It seems almost impossible that they could finish 30th for a third straight year, and that's thanks in large part to their offensive production. Nugent-Hopkins needs just 14 points in the next 54 games to better Jordan Eberle's team-leading 43 from last season. The Oilers have 5 players on pace to improve on those 43 points by a mile, and 6 on pace for 20 or more goals.

We knew coming in that this would be the strength of the team and that the other elements would be weaker. That simply means that things are proceeding on schedule (or massively ahead of schedule in the case of RNH), and there's nothing wrong with that.

12/16/11 Realigning Expectations

2011-12-05T23:27:00.000-08:00

Thanks to the tireless efforts of a team of graphic designers, I am pleased to give you the map of the NHL's new Four Conferences. Everyone, say hello to your new rivals.

If you don't know your geography (hands up if you know exactly where all these cities are in your head) the map helps to show why the Conferences are laid out like they are. It's all neat and tidy out West and then it gets a little funny looking out East, but that's the way the decision makers decided to do it so that Boston, Montreal and Toronto would stay together and so would Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Washington gets lumped in with Pittsburgh there as well, which will make for some marquee matchups come playoff time.

As for the Oilers, this is not good news. The road to the playoffs is going to be paved through 5 playoff teams from last year. Vancouver, San Jose, Anaheim, Phoenix and Los Angeles were ranked 1st, 5th, 9th, 11th, and 12th in the entire NHL last season and under the new system at least one of them will be guaranteed to miss the playoffs.

15 of the top 30 scorers in the NHL from last year will be located in the new Conference of which the Oilers will be a part. If Edmonton is going to compete they will have to hope to add a few names of their own to that list.

The trouble is that the Oilers can be a very good team and still miss under this system, which isn't good for a team that is at the tail end of a rebuild. It's safe to say that for the foreseeable future Vancouver, San Jose and Los Angeles will be all but assured of a playoff spot under almost any system. That leaves exactly one opening for five teams.

This development may cause the Oilers to take a step backward in their development next year. Edmonton will get San Jose, Los Angeles and Phoenix twice more than they do now. The Oilers should be ahead of Phoenix by next year, but those other two are a different story. Not only that, but under this system every team will play at least two games against every other team in the league (home and away). That means the Oilers will now get powerhouses Pittsburgh, Boston, Philadelphia and Washington twice a year.

There's always the chance that the Phoenix Coyotes will need to be moved out of their current home and possibly to another Conference. Some of the candidate cities:

Seattle: The Conferences would remain the same.
Kansas City: A team would move out of Conference B (the red circle one). Possibly Winnipeg would join Edmonton's Conference.
Quebec City: Who the heck knows. Either there would be a whole new realignment, or the Conference in black would have eight teams. The latter would be the fairest way.
Vegas: Conferences remain the same.

Undoubtedly there will be plenty of pros and cons to the new system that we can't even see yet, but it will be interesting to watch it unfold. It's a whole new landscape and the shifting may not be over yet.

12/04/11 By The Numbers: Hall, Oilers, Standings

2011-12-04T15:25:00.000-08:00

If the season ended today, the Oilers would finish 17th in the league, which is a quantum leap forward from last year. Here are a boatload of other numbers about a variety of topics ranging from Taylor Hall's importance to the team to the quality of the penalty kill.

Let's start with Hall. It's impossible to overstate the importance of Taylor Hall to this Oilers team. Last season the Oil were 12-1-4 when Hall scored at least one goal, and this year they are 5-0-0 when Hall scores. Overall, that means the Oilers have a record of 17-1-4 when Taylor Hall riffles the twine. The Oilers are 4-12-5 with Hall out of the lineup altogether, although that stat is a bit deceiving because there were so many other corresponding injuries last season.

- While we're on the subject of injuries, here is a look at three key ones from last year and how they affected the team:

Oilers record last season with Hemsky, Whitney and Hall all in the lineup (we'll call this the control): 6-5-2; 46.1% Winning Percentage, 53.8% Points Percentage

Record without Hemsky: 11-17-7 overall. 32% Winning Percentage, 42.6% Points Percentage

Record without Whitney: 13-28-6. 27.6% Winning Percentage, 34% Points Percentage

Record without all three: 3-10-4. 17.6% Winning Percentage; 29% Points Percentage

Obviously losing all three was devastating, but these numbers indicate how important Ryan Whitney was to the Oilers last year. They also show how much better this team could have been if all three had stayed healthy for any length of time. The Oilers weren't as far away from being competitive as it looked, but they couldn't ice a healthy squad. If they ever manage to get all three of these players (let alone RNH) together for an extender period, watch out.

- Edmonton's record when Jordan Eberle scored last year: 10-5-2. This year: 6-2-1. Overall: 16-7-3.

- After December 3rd last year the Oilers were 9-12-4 with 22 points, good for 15th in the Western Conference and 26th in the NHL. The Islanders, Devils, Leafs and Panthers were worse at that point. In fact, the Islanders had a record of just 5-14-5 and 15 points. Interestingly, Colorado had a record of 13-9-3 (Edmonton is currently 13-11-3) after December 3rd and the same 29 points that the Oilers have this year. Colorado ended up finishing 29th.

- Edmonton's powerplay is 5th in the NHL right now and 1st at home, where it's clicking 25% of the time. The Oilers' 22 total powerplay goals is tied for 3rd in the NHL.

- The penalty kill has dipped down to 15th overall, but it's actually been better on the road than at home. The Oilers are 15th in the league in PK% at home and 13th outside of Rexall. The Oilers have allowed 19 powerplay goals which puts them in 23rd place. The least PP goals allowed by a team this year? That would be New Jersey, which has allowed just 5 in 25 games.

- After one game Nugent-Hopkins was 13.3% in the faceoff circle. After four games he'd improved to 24%. He's now sitting at 37.3% on draws, which isn't great but isn't horrible. He won a career-high 71% against Nashville on November 28th.

- The Oilers' best player in the faceoff dot right now is actually Ryan O'Marra. O'Marra has won 10 of the 14 draws he's taken so far, good for 71.4%. Sam Gagner has taken 74 faceoffs and won exactly half of them, which is a stat that should make fans rejoice. Shawn Horcoff has taken by far the most draws of anyone on the team at 535. He's won 49.3% of them so far. Among those who have taken at least 100, Eric Belanger is best with a 55.2% winning percentage on 373 faceoffs total. Overall the Oilers are 27th in faceoff winning percentage. At 712 and 790, the Oilers rank 24th in faceoffs won and 24th in faceoffs lost.

- The Oilers are 27th in Shots For per Game, which is going to have to improve. Right now they are averaging just 26.3 per outing.

- The Shots Against per Game total is much more encouraging. The Oilers are 13th in the NHL in that regard, allowing an average of 30 per game.

- The last few games have been a bit of an anomaly in that the Oilers have blown leads. Overall the team is 10-4-3 when scoring first, and 4 of those losses have come in the last 5 games. That also means that the Oilers have scored first in 17 of their first 27 games (63% of the time), while last year they scored first in just 32 games (39% of the time).

No matter how you slice it, the Oilers are better. This is definitely a season to build on, whether they make the playoffs or not.

11/29/11 Lander Should Not Have Remained in the NHL

2011-11-29T21:10:00.000-08:00

Before all the Anton Lander fans out there decide they want to start putting anthrax in my pillowcase, it should be said that Lander is a good player and will be part of the future of the Oilers. It's just that the future isn't now.

The decision to keep Lander in the NHL even after Sam Gagner returned from injury has had far reaching effects on the team. Through no fault of his own (at least to begin with), Gagner was unable to slot into his natural position at center because the Oilers had four healthy ones already in RNH, Horcoff, Belanger and Lander. After coming off a season shortened by injury and having to start the season late because of one, Gagner was being unintentionally set up to fail. On a team deep in wingers, Gagner had no hope of breaking into the top six, and was playing out of position.

A lot of the rationale for keeping Lander was that he was playing well in his role, which is true. Anton Lander is a good hockey player and the penalty kill was performing admirably. As a matter of fact, the Oilers' penalty kill is 9th in the NHL at the moment, so the team must be doing something right. However, Lander is sitting down in 10th among the Oilers when it comes to PK ice time per game, and 5th among the forwards. The only other forward that averages more than a minute of PK time per game is Lennart Petrell, which means Lander is essentially the second-least active forward among the regular penalty killing forwards.

His faceoff ability is certainly no better than Gagner's either. He's 68 and 107 in the NHL this year, for a 38.8% total. Gagner is sitting at 48.5% after 66 draws.

Lander has put up 2 points in 23 games thus far, which means that he's on pace for just 7 points all year. His lack of offensive contribution has been part of the struggles of the bottom six to chip in some goals.

But it's hard to put up offensive numbers when you're not getting any ice time. Only Petrell, Eager and Hordichuk are averaging less ice time per game than Lander is. He's currently counted on for 11:08 of ice time per night, and 1:41 seconds of that is shorthanded. Much like Hartikainen, it would probably be better for Lander to have learned the pro game in the AHL by playing in all situations and lots of minutes each night.

Now that Taylor Hall is injured the Oilers are stuck keeping Lander in this situation (although he may now be injured as well), but it could have and should have been rectified a long time ago. Anton Lander played well enough in camp to earn an NHL spot and Gagner's injury sealed it, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he should be in the NHL when the Oilers have other options. Jeff Petry was demoted so that his development wouldn't be stunted by lack of playing time, and that same path should be taken with the forwards when necessary.

11/26/11 More Odds & Ends: Edmonton vs Calgary

2011-11-26T13:30:00.000-08:00

Feaster's wager is looking more and more like a very bad bet as the days and games go by. The Oilers are now 9 points clear of Calgary in the standings, and they're breathing the rare air of playoff position. The last time the Oilers finished ahead of the Flames? That would be 8 years ago, in 2002-03.

Of course, 22 games does not a season make, but so far the trends seem to be clear. On this date last year Calgary was 9-11-2 with 20 points, which put them 5 points out of a playoff spot. They went 24-11-9 from January onward and still missed the post season by 3 points. It's not that their current 9 point deficit is insurmountable, but it's going to require even more from the Flames than they did last year. Is this team capable of that?

Jarome Iginla is a notoriously slow starter, but right now he's being outscored by Tom Gilbert and carrying a team-worst minus-11 rating. He had 18 points by this date last year (in 22 games), and had scored 9 times, while this season he's got a modest 6-4-10. Again, there's nothing saying that Iginla won't put his game together, but traditionally he's scoring by now.

He's not getting much help either. Alex Tanguay is leading the team with 15 points and Curtis Glencross is pacing them in goals with 7. The Oilers currently have five players with at least 7 goals, and all of those players have more points than Tanguay.

As a matter of fact, the Oilers have scored the third-most goals in the Western Conference to this point with 62; 17 clear of Calgary's output. It's rare that Oilers fans get to rub it in a little, so let's all enjoy it while we can.

***

While we're pumping the tires of the Oilers, let's look at a few other tidbits.

- Edmonton currently has the 5th-best powerplay in the NHL, which is clicking at a 22.2% clip. Last year's powerplay? 27th in the league with 14.5% efficiency.

- The penalty kill is 7th-best in the league, since it's killing 86% of opposing teams' opportunities with the man advantage. Last year the Oilers killed just 77% of the penalties they took and finished 29th in the NHL on the PK.

- Last year the Oilers were 21st in shots against per game; averaging 31.7 against each night. So far in 2011-12 they have improved to 12th in that regard, averaging 29.5.

It's not all roses though. The Oilers are averaging fewer shots per game than they did last season. So far they are 29th in the league with 25.7 shots per game, while last year they were 29th with 26.7 S/G.

The special teams are really what tell the tale of the season so far. Last year 8 of the top 10 teams on the powerplay ended up making the playoffs, as did 8 of the top 10 penalty killers. All three teams (Vancouver, Montreal, Tampa) that were top ten in both the PP and PK ended up making the playoffs, and two of them had deep playoff runs. Just sayin'.

- The Oilers were 6-12-4 after 22 games last year. They were on pace for 60 points and finished with 62. In 2009-10 the Oilers had a record of 9-10-3 after 22 games. They were on pace for 78 points and ended up with 62. The season before that they were on pace for 82 points and finished with 85. Pace is not an exact indicator of the eventual point total, but none of these teams were on pace for a playoff spot after 22 games and none of them made it.

There are dangers with this, though. Edmonton was 13-8-1 in 2006-07 after 22 games (101 point pace), but finished 6th-last in the league. Of course, that was when Ryan Smyth was traded away and the Oilers proceeded to lose 18 of their final 20 games (only one of those in OT). Before that they had a record of 30-26-6, which put them on pace of 87 points.

In other words, the rate your team is winning at after 22 games is a decent indicator of how their season will go; barring some crazy unforeseen circumstances, that is. If that holds true for this year, Oilers fans should be doing backflips with joy. There may not be playoffs in the future this season, but there probably will be meaningful games in April.

11/23/11 Odds & Ends: Carle Rumor, Minnesota, Iginla, Rieder

2011-11-23T21:43:00.000-08:00

This article is suggesting that the Philadelphia Flyers are going to be looking to move Matt Carle in the near future, and lists the Edmonton Oilers as one of the teams that might be interested. Ah, the rumor mill. How little sense you sometimes make.

Carle is set to become an Unrestricted Free Agent in the off season, which means that whichever team decides to add him will probably be a contender. If the Oilers are still in this spot in the standings before the deadline there's a possibility that the Edmonton will want to bolster the blueline, but Steve Tambellini said that he doesn't feel under pressure to make a deal for a defenseman despite his depleted group.

Nor should he. This defensive group has performed admirably under trying circumstances, and has earned a chance to run with this thing. If the Oilers decide that Carle is a player that they are interested in adding, they can always do it in the off season without having to give up an asset.

Having said that, the Oilers are perhaps one very good defenseman away from having their team finished. The hard part of building the forward battery is more or less done, and the way the defense has been playing suggests that it may be closer than any of us thought. For the sake of argument, let's assume the Oilers are able to sign Ryan Suter in the off season as a UFA. Next year's pairings would look something like this:

Suter - Whitney

Smid - Gilbert

Potter - Petry

Peckham

Those are three quality pairings that could match up with just about any in the NHL, especially after Petry gets another year of experience under his belt. That still leaves Teubert, Chorney, Plante and eventually Fedun on the farm as callups.

Obviously there's no guarantee that the Oilers will pursue a player like Suter, let alone get him signed, but a top-pairing defenseman appears to be the final large piece of the puzzle.

------------------

With Calgary struggling to make up ground in the Western Conference and a playoff spot slipping away, the talk about trading RW Jarome Iginla has started up again in earnest. He's coming off a 43 goal, 86 point campaign last year but the market for Iginla in trade might be smaller than anyone thinks.

Every team in the NHL would love to have Iginla on their roster, but there are other things to take into consideration. A team must have the cap space to take on his $7 million cap hit, or be able to clear the space in a trade. The team must be a contender because that is the only kind of team that will give up assets to acquire him and the only kind of team Iginla is likely to waive his No Move Clause to go to. After the trade is said and done, Iginla must be a clear upgrade for the potential suitor, which limits the number and quality of roster players that are moved for him.

The Washington Capitals could move Semin to clear room for Iginla, but it would take more than a pending UFA to get a deal done. The Buffalo Sabres can clear out the cap space for Iggy, starting with moving Brad Boyes and his $4 million hit, but again the Sabres will need to greatly sweeten the pot. There aren't many contending teams that can take on Iginla's contract without doing a significant roster shakeup. Among those few teams are Chicago ($5.5M in space currently), Detroit ($5.3M), and perhaps the Minnesota Wild ($7.9M). Will one of those teams make a pitch for Iginla if he becomes available?

- While we're on the subject of the Minnesota Wild, it's worth noting how hot their start has been. In fact, they're on top of the Western Conference with 29 points. But, as we've already seen, sometimes hot starts can be a mirage. The Wild have scored the fewest goals of any team currently in playoff position in the West, and the 4th-fewest in the Conference. On the other hand, their 42 goals against is the best in the West and it's due in large part to the play of their goaltenders.

Before this season, Niklas Backstrom had a career Save Percentage of 0.917 and a 2.42 GAA. Before Wednesday night's game, his numbers were 0.935 SV% and a 1.97 GAA.

Josh Harding had a career SV% of 0.915 and a 2.66 GAA coming into this season, but before Wednesday he had a 0.945 SV% and 1.79 GAA this year.

Unless the 6th-lowest scoring team in the NHL can manage to find some offense, they will have a hard time stringing wins together when their goaltending comes back down to Earth. That will be good news for everyone in the Conference, and most particularly those in the Northwest Division. If only Edmonton could win against Minnesota.

- Everyone has a favorite prospect outside the NHL, and Tobias Rieder is slowly becoming one of mine. The 114th overall pick (Rd 4) in 2011 has had a fantastically hot start to this season. He's amassed 18-13-31 in just 23 games with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL, after 23-26-49 in 65 games as a rookie. If he keeps it up he's on pace to score 51 goals in 65 games, and collect a total of 88 points. At just 5'10" and 165 pounds his prospects of having success beyond the NHL aren't great, but they will depend on his drive and willingness to do whatever it takes. Hockey's Future lists his compete level as an area of strength, so there's a chance he could end up as a late round gem from the Magnificent Bastard.

11/21/11 After the Quarter Pole

2011-11-21T23:49:00.000-08:00

The Oilers have now played their 20th game of the year, and we are one quarter of the way through the season. Here are a bunch of notes and facts about the first twenty, and a comparison to the previous [horrible] seasons.

- The Oilers have scored 50 goals. After 20 games last year the Oilers had scored 49 goals.

- 47 pucks have gone past Oilers goaltenders this year, while last year at this time the Oilers had allowed a whopping 82 goals against.

- Without that 9 goal outburst against Chicago the Oilers would actually be greatly below their goal output from last year. On the other hand, they have shown staggering improvement defensively over this time last year.

- In 2009-10 the Oilers had scored 58 and allowed 63 after 20 games.

- The Oilers have put 505 shots on goal this year (25.25 SF/G), and allowed 586 (29.3 SA/G)

- Edmonton sits in 10th place currently, which is the better than the previous two seasons after 20 games. The Oilers had won all of 5 games last year at this time, so 10 wins is like a revelation.

- Oilers' records after 20 in the years since the lockout:

2005-06: 10-9-1 (Stanley Cup Final)

2006-07: 11-8-1 (Did Not Qualify for Playoffs)

2007-08: 7-12-1 (DNQ)

2008-09: 9-9-2 (DNQ)

2009-10: 8-10-2 (DNQ)

2010-11: 5-11-4 (You get the idea)

- Number of Western Conference teams that were outside the playoff picture on November 21 but ended up making the playoffs since the lockout:

2005-06: Anaheim, San Jose

2006-07: Calgary

2007-08: Calgary, Nashville

2008-09: St. Louis (14th in the West on this date, but made it), Columbus

2009-10: Vancouver, Nashville

2010-11: Nashville, Anaheim, San Jose

That's just 12 teams in six years that have made the post season after not being in on November 21. The good news for the currently 10th place Oilers is that there's at least one team each year that got in after being on the outside. The bad news is that only two outside teams make in per year on average, and Vancouver is all but guaranteed to be one of them this season.

- Points for Ryan Smyth this year: 20. After 20 games last season: 7-5-12

- Points for Taylor Hall this year: 14. After 20 games last season: 4-5-9

- Points for Jordan Eberle this year: 18. After 20 last season: 4-8-12

- Points for Shawn Horcoff this year: 12. After 20 last season: 7-7-14

- Points for Tom Gilbert this year: 10. After 20 last season: 3-2-5

- Points for Magnus Paajarvi this year: 1. After 20 last season: 2-4-6

- Points for Eric Belanger this year: 3. After 20 last season: 4-6-10

You win some, you lose some. Overall there's improvement everywhere. Plenty for beleaguered fans to be happy about.

11/20/11 Duh, Winning

2011-11-20T01:23:00.000-08:00

Did you see that? The Oilers ~~beat~~ destroyed Chicago on Hockey Night in Canada. If ever there was a time to send a message to the whole of this hockey-crazed nation, it was Saturday against the best team going. Here are some notes from the game:

- Told you he was going to be fine. Taylor Hall scored his second career hat trick faster than John Tavares, Steve Stamkos or Patrick Kane scored two. He's back on pace to score 27 goals and nobody would be shocked to see him score more than that. There's nothing like a hat trick to get people to stop worrying. After having a shooting percentage of just 7% coming in, 75% of Hall's 4 shots went in on this night.

- Theo Peckham responded from a minus-3 night against Ottawa by going plus-5 against Chicago in just 14:52 of work.

- Jeff Petry had a whale of a game with 3 assists and a plus-5 rating as well.

- Nugent-Hopkins is back on a point-per-game pace with 7-12-19 in 19 games. He tallied 5 assists in just 13:20 of ice time. It might be a tad premature to think that RNH could match or better Jari Kurri's 75 points in 75 games as a rookie, but nights like Saturday make it seem possible. If Nugent-Hopkins only scores a point every two games from now on, his 50 total points would make him the 5th-highest scoring Oilers rookie of all time. Sam Gagner currently holds that spot with 49 points, which is a note of caution. On the other hand, Gagner only had 9 points in his first 19 games as a rookie.

- Speaking of Sam Gagner, he was one of nine Oilers who went without a point on Saturday. Magnus Paajarvi was held without a point as well. Both of them looked more dangerous than they have recently, but it's time for them to start scoring.

- The Oilers now have five players on pace for 50 or more points, and four players on pace for 20 or more goals. If the season ends that way, it will be a vast improvement over last year. In 2010-11 the Oilers had one 20 goal scorer (Hall) and no players with 50 points.

- Edmonton is now just barely back inside the playoff cut line with 22 points. We all talk about wanting the team to play meaningful games in March, but the truth of the matter is that just playing meaningful games in December would be a nice change. The Oilers haven't had a winning record after 19 games since 2008-09.

- This was a good game to be at. Besides all of the goals and the electric atmosphere in the building, the best part of being there was the fans' chant of "We Want Ten" after the Oilers scored their ninth goal. For those who don't remember, the fans sarcastically chanted "We Want Ten" when the Oilers were down 9-2 against Buffalo back in 2009. The Sabres lit up Dwayne Roloson for 3 goals and Jeff Deslauriers for 7 on the way to a 10-2 drubbing. Chicago won 9-2 in Edmonton on December 16th of that same year, so there's a certain amount of symmetry to Saturday's game. This win, and that chant, were like seeing the Oilers turn the corner; even if it was just one night of many on the road back to respectability.

11/16/11 Slump? What Slump?

2011-11-16T21:42:00.000-08:00

Rumblings are beginning that Taylor Hall is slumping, and it's made worse because Tyler Seguin has been tearing it up over in Boston this year, with 20 points in 16 games. Did the Oilers pick the wrong man? In a word: nope.

First let's look at the stats:

Hall: 16 games played, 3-8-11, Even
Seguin: 16 games played, 11-9-20, plus-15

At first glance it appears that Seguin is tearing Hall a new one in the heads up comparison, but there are a few things to consider here. First of all, Tyler Seguin is scoring on 22.4% of the shots he's taken so far. That is a percentage that is simply not sustainable. Seguin has taken only 6 more shots than Taylor Hall, but he's scored 8 more goals.

Taylor Hall is scoring on just 7% of the shots he's taken so far and has 3 goals. Over their two short NHL careers, Hall has a shooting percentage of 10.9% and Seguin's is 12.2%. If they were each scoring at their career average percentage, Seguin would have six goals and Hall would have five.

It's also important to remember that Tyler Seguin is playing on a team that won the Stanley Cup last year and didn't have an enormous amount of turnover on the roster, but Taylor Hall is playing on a team that finished 30th with a center that has just 17 games of NHL experience. Nugent-Hopkins is a very good player, but he's still a raw rookie. Ironically, being a linemate of RNH has meant that Hall has been sheltered much more than he was last year, and his average ice time has suffered by a full minute per game.

Despite all that, Hall actually is doing better than last year. After 16 games last season Hall had accumulated 3-4-7, and a minus-7, while this year has has 3-8-11 and is an Even player. Even though he wasn't scoring a ton to start last year, he ended with 22 goals in 65 games. Last year he had three stretches of seven games without a goal and still his scoring was strong overall. This eight game drought is a minor blip.

Taylor Hall is going to be fine. Just saying.

11/15/11 Who's Going to Miss the Playoffs?

2011-11-15T23:55:00.000-08:00

Last time we looked at the teams that were in playoff position last year after 17 games, and who stayed there. Today we'll find out why teams that started in playoff position dropped out, and see if the same fate is likely to befall the Oilers.

Columbus: The Blue Jackets were off to their best start in franchise history last year at 11-6-0 after 17 games. In fact, they made it all the way to 14-6-0 in their first 20 before the wheels fell off on their season. So what happened?

In those first 20 games Steve Mason was merely average, posting a 0.902 save percentage and finishing the year with a save percentage of 0.901. No real anomalies there. However, his counterpart Mathieu Garon started that year with a 0.943 SV%, three shutouts in 7 games (plus one relief appearance), and a record of 6-1. His save percentage came back down to Earth in a big way after that, as he finished at 0.901 and with a record of 10-14.

After those first 20 games, Columbus proceeded to lose 5 straight and 14 of their next 20. The Jackets allowed 609 shots on goal in the first 20 games, and those shots resulted in 47 goals against (0.923 SV%). In the next 20 games Columbus allowed 608 shots on goal and they resulted in 70 goals against (0.885 SV%). But things didn't really get dismal until the end of February. Columbus managed just 3 wins in their last 22 games. Their goaltenders allowed 75 goals over span on 648 shots, for a 0.884 SV%. Only Colorado and Edmonton allowed more goals in the West that year.

St. Louis: The Blues were 12-5-3 in their first 20 games last year, but ended up finishing in 11th place in the West. It's much the same story as Columbus. Jaroslav Halak was 10-4-2 to start the year, with 3 shutouts. His save percentage was North of 0.920 ten times in those 16 games. In the entire rest of the year it was above 0.920 17 more times in 41 appearances, and it was sub-0.900 on 17 occasions as well. He won 17 games the rest of the year. Ty Conklin wasn't much relief, finishing with a 0.881 SV% and 3.22 GAA.

Dallas: An average team that nearly made it but fell out on the last day of the season. This team didn't exactly over achieve early on, and they finished about where they ought to have (9th). The fact that they were in the playoff picture early on and fell out was merely because the race was so tight.

Minnesota: Niklas Backstom's save percentage was above 0.930 in 9 of his first 14 starts, and above 0.920 in 11 of them. He had a record of 8-4-2 to start the year. Jose Theodore was 3-2-0 in his first 5 starts for Minny, posting an impressive 0.920 SV%. Both goalies finished the year with identical 0.916 save percentages and Minnesota missed the playoffs. The two would combine for 24 more wins in their next 60 starts.

***

There are certainly many other factors (injuries, trades, bad luck) that conspire to make a team miss the post season after being so good early on. However, hot goaltending has the uncanny ability to mask the other deficiencies that a team may have, and make that team appear better than it is. None of these goalies finished with abysmal save percentages by the end of the year, but all of these teams (save Dallas) had goaltenders that were playing well above their norm early in the season.

Interestingly, a marginal team like Nashville got into the playoffs on the back of a 0.929 save percentage from Pekka Rinne, and it was Jonas Hiller's 0.924 SV% that pushed Anaheim into the post season as much as anything else (50 goals from Corey Perry didn't hurt though). Phoenix probably didn't belong in the playoffs either, but Dave Tippet's systems and the 0.921 SV% of Ilya Bryzgalov got them through.

Not all playoff teams have great goaltending. Jimmy Howard's save percentage last year was a modest 0.908 and he won 37 games, but that's because Detroit has a very good team.

If the Oilers had average goaltending would they be where they are now? If the answer you're thinking is no, then that means Edmonton is very likely to miss the playoffs because this type of stellar goaltending isn't likely to continue. But these performances from Khabibulin represent a feel-good comeback story, so who cares if it's not sustainable? The Oilers are showing flashes of what they will be, and we all knew that was the best we could hope for coming in.

11/13/11 Who's Going To Make It?

2011-11-14T20:11:00.000-08:00

The Edmonton Oilers have played 17 games this season and find themselves in playoff position. Here is a look at last season's standings after 17 games from all the teams in the West, and who ended up in an out of the playoffs.

The actual standings at the end of last year were as follows:

1) Vancouver
2) San Jose
3) Detroit
4) Anaheim
5) Nashville
6) Phoenix
7) Los Angeles
8) Chicago
--------------------
9) Dallas
10) Calgary
11) St. Louis
12) Minnesota
13) Columbus
14) Colorado
15) Edmonton

However, after each team had played 17 games last year the standings would have looked something like this:

1) Detroit 12-3-2 -- 26 Points*
2) Los Angeles 12-5-0 -- 24 Points*
3) Vancouver 10-4-3 -- 23 Points*
4) Columbus 11-6-0 -- 22 Points
6) San Jose 9-5-3 -- 21 Points*
7) St. Louis 9-5-3 -- 21 Points
7) Dallas 10-7-0 -- 20 Points
8) Minnesota 9-6-2 -- 20 Points
----------------------------------
9) Anaheim 9-7-1 -- 19 Points*
10) Colorado 9-7-1 -- 19 Points
11) Nashville 8-6-3 -- 19 Points*
12) Phoenix 7-5-5 -- 19 Points*
13) Chicago 8-8-1 -- 17 Points*
14) Calgary 7-10-0 -- 14 Points
15) Edmonton 4-10-3 -- 11 Points

What can we learn from this? The teams with an asterisk beside them made the playoffs. That means that only half the teams that were in playoff position after they had all played 17 games actually made the playoffs. Of the teams that were out of playoff position after 17 games, none made the playoffs if they were more than 3 points out. No team that was below .500 made the playoffs.

Columbus dropped the farthest, having gone 11-6-0 to start the season and earning 22 points (64.7 points percentage), but winning just 23-29-13 in their next 65 games (45.4 points percentage) and finishing in 13th place.

St. Louis's record was tied with that of San Jose, but the Sharks finished 18 points higher in the standings by year's end. Despite strong starts to the season, the Blues and Jackets were only 2 and 3 points ahead of the 9th place team respectively.

Below is a look at this year's standings so far. Which of these teams are likely to maintain their strong starts, and which teams will fall off?

We can be fairly certain that over the course of the season Los Angeles and Vancouver will make the post-season. That means that at least two teams that are currently in the top 8 have got to come out. If last year's trend continues, and no team that is more than 3 points out of the playoffs at this point makes them at the end, that means Calgary, Anaheim and Columbus are finished. That leaves 12 teams fighting for 8 spots, and we know that Chicago, Vancouver, Detroit, San Jose and Los Angeles are almost certain to make it. Therefore there are 7 teams going after 3 playoff spots.

Which teams will those be? And will the Oilers be among them? Edmonton's 20 points is good for fourth in the West right now, but the team is only 3 points removed from 12th. The good news is that the Oilers have made it much, much easier on themselves to make the playoffs this year than last, but there is still a lot of work to do.

11/12/11 The Numbers Behind A Streak

2011-11-12T20:22:00.000-08:00

The Oilers have lost 3 of their last 4 games now, following a whirlwind 6-game winning streak. Let's have a peek at some of the data from those two streaks and see which result is likely to continue. The numbers may surprise you, but they probably won't.

The Win Streak - Oct 22 to Nov 3

17 Goals For (2.8 GF Per Game)
6 Goals Against (1 GA Per Game)
2 Shutouts
144 Shots For (24 SF Per Game)
181 Shots Against (30 SA Per Game)
6 Powerplay Goals For on 27 Opportunities (22.2% PP)
2 Powerplay Goals Against on 21 Opportunities (90% PK)
Oilers goaltenders had a combined Save Percentage of 0.972

The numbers show the extent to which the Oilers got absolutely ridiculous goaltending. 97% of the shots that came to the Edmonton net were stopped over the win streak, and the Oilers were allowing a lot of them. The Oilers were scoring on 11.8% of the shots they took, which isn't an outlandish number. The problem is that they weren't shooting enough to win games if their netminders were only average. Here is a breakdown of who was scoring when the Oilers were winning:

RNH: 6 points, Hall: 5 points, Eberle: 7 points, Smyth: 7 points, Potter: 6 points. Those five players combined for 31 points in 6 games.

Horcoff, Barker, Gagner, Sutton, Petrell, Jones, Plante, Gilbert, Petry, Eager and Lander combined for 18 points.

The Last Four Games - Nov 5 to Nov 11

8 Goals For (2 GF Per Game)
14 Goals Against (3.5 GA Per Game)
0 Shutouts
94 Shots For (23.5 SF Per Game)
117 Shots Against (29.25 SA Per Game)
1 Powerplay Goal on 12 Opportunities (8.3% PP)
3 Powerplay Goals Against on 19 Opportunities (84% PK)
Oilers goaltenders had a combined Save Percentage of 0.880

In the last four games the Oilers have scored on just 8.5% of their shots. They are still averaging the same number of Shots For and Against as they were when they were winning, but now they aren't scoring as much and their opponents have scored more. The reality of the goaltending situation is probably somewhere between the highs we saw during the win streak and what we are seeing now, but the amount of rubber finding each net has been a constant.

Ryan Smyth has had 5 points in the last four games, but the rest of the team has been mostly silent. RNH, Eberle, Hall, Peckham, Belanger, Teubert, Horcoff, Paajarvi, Gilbert, and Hemsky have combined for just 14 points in these last four games.

***

It goes without saying that the Oilers' best offensive players have to be scoring if the team is going to have any hope of winning, and over the last four games they haven't been doing that. However, the shot totals and save percentage numbers continue to paint a picture of a team that is outmatched most nights. Over an 82 game schedule, it's likely that these numbers will catch up with the Oilers unless they can learn to turn them around on the fly. There is plenty more to like about this team than any other incarnation since the '06 Stanley Cup Run, but the road ahead could be a bumpy one.

11/09/11 Comparing Two Unlikely Starts

2011-11-08T23:10:00.000-08:00

In 2009-10 the Colorado Avalanche were the toast of the NHL during the first segment of the season. After finishing 28th in the league the season before, Colorado managed to put an unlikely run together that ended with a playoff spot in the spring of 2010. Can the Oilers do the same?

That year Colorado was 10-2-2 by the 14-game mark. That's not at all dissimilar to the Oilers' record of 9-3-2. Like the Oilers this year, Colorado's success in 2009-10 hinged on the play of their goaltender. Craig Anderson was responsible for all ten of the team's wins by game number fourteen. Anderson started every one of Colorado's first 14 games that year, facing 477 shots over that span and stopping all but 29 of them. That's a 0.940 SV% to start the season, but Anderson would end the year with a save percentage of 0.917.

Colorado was outshot eleven times in their first 14 games, but managed to boast an 8-2-1 record in games in which they were outshot, obviously owing very much to the play of Anderson. The Oilers have been outshot only 7 times this year, but have a record of 4-2-1 when being outshot.

A healthy Paul Stastny lead the way in scoring for the Av's, registering 20-59-79 in 80 games after just 11-25-36 in 45 games the year before. Chris Stewart emerged as a legitimate scoring threat, posting 28-36-64 in 77 games after a rookie season of 11-8-19 in 53 games the previous year. And, perhaps most important of all, new addition Matt Duchene had 24-31-55 in 81 games.

So far the Oilers have 4 players on pace for 56 or more points: Taylor Hall (on pace for 56), Jordan Eberle (64), Nugent-Hopkins (70) and Ryan Smyth (82). Obviously not all of these players will reach these totals, but a player like Ales Hemsky has a chance to pick up some of the slack if he stays healthy for any length of time.

Colorado went 33-28-7 after their first 14 games, which is merely an average record. Once Anderson cooled off the team was nowhere near as effective, but they still finished 13 games over .500. Ten of those wins came in the first 14 games, and they were instrumental in that team making the playoffs by just 5 points.

The Oilers have had similarly hot goaltending to start the season and they [should] have the offensive firepower to make up for a dropoff from Khabibulin and Dubnyk. Peter Budaj had almost identical numbers to Anderson by the end of 2009-10, and the Oilers should be able to enjoy something similar with their netminders. Like Colorado, the Oilers are banking points early that could make a huge difference in April.

If the Oilers were to go 33-28-7 the rest of the way, they will have amassed 93 points. It wouldn't have been enough for a playoff berth last year, but it certainly would have had them in the conversation. But the fact is that even if Edmonton is .500 for the rest of the season (something like 30-30-8), their 88 points would make for a 26-point improvement over last year. That would be a tremendous leap forward and a make for a wildly successful campaign.

11/06/11 How's Everybody Doing?

2011-11-06T14:58:00.000-08:00

Despite a loss on Saturday, we all know how well the Oilers' players have been doing. But what about the players on the farm? And what about the ones that have left or that the team has recently traded away?

Linus Omark: Omark has collected 4 assists in 2 games since being assigned to OKC, and is an Even player. Once again an assignment to Oklahoma City has lit a fire under this player and so far he seems determined to get back to the NHL.

Philippe Cornet: The Oilers' 5th rounder in 2008 was a strong scoring threat in the QMJHL but failed to translate his production to the American Hockey League during his rookie season last year. As a rookie he managed 7-16-23 in 60 games in OKC, but this year he's already got 8-1-9 in 10 games and seems to be figuring it out. If he ends up as a quality AHL player he'll still be a good selection in the 5th round.

Gilbert Brule: The center has put up 4-2-6 in 8 games on the farm and is a minus-3. These numbers would be respectable in the NHL, but Brule will need to do better if he wants to get back there as an Oiler.

Teemu Hartikainen: Four goals and 7 points in the first ten games as well as a plus-2 rating. Hartikainen had 0.64 points per game in the AHL last season and 0.70 points per game so far this season. His numbers are good, but he's going to have some work to do to get to the NHL ahead of Omark. Either that, or he'll have to hope for a load of injuries with the big club.

Curtis Hamilton: In his first pro season, the Oilers' 48th overall pick in 2010 has put up just 2 assists in 7 AHL games and is a plus-1, following an 82 point, 62 game campaign in the WHL last year. Cornet has showed that one cannot panic too much about the play of an AHL rookie, and Hamilton still has the tools to be a solid two-way NHL player if the offense fails to come.

Tyler Pitlick: 1-2-3 in 9 games with OKC so far, along with an Even rating. Another player that seems to need some time to learn the pro game, but who showed plenty of potential.

Martin Marincin: After coming out of the gate on fire last year, Marincin slowed down in the second half but still ended the season with 14-42-56 in 65 games with Prince George of the WHL. This season Marincin has 1-7-8 in 12 games and is a plus-3, while last year he finished as a minus-12. 0.81 points per game in the WHL so far in his career.

Martin Gernat: 6-12-18, plus-8 in 16 games for the Oil Kings. Gernat's start in the WHL has been similar to fellow-Slovak Marincin. It will be interesting to see how his production fares as the season drags on.

Tobias Rieder: The 114th overall pick (4th round) in 2011 has put up 9-9-18 in 15 games for the Kitchener Rangers. Not bad for a later pick.

Tyler Bunz: 12-4-0 record with Medicine Hat this season, along with a 2.36 GAA and 0.928 SV%. Bunz has established himself as one of the top goaltenders in the WHL and is putting up the best numbers of his career.

Frans Tuohimaa: 4-0-1 with Jokerit in the Finnish Elite League. He's sporting a snazzy 2.16 GAA and 0.918 SV%.

Olivier Roy: Former Canadian World Junior starter has gone 0-3-2 with Stockton so far, but with a respectable 2.35 GAA and 0.914 SV%.

David Musil: Never pegged as an offensive-defenseman, Musil has still developed his offensive game in the WHL with the Vancouver Giants. He's posted 1-9-10 in 18 games so far, while last year he had 25 points in 62 games. More importantly, Musil is a plus-7 on a fairly average Giants team, after finishing Even last year.

Ryan Martindale: Martindale has just one assist in his first 7 games with the Stockton Thunder and is a minus-1. Martindale has good offensive tools but the 61st overall pick in 2010 has work to do to get to the big show.

Andrew Cogliano with the Ducks

Andrew Cogliano: 1-1-2 in 13 games so far with Anaheim. He's a plus-4 but so far his offense hasn't shown much more life than it did in Edmonton. Still working to justify his $2.39 million cap hit.

Zack Stortini: Has only played in one game with the Predators this season, registering 7 PIMs. Has one goal in 8 games with the Milwaukee Admirals.

J.F. Jacques: Posted 3-3-6 in six games with Syracuse of the AHL. Lower levels of competition have always been kind to Jacques, who once had 27 points in 29 games with Wilkes-Barre, but 0 points in 37 NHL games that same year.

Riley Nash: Oilers' 21st overall pick in 2007 (later traded to Carolina for the pick that became Marincin) has 1-2-3 in 11 games for the AHL's Charlotte Checkers.

Rob Schremp: 6-7-13 in 20 Swedish Elite League games. Schremp has 20-34-54 in 114 NHL games with the Oilers, Islanders and Thrashers, but couldn't find NHL employment this off season. He's minus-23 in his career, which probably has a lot to do with it.

Liam Reddox: 6-5-11 in 20 SEL games and a minus-7 rating.

Marc-Antoine Pouliot: The man who shall forever be known as Not-Zach-Parise has 1-2-3 in 4 games with Tampa Bay's AHL affiliate in Portland. 53 points in 173 NHL games, while Parise has 349 in 432. If you don't know the history, the Oilers traded the 17th overall pick in 2003 (Parise) to New Jersey for the 22nd overall pick (Pouliot) and the 68th overall pick (J.F. Jacques).

Jeff Deslauriers: 3-2-0 with the Syracuse Crunch of the AHL. JDD has posted a 4.40 GAA and 0.862 SV%, which is making the Oilers look very right to have let him go.

Brad Winchester: 13 penalty minutes in 12 games with the Sharks and one assist to go with it.

Alexei Mikhnov: 5-4-9 in 18 KHL games this year and a plus-3 rating. Mikhnov spent the last 4 seasons with Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, but left in the off season before the tragic plane crash.

Jani Rita: The 30-year old has 10 goals and 14 points in 19 games with Jokerit Helsinki of the Finnish Elite League this year. Rita has played the last six seasons in Helsinki, posting 146 points in 236 games; including a career-high 32 goals and 52 points in 56 games back in 2006-07.

11/04/11 Quick Hits on a Win

2011-11-03T23:27:00.000-07:00

Here are some quick facts about Thursday's win against the Kings:

- Last year the Oilers got their 8th win on December 1st against Montreal, which was in the team's 24th game of that season.

- The Oilers improved to 8-8-1 in their 17th game of 2009-10 on November 8th of that season.

- This is Edmonton's best start since the 2001-02 season, when the Oilers came out of the gate 8-4-1. That year they finished in 9th place in the West.

- One more game without a point will match Magnus Paajarvi's career high for futility. Last season he went 13 games without a point from November 7th to the 29th, but finished the year with 34 points. That either means that we shouldn't hit the panic button yet, or that there are some serious questions about Paajarvi's offensive capability.

- Only Shawn Horcoff is averaging more ice time per game among the forwards than 35 year old Ryan Smyth. Smyth's addition to this team cannot possibly be overstated, and hopefully he has a few more good seasons in him.

- Speaking of Shawn Horcoff, it's nice to have a captain that can play a regular shift. Ethan Moreau averaged only 14:24 of ice time per game in his last year in Edmonton, while Horcoff is averaging 21:04 and plays in every situation.

- Thank heavens that the Oilers didn't give up on Ladislav Smid. He wanted to be a top-4 defenseman and he's showing that he is all that and more.

- The Oilers are turning around the frightening trend that was creeping up on them in the games against Washington, Colorado and Vancouver. After being outshot 60 to 113 in those three games, the Oilers were tied in shots with St. Louis at 30 and outshot their opponent on Thursday for the first time since doing it to the Rangers back on October 22nd.

- Edmonton has allowed 20 or fewer shots 3 times in the first 12 games, and 30 or fewer in 6 of the first 12.

11/02/11 Adjusting Success by Save Percentage

2011-11-02T23:01:00.000-07:00

It's time to make an honest appraisal of the Oilers' goaltending to this point and discuss how much it really has to do with the team's success. Khabibulin and Dubnyk have been great, but these two puckstoppers can't possibly keep it up. Will the fortunes of the Oilers follow suit?

Let's start with Khabibulin. So far this season he's faced 199 shots and he's stopped all but 8 of them. That's good for a 0.960 Save Percentage, which is an incredible number. However, over the course of his career Khabibulin has averaged a SV% of 0.908, which is a fairly pedestrian number. We can expect his play to drop off at some point if only because of fatigue, and he'll probably end the season closer to his career average when it comes to the percentage of shots he stops. At 0.908, Khabibulin would have allowed around 18 goals in these first seven games, which is more than double what he has actually allowed so far this year.

Even if Khabibulin was stopping shots at his best sustained rate over a full season (0.923 SV% in 63 games in 1998-99), he'd still have allowed somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 goals so far.

What that means is that at best the Oilers have allowed 7 fewer goals than they should have thus far, and at worst they have allowed 10 fewer. That would make for team totals no better than 25 Goals For and 25 Goals Against, and probably closer to 25 GF and 28 GA.

And Dubnyk? Devan Dubnyk has a career SV% of 0.909, but this season he's flying high at 0.938, having allowed 8 goals on 129 shots. If he was closer to his career total SV%, Dubnyk would have allowed 12 goals in his 4 starts. Last year, Dubnyk had a SV% of 0.916 over 35 games, which is a respectable and sustainable total. With that type of efficiency he would have allowed around 11 goals this year. Of course, Dubnyk does have the potential to improve, but a 0.938 SV% over a whole season would put him in the conversation for the Vezina, and it's unlikely that he'll be able to maintain that kind of performance.

With these adjusted numbers taken together, the Oilers probably should have allowed 14 more goals than they have this season, if their netminders were playing at the level of their career average. That means they would still have 25 GF, but they would have allowed 32 GA (including game winning shootout tallies). It's pretty obvious that the Oilers' record would be significantly worse than 7-2-2 with numbers like that. This early win streak has been fun, and it's shown a glimpse into the future, but the future may still be far off unless the team can make more strides in a hurry.

11/02/11 Where Will Omark Land?

2011-11-01T23:35:00.000-07:00

Lowetide wrote an interesting article on OilersNation on Tuesday discussing the possible destinations for Linus Omark other than Edmonton. Both he and Jim Matheson mention the Carolina Hurricanes, but there is no way to know what that team would be willing to give up. So what would the Oilers want?

This article claims that the Hurricanes would be willing to part with a defenseman to acquire a forward. Before the season began Oilers fans were champing at the bit for an experienced rearguard, but now things have changed. Even with Whitney out the team's defense has been stout as any in the league. Still, there is always room to improve the backend, even if it simply means that the Oilers can bring their home grown defensive talent along more slowly.

Jamie McBain is probably the best target for the Oilers among Hurricanes players. The 23 year old has posted 43 points in 98 career NHL games, and is a minus-4 in that time. McBain is young enough to fit into the long term plan in Edmonton and he brings an offensive element to the blueline that was not overly abundant before Corey Potter started setting the world on fire. McBain is good insurance against a dropoff or injury from Potter, and would add some offensive depth to the defense. He is also a right-handed shot.

Further, the Hurricanes would be able to replace McBain immediately with Justin Faulk, who is also an offensive-minded defenseman. Faulk has collected 1-4-5 in 6 AHL games so far this season. In the long term, Carolina has Ryan Murphy in the fold, who amassed 26-53-79 in 63 OHL games last year before going 12th overall in the 2011 Draft.

If, during his return trip to the AHL, Linus Omark can put up numbers that are anywhere close to the 14-17-31 he posted in 28 games with OKC last year, he will once again be a hot commodity. He could be valuable enough to be used to acquire something decent, and with Hemsky and Hartikainen in the picture he'll almost certainly have to be dealt at some point.

10/29/11 By The Numbers: After Ten Games

2011-10-29T17:10:00.000-07:00

Ten games into the season the Edmonton Oilers are 6-2-2, good for first in their division and in the Western Conference. Let's have a look back at the 2009-10 season, where the Oilers started 6-3-1.

- This year the Oilers have put 255 shots on opposing nets, while in 2009-10 the Oilers managed 249. That's just 6 more this year over the first season the Oilers finished 30th.

- 298 shots have found their way to the Oilers' net, and in 2009-10 the Oilers allowed 338. That's 40 fewer shots this year than 2009-10.

- All told, the Oilers had a -89 shots for/against differential in 2009-10, and this year they are at -43.

Unless the team can start consistently outshooting their opponents, there's a very good chance that the wheels will fall off this early season success. Based on these numbers, things aren't as bad as that 30th place team from two years ago, but they aren't good enough to have sustained success.

- This year the Oilers have scored 8 powerplay goals on 44 opportunities, which is 18.2% efficiency. In 2009-10 the Oilers had scored 10 powerplay goals in the first ten games, or 23.3% of the time.

- This year the Oilers have allowed 4 powerplay goals after being shorthanded 43 times, which is a 90.7% kill rate. In 2009-10 Edmonton allowed 9 powerplay goals after being shorthanded just 39 times. That's just 76.9% efficiency.

- 20 goals have been scored by Edmonton this year, while the Oilers scored 37 in ten games back in 2009-10.

- This year the Oilers have allowed 14 goals, and the 2009-10 team allowed 30 in ten games.

- The Oilers have scored on 7.8% of their shots this year, while they scored on 14.9% of their shots in 2009-10.

Clearly these are two very different squads. The team was scoring at an inflated rate in 2009-10, which also bloated their record. They were allowing a lot of shots and goals against but their scoring was keeping their heads above water. When the goal scoring came back down to earth, the team went into the tank.

This year the Oilers are scoring a modest amount of goals, with totals that are certainly sustainable, and may even improve. The goals and shots against will tell the tale for Edmonton this year. They won't always get stellar goaltending, but they have done a better job of limiting the opposition than they did after ten games in 2009-10. The goals against have more than halved from that disastrous season.

One thing to remember is that the Oilers played 3 road games out of the first ten in both 2009-10 and this season, which means they had home ice advantage much more often than not. Last year the Oilers were an awful team even in the early going, and they played 5 road games in the first ten.

Obviously it will take a larger cross section of the season to tell how good this team really is, but it appears to be better than the Oilers who started with 6 wins in ten games and finished 30th. The team is almost certainly not as good as their record - and the standings - indicate right now, but things are improving.

10/28/11 Measuring Stick

2011-10-27T23:24:00.000-07:00

By the narrowest of margins, the Oilers scored a 2-1 victory over the Washington Capitals on Thursday night. Back in July in the "Comparing Rebuilds" series, this blog called the Capitals the closest comparison to the Oilers among teams that have built through the draft. Ovechkin's team, then, truly is a measuring stick for the progression of these young Oilers.

Some notes from the game:

The Oilers were outshot 35 to 19 in this game, but the scoring chances were much closer at 13-18 in favor of the Caps. If the Oilers had lost this game nobody would have been greatly disappointed, especially considering that Washington is the best team in the league. The fact that the Oilers were able to keep this thing even reasonably close is a testament to their improvement.

However, it's also a testament to the amount of penalties that Washington took. When Taylor Hall is allowed 7:02 on the powerplay, most of the time he's going to make something happen with that ice. Eberle had 6:54 and Nugent-Hopkins had 6:16 on the powerplay. Corey Potter spent 6:04 on the ice with the man advantage and took advantage with 2 assists. Potter has had a fantastic start, now having collected 6 points in 7 games.

And let's not forget Khabibulin, who continues to roll along with a 0.97 GAA and 0.964 SV%. If it weren't for back-to-back games, Devan Dubnyk would have a hard time getting into the net. Who would have thought that it would be Dubnyk who would have to showcase himself this season?

- Hall, Eberle and RNH bled chances against badly at 5v5, but their effectiveness on the powerplay makes up for it. It's no wonder that Renney has been starting those three in the offensive zone more than 60% of the time. They got hemmed in by the Caps on several occasions, but Hall and Nugent-Hopkins managed some game saving shot blocks near the end.

- Nugent-Hopkins continues to be on a point-per-game pace. One key difference between him and Taylor Hall was that Hall came into the NHL on a line with Shawn Horcoff and Jordan Eberle. Horcoff is a good player, but he's no offensive dynamo; while Eberle too was a rookie. Nugent-Hopkins' linemates are both experienced NHLers who perfectly complement his skill set. Also, Hall had to play behind Dustin Penner on the depth chart, while RNH has been the Oilers' best option at center from the get-go. That's not to take anything away from Nugent-Hopkins' many obvious talents, but he is coming into a better situation than his counterpart Hall did last year.

- It's early, but Taylor Hall is on pace for exactly 30 goals. He's also on pace to rifle 263 shots on goal over 81 games. That total would have been the 21st-highest in the entire NHL last year. He has yet to go a game without registering a shot, and he's had at least 3 in six of the eight games he's appeared in.

- Speaking of shooters, Jordan Eberle has had a shot in every game this year as well, and at least 3 shots in six of the nine games he's played.

- Alex Ovechkin had 7 shots on goal in this game, but Khabibulin was equal to the task. The final one that rang off the crossbar would have changed this game, but the Oilers got the bounce. That's payback for the one that went in for Heatley. The Oilers will still have four chances to beat the Wild this year, but beating Ovechkin & Co. to end their 7-game win streak is much sweeter. Many fans would take that trade in bounces.

Despite the fact that the Oilers have been outshot in their last two games by a wide margin, Edmonton actually out-chanced Vancouver 18-15 on Tuesday and kept the scoring chances close against Washington. Thursday's result could just as easily have gone the other way, but the Oilers probably deserved the win against the Canucks. Fantastic goaltending has helped a great deal, but the Oilers don't look significantly worse than their record. In a seven game series against Washington the Oilers wouldn't stand a chance, which is a measure of how far they still have to go. However, there are signs of marked improvement that - so far - don't seem to be abating.

10/25/11 The Potter Experiment

2011-10-25T01:40:00.000-07:00

For the moment, let's all forget about the fate of some other defensemen who wore #44 for the Oilers, and assume that Corey Potter's career is going to follow a kinder, friendlier path. Just who is this Potter fellow anyway?

Quick bio for those who don't know:

- Born in Lansing, Michigan on January 5th 1984, which makes him 27 years old
- Drafted in the 4th round (122nd overall) in 2003 by NYR
- Some notables who were selected after Potter in 2003: Kyle Quincey, Lee Stempniak, Brad Richardson, Bruno Gervais, Joe Pavelski, Kyle Brodziak, Tobias Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien, Matt Moulson, Jaroslav Halak
- Potter is 6'3" and 206 pounds

So what took Potter so long to reach the NHL? There were a number of factors. Tom Renney said Potter simply got caught in a numbers games in New York, but the 2003 draftee didn't turn pro until the 2006-07 season. He played 4 years for Michigan State University before that, picking up 44 points in 150 games.

Interestingly, Potter's totals were modest - to say the least - in his first three years of CCHA hockey with MSU. Over that span he collected just 22 points in 105 games. Then, in his final year there he picked up 4-18-22 in just 45 games (also the highest single season number of games played in his career to that point).

He debuted with the Charlotte Checkers of the ECHL in 2006-07 scoring 6-13-19 in 43 games and earned a 30 game callup to the Hartford Wolfpack of the American Hockey League. While there he bagged 2-8-10. In 2007-08 he played his first full year in Hartford, scoring 5-27-32 in 80 games, as well as a sparkling plus-33 rating. However, he showed a propensity to take penalties and had 102 PIMs that year. His PIMs decreased every season from that time on, until he got them down to 52 PIMs last year with Wilkes-Barre.

Over Potter's AHL career, he's collected 28 goals and 111 assists for 139 points in 321 games (0.43 p/g), and posted a plus-88 rating. He was never a minus player in any of his AHL seasons.

So far Potter is averaging 3:36 of powerplay time per game with the Oilers, which is more than any other player on the team, and just 1:21 of penalty kill time, which is good for 11th. He's 8th on the Oilers in even strength ice time per game at 14:58, which is 6th among the 8 defensemen Edmonton has used. Only Andy Sutton and Theo Peckham have averaged less ice time at even strength. All told, he's averaging nearly 20 minutes per game, but a decent chunk of that has been relatively cushy powerplay time.

He's played well enough to deserve to be in the Oilers' lineup, but his presence also helps to shift everyone else back into their proper positions. Ladislav Smid, for example, averaged 45 seconds of PP time per game last year, and needless to say that's not Laddy's area of expertise. Sometimes there simply was no other option. Smid also played 2:40 of PK time per game in 2010-11. This year Smid has played only 3 seconds on the powerplay per game, while he's averaged 4:32 on the PK. That's thanks in part to the fact that the Oilers can deploy Potter for some of the softer minutes, and that Potter has been very capable in how he's used that time.

Five games is a very small sample size, but Potter may be a player who is ready to step in full time. He's not so much a late bloomer as he is a seasoned veteran - he simply didn't learn the ropes in the NHL like other players often do. It should be noted that that method of developing D-men has served Nashville well, and has contributed to their seemingly never-ending pipeline of quality blueliners. After another thirty games or so we'll know if Potter is legit.

10/23/11 By The Numbers: The Oilers So Far

2011-10-23T16:35:00.000-07:00

Now that we are seven games into the season, we are starting to get a picture of what this Oilers team is going to look like. Here is a brief look at some of the underlying stats from this year and how they compare to last season's 30th place squad.

- The Oilers have fired 226 shots on goal this year, which is up from 192 at this time last year. That may seem a little strange, since the Oilers are playing a more defensive style of hockey this season, but they are actually getting more pucks to the net.

- They have allowed 186 shots against this season, which is down from 233 after the first seven games in 2010-11.

- All told, the Oilers currently have a +40 differential of shots for and against, while at this time last year they had a differential of -41.

- Right now the Oilers are scoring on around 5% of their total shots on goal. Last year at this time, they were scoring on 10% of their shots. If the Oilers had scored on ten percent of their shots this season, they would already have about 23 goals, rather than the 12 that they do have.

- In 2010-11 the Oilers had allowed 25 goals after seven games, which is an abysmal 3.57 Goals Against per Game. This year, the team has allowed 10 goals in seven games, which is good for 1.43 Goals Against per Game. Expect that number to climb a little over the course of the year, but reducing the GA/G by 2.14 is an excellent sign early on.

- At this time last year, Taylor Hall had just one assist in his first seven games. This year he's got a goal and 4 assists in 6 games.

- Jordan Eberle had 5 points by the seven game mark last year, including 3 goals. He's got 5 points this year too, but their all assists.

- Ales Hemsky played in Edmonton's first 7 games last season, scoring 3 goals and 5 points. This year he's got into only 2 contests and picked up one assist so far. Oilers record without him in the lineup this season: 2-2-1.

- Magnus Paajarvi had 2-2-4 in the first seven games of last season, as well as 21 shots on goal. This year he's got no points, and has directed 16 shots on goal.

- Linus Omark didn't get into the NHL lineup until December 10th of 2010, but in his first seven appearances he managed to put up 5 points. Assigning him to OKC seemed to light a fire under him last year, but it isn't an option this season, because if he's not playing in the NHL his contract allows him to go to Europe if he chooses to. He'd still be Oilers property, but he couldn't return this season.

- Shawn Horcoff already had 3 goals and 5 points by this time last year, but he's had to settle for 4 assists so far this year. Last year he had ten shots in 7 games, while this year he has only 8. The captain has been good this year, but he'll need to shoot a lot more than that if he expects to get off the schneid.

- Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle have each got 20 shots on goal in 13 games between them, but only one goal has come out of those shots. The fact that they are putting lots of rubber on net means that both will break out eventually.

So far the the Oilers are doing a better job than last year at generating offense, and limiting that of the opposition. The fact that their scorers haven't been scoring is more a measure of luck than effort, because the big guns (Hall, Eberle, RNH) have all been doing good things offensively, and these numbers reflect that. Even Paajarvi has not been as bad as it looks at first glance. So far his shot totals are down from last season, but his 16 SOG is tied for 4th most on the team. Linus Omark's 7 shots puts him way down the list, and unless he starts to pick up his play he'll have a hard time getting back into the lineup. As yet, his totals are the only obvious disappointment.

When the Oilers start getting bounces, this team will be dangerous.

10/20/11 Quick Thoughts from Game 6

2011-10-20T23:45:00.000-07:00

Well, that was a heartbreaker. Not only did the Oilers let a divisional opponent claw their way back and win a game, they did it for the second time in three days. Oh well, at least Dany Heatley didn't score the tying goal. What's that you say? Ah, crap.

Jordan Eberle had a strong game, despite the fact that he was unable to convert any of his chances. That makes him 0 for 19 shots on the season so far, but he's getting a load of quality looks. Remember last season when Hall couldn't find the back of the net in his first 7 games? It seemed like a long stretch at the time. By the time he got injured and was on pace for 28 goals, no one was thinking about those first 7 games. When Eberle starts scoring, expect them to come in bunches.

- By this time last year, the Oilers were 2-4-0, with 21 goals against. So far this year the Oilers have allowed just ten goals, which is a dramatic improvement. Unfortunately, it's only resulted in a slightly better record, because the team isn't scoring. After six games in 2010-11 the Oilers had scored 15 times, while this year they've managed to score just 10 times. Yes, this defensive style isn't the most exciting to watch, but it's keeping the team in games much more effectively than what we saw last year. The Oilers have lost all of their games this year by one goal or in the shootout, and they should probably have won two of those games. In Game Six last year the Oilers were blown out 6-1 by San Jose, and they had lost each of their three previous games by 2 goals.

- Anton Lander made a great case for remaining in the NHL after this game, but it isn't likely to matter. Lander will more than likely be demoted to the AHL before Saturday to make room for Sam Gagner, but he looks like he's starting to get the NHL figured out. Lander is a determined player, so expect him to light up the American League in an effort to earn a callup.

- The Oilers have yet to drop below .500 this season, and hopefully the return of Gagner against the Rangers will extend that streak. So far the pattern has been W-L-L-W-L-L, so a win is all but guaranteed! ... That's how these things work, right?

10/19/11 Where Are They Now? The Picks from the Penner Offer Sheet

2011-10-19T22:39:00.000-07:00

Pictured above is Kirill Petrov, who was one of the players selected with picks that would have belonged to Edmonton, were it not for the signing of Dustin Penner to an unmatched offer sheet in 2007. The Oilers surrendered three picks for Penner - a first, second and third rounder in 2008. How are the resulting players doing, you ask?

Petrov was selected by the Islanders in the 3rd round, after Anaheim traded the Oilers' compensatory pick to them. The Russian had 4-6-10 in 6 games at the 2010 World Junior Championships, which was tops on the team, and added a plus-7 rating. Despite this, his stock had been dropping like a stone until this season. He wasn't getting a lot of opportunity to play for the powerhouse Ak Bars Kazan of the KHL, and found himself demoted to that team's affiliate for most of last season. He made good use of his time there, however, scoring 8-11-19 in 47 games. As a result of his demotion, he did not appear in the Islanders' list of top ten prospects in the 2011 THN Future Watch.

This year Petrov has started strong, scoring 7-3-10 in the first 15 games; this time with Kazan. The KHL is by no means on par with the NHL, but so far Petrov is showing that he can be an effective scorer in Russia's highest league.

Justin Schutlz

Justin Schultz was selected by the Ducks with the Oilers' second round pick, and has been a fast riser in that organization. He finished last season with 18-29-47 in just 41 games for the University of Wisconsin after posting 6-16-22 as a freshman. Schultz is not a large defenseman at 6'1" and 185 pounds, but he has the offensive tools to make up for it. He's a powerplay whiz, who has started this season with 5 assists in 4 games for the Badgers. Schultz was ranked as Anaheim's third-best prospect in the 2011 Future Watch, and the 59th-best overall prospect outside the NHL.

Tyler Myers

The Oilers' first round pick in 2008 - which was the 12th overall pick - was eventually used by Buffalo to select defenseman Tyler Myers. Myers' story speaks for itself at this point. The 6-foot-8, 227 pound giant has become the cornerstone of Buffalo's defense, amassing 21-65-86 in 167 NHL games. He won the Calder as Rookie of the Year in 2010, and on September 15th of this year Myers was re-signed to a $38.5 million deal spanning 7 years. He has the tools to round into one of the league's best defenders, if he's not among them already.

***

The jury is still out on who ultimately won the Penner offer sheet, however. The Oilers ended up with the player who went one selection after Myers in that draft, Colten Teubert, once they traded Penner to LA. Edmonton also received a first round pick in the Penner trade - which became Oscar Klefbom - as well as a third round pick in this year's draft.

On the other hand, the Oilers' rebuild would be greatly accelerated at this stage if it had a player like Myers in the fold, along with another high-end defensive prospect close to a pro debut. Of course, there's no guarantee that the Oilers would have taken any of the players that were selected with their picks, but the point is that those players were available.

The Oilers got 155 points over 4 seasons out of Penner, and they also ended up with the two 1st round picks and a 3rd round pick in exchange for 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2008. On the surface it appears that the Oilers won, but much will depend on how Teubert, Klefbom and the as-yet unused 3rd round choice pan out. Right now, all three of those assets couldn't get you Tyler Myers alone, which means that the Oilers are likely to have lost in the end.

10/17/11 Glimpses

2011-10-17T22:59:00.000-07:00

Are we seeing a glimpse into the future of the Edmonton Oilers? The Oilers came out and played an almost perfect game on Monday night, which is something that hasn't happened in Oil Country since... Well, since... Hmm...

The photo of Ryan Smyth above came from the last time the Oilers were in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The blast from the past is injecting some life into this team, and he's teaching the kids all the right habits along the way. Here are some other notes from the game:

- Jason Gregor made a great call when he predicted that Nugent-Hopkins would improve his faceoff stats in Game 4. Gregor thought RNH would win 5 of 11 draws, while in actuality the youngster won 5 of 12. That's a large improvement over his 2 for 15 showing on opening night, just 3 games ago. Before the Draft, people said that there was nothing that Nugent-Hopkins couldn't do once he put his mind to it, and he's made strides in proving those people right when it comes to his only real weakness in faceoffs. He's now a modest - but improved - 24% overall.

- The last time the Oilers limited an opposing team to 12 shots on goal was way back on March 1st of 2006 in a baffling 4-2 loss to St. Louis. The Oilers have now outshot the opposition in 3 of the 4 games to start the season.

- In 2009-10 the Oilers started the season 2-1-1, which lead many to believe that the team was playoff bound. They ended up finishing 30th and selecting Taylor Hall. Some key differences between this team and that team? Most important are the resulting 1st overall picks that came from those 30th place finishes, but here is some raw data:

In those first 4 games of 2009-10, the Oilers outshot the opposing teams just once; in a 4-3 loss to Calgary. They mustered 105 total shots on goal over those four games, and allowed 118. So far this season the Oilers have 112 shots on goal and have allowed 107.

The Oilers have been shorthanded 20 times and allowed 3 PP goals against (PK of 85%). In the first four games of 2009-10 the Oilers were shorthanded 15 times and allowed 4 PP goals against (PK of 73.3%).

The point here is that the underlying flaws in the team were present even while it was winning back in 2009-10. The Oilers started that year 6-3-1 despite only outshooting the opposition once in that span. So far this year the underlying stats are more favorable. Of course there's no guarantee that the trend will continue, but getting Gagner and Whitney will almost certainly make the Oilers better.

- Horcoff and Belanger are both North of 60% in the faceoff circle. Having Belanger on board means that Horcoff doesn't have to take all of the difficult draws anymore, which can only help him. So far he's at 62.6%. Belanger has been a massive addition for the penalty kill, and Steve Tambellini gets a gold star for picking him up. The former Coyote spent 4:03 on the PK in Game 4; more than any other Oilers player. Nashville's powerplay went 0 for 5 on the night, and the last three opportunities didn't even result in a shot on the Oilers' goal.

- Ryan Suter played 28:17 in this game and was strong for almost all of it. He took two penalties, but despite playing nearly half the game he ended up Even on the night. Sound like someone the Oilers could use? Nashville has the look of a team that isn't going anywhere this season, and if they don't make the playoffs or exit in the first round, Suter might jump ship via Unrestricted Free Agency. This will be the year that UFAs start looking at Edmonton as a realistic option, but Suter might price the Oilers out of the market for him. If he wants Shea Weber money - a $4 million bump from his current stipend, up to $7.5 million - the Oilers would be wise to let him sign elsewhere. All these kids are already going to need raises in a few short years.

- As great as this win was, it's important to remember that it's only Nashville. They can't score at the best of times, and Martin Erat and Mike Fisher were both out with injury. The real test is tomorrow. Not because Calgary is any good, but because it'll be a hard fought affair and the Oilers will be a little tired. If we see an effort that even approaches what we saw tonight, it may signal the start of something special.

10/16/11 Odds & Ends: Ottawa Trade Rumor, Game 3, Ballard

2011-10-16T15:57:00.000-07:00

Normally there is no reason to believe anything that Eklund says over at Hockeybuzz, but if there's any truth to this rumor, it could be interesting indeed. Ottawa is deep in high end defensive prospects, and the Oilers have forward depth, so there may be a deal here.

Pictured above is Jared Cowen, who was selected 9th overall in 2009. He almost certainly would have gone higher in that draft if he had not been injured part way through his draft year. The 6'5" and 235 pound Cowen had 18-30-48 in 58 games last year with the Spokane Chiefs, and was a fantastic plus-44.

If the term "major swap" is accurate, only a player like Cowen would qualify. It seems unlikely that the Oilers would be willing to make a move for Sergei Gonchar, Filip Kuba or Chris Phillips, so that leaves one of the Senators' three rising defensive stars. Erik Karlsson must be considered untouchable, and Ottawa traded for Rundblad, which means they must have faith in him.

Keep in mind that there is no reason to believe that Cowen is available, but the Senators are one of the few teams with enough young defensive depth to make a trade possible. If something did happen the price would be high, which would qualify this as a major deal.

- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins settled the issue of whether or not he'll be staying in the NHL on Saturday. The fact that he's 7 for 38 in faceoffs matters less and less the more that he scores. After having no shots in game 2, RNH had six in game 3. He's got a shooting percentage of 44.4%, so expect his scoring to come back down to Earth in the coming weeks. The good news is that he's got the tools to set up his linemates and put up points even when he isn't scoring, so his production doesn't necessarily have to slow if the goals dry up.

Again the Oilers fell flat in the third period. After outshooting the Canucks 12-8 and 14-9 in the first 40 minutes, the Oilers managed just 4 shots in the third. They still outshot Vancouver 30-26 and didn't get blown out by the Stanley Cup Finalist, which is enough to keep fans happy for now.

RNH has been stealing all the headlines, but there's nothing wrong with Hall and Eberle's point production so far. Both have 3 assists in the first 3 games.

- Ryan Keller has 2-4-6 in 4 games with the Barons down in Oklahoma City, and if he keeps it up he may earn himself a callup ahead of Teemu Hartikainen when injuries strike. Hartikainen has 1-1-2 in the first four contests on the farm.

- The Canucks would like to move Keith Ballard, but they may find that difficult considering his monster contract. Ballard might be able to help the Oilers blueline, but 4 more years at $4.2 million per is too much to commit to.

10/15/11 The Best of Both Worlds

2011-10-14T23:18:00.000-07:00

On one hand, everyone wants to see the Oilers improve this year. On the other hand, one more lottery pick wouldn't hurt; especially if it was a defenseman. So how many wins can the Oilers improve by and still end up in the lottery? Let's take a gander, shall we?

To many fans and analysts, another lottery pick seems almost assured for the Oilers. It's a difficult notion to argue, and it could end up being for the best, but it's hard to fathom how dreadful another season like the last two would be. It would be nice to see them do better than 25 wins. In the picture above, we can see that the 26th place Ottawa Senators finished 2010-11 with a record of 32-40-10, which is 7 more wins than Edmonton had last year. Seven more wins would be very welcome in Edmonton, and even with those Ottawa finished comfortably inside lottery position.

Over the last ten seasons, the average point total of the team finishing 26th in the NHL was 73.1 points. However, the parity of the NHL has changed things since the lockout. In 2005-06 the Boston Bruins finished 26th and had just 29 wins. The next year, Chicago finished 26th with 31 wins. The year after that, the Islanders finished 26th and had 35 wins. From 2007-08 to 2009-10 the three teams that finished 26th each had 79 points, and since the lockout the average point total of 26th place teams was 76 points. For the Oilers that would represent an improvement of 14 points over last season, or around 7 more games in the W column.

For the Oilers to improve this season by 6-10 wins would - sadly - be a morale boost for the fans. It's not an unrealistic expectation, and it would still leave the Oilers in a position to hit the Draft Lottery. Even if they don't win the lottery, the Oilers will still be able to draft an impact player.

The fact is that the Oilers will be lucky to finish 10 wins ahead of where they were last year, so this article may seem silly by the end of the season. But the Oilers really can improve and still be big players at the draft.

10/14/11 Growing Pains

2011-10-14T01:50:00.000-07:00

For twenty whole minutes the Edmonton Oilers looked like a good team. Then it all came flooding back. Here are some notes from Game Two:

- Ten shots on goal in 45 minutes of play is a dismal total from a team that is supposed to be stacked with offense, but that's all the Oilers managed after the first period. Ales Hemsky leaving the game didn't help, but this team has enough skill to win a game without him. It was to be expected that the Wild would come out stronger in the second after being dominated in the first, but the Oilers had no excuse for mustering just one shot on goal in the third.

- Speaking of a lack of offense, the Oilers now have 2 goals in as many games.

- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins showed some more subtle flashes of brilliance in this game. His work in the corners was solid and he won battles for pucks. He also showcased his ability to strip opposing players of pucks in a way that makes it look all too easy. He's NHL ready, but he also showed a few warts. RNH went 1 for 8 in the faceoff circle, and he also did not register a shot on goal.

- After two games Shawn Horcoff and Eric Belanger are 62.5% and 51.4% on their draws, respectively. Anton Lander improved to 41.7% after 12 faceoffs in two games.

- The Oilers have yet to score a powerplay goal in 7 opportunities, but their penalty kill is operating at 91.7%; having killed 11 of 12 penalties so far.

- Ryan Smyth is on pace for 41 goals!

The Oilers have a knack for teasing the fans with glimpses of what they can be, and then regressing. It shouldn`t be surprising considering how young the team and the season are, but somehow it always is. It should be noted that the Oilers are without Gagner and Whitney and are 1-0-1. But even if the Oilers had won this game, the consistency of effort would still be alarming.

Last year the Oilers won Game Two against Florida, despite being largely outplayed and being outshot 28-13. Three goals on just four second period shots, coupled with a standout performance from Khabibulin carried them to an undeserved victory which temporarily masked how many holes there still were.

The Oilers could have won the second game of 2011-12, but they wouldn`t have deserved to. It`s like a broken record to keep saying that they must play a full 60 minutes, so maybe we should just ask them to win two periods. That should be enough for them to at least get better, and maybe even break the now-17 game losing streak in Minny.

10/11/11 Precedent for a Turnaround

2011-10-11T16:33:00.000-07:00

Most in the hockey world are skeptical about the Oilers' chances of returning to the playoffs this season, and after two 30th place finishes they should be. It is uncommon for a very bad team to get good from one year to the next, but it is not unheard of.

In 1991-92 the Quebec Nordiques finished 21st in the NHL (2nd last) with a record of 20-48-12 and 58 points. Only the San Jose Sharks were worse. The Nordiques were coming off last place finishes in each of the three previous years, and they had not made the playoffs since the 1986-87 season. Then, in one of the greatest turnarounds in NHL history, the Nordiques made the playoffs in 1992-93 with a record of 47-27-10 and 104 points. That's a quantum leap of 27 wins and 46 points in just one year.

How on Earth did this happen? Here is a look at the scoring depth of each Nordiques team from one year to the next:

Rank	1991-92 Players	Points	1992-93 Players	Points
1	Sakic	29-65-94, plus-5	Sundin	47-67-114, plus-21
2	Sundin	33-43-76, minus-19	Sakic	48-57-105, minus-3
3	Nolan	42-31-73, minus-9	Duchesne	20-62-82, plus-15
4	Paslawski	28-17-45, minus-12	Ricci	27-51-78, plus-8
5	Hough	16-22-38, minus-1	Nolan	36-41-77, minus-1
6	Tartarinov	11-27-38, plus-8	Kovalenko	27-41-68, plus-13
7	Lapointe	13-20-33, minus-8	Young	30-30-60, plus-5
8	Smail	10-18-28, minus-11	Rucinsky	18-30-48, plus-16
9	Gusarov	5-18-23, minus-9	Kamesky	15-22-37, plus-13
10	Kamesky	7-14-21, minus-1	Lapointe	10-26-36, plus-5

The Nordiques improved from a -63 goals for/against differential in 1991-92 to +51 in 1992-93. They allowed only 18 fewer goals from one season to the next, but they scored almost 100 more; improving from 255 Goals For in 1991-92 to 351 GF in 1992-93. The chart above shows the reason for this. 45 points was 4th-best on the team in 1991-92, but would only have been the 9th-highest total in 1992-93.
The group on the left has two 30 goal scorers, and three 70+ point players, while the group on the right has four 30 goal scorers and five 70+ point players. The group on the right has seven players with 20 or more goals.
Mike Ricci, Andrei Kovalenko, Scott Young and defenseman Steve Duchesne were all new additions to the 1992-93 squad. Duchesne and Ricci came over from the Eric Lindros trade, Young came over from Pittsburgh in a trade, and Kovalenko was a rookie who had been drafted by the Nordiques in 1990.
This 1992-93 team is still a lot different than the one that eventually won the Stanley Cup in Colorado in 1996, but it does represent a massive improvement over the previous year and a playoff appearance that was anything but assured.
So could the Oilers do something like this?
There certainly is potential for the Oilers to score a lot more goals this year than they did last year. The addition of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins should add a few goals, and so will healthy seasons from Whitney, Hemsky, Gagner, Hall, and damn near everyone else. The natural progression of the youngsters could add a lot of goals. Edmonton finished last year with just one 20 goal scorer in Taylor Hall, but this year they should be expecting at least 20 from several of their players.
Having Whitney back (eventually) will be equivalent to an off-season addition, but otherwise the defense and goaltending are more or less the same. If the Oilers are going to make a run at the post-season it will have to be a lot like Quebec's run in the early 90s. That is to say, it will be the Oilers' scoring that carries them. They probablly won't score 100 more goals this year than they did last, but they should score a lot more. Whether or not it's enough to push them into the playoffs remains to be seen.
It's not out of the question.

10/10/11 Breaking the Ice

2011-10-10T14:33:00.000-07:00

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins refuses to let himself not be the story. With his first NHL game, goal, and the Oilers' opener out of the way, the ice has been broken. Here are some notes about the game:

David Staples at Cult of Hockey liked Nugent-Hopkins' game so much that he gave him a score of 9 out of 10, or very nearly a perfect game in Staples' view. He certainly was dominant for stretches and created a load of scoring chances. Even better, he managed to score his first NHL goal with three defenders draped on and around him, which puts another nail in the coffin of the belief that he's too small.

However, there was one area where Nugent-Hopkins will need to be much better: the faceoff. RNH won just 2 of the 15 draws he took last night, or 13.3%, and just 1 of 4 on the powerplay. Having said that, faceoffs were perhaps his only weakness, which is fantastic for an 18 year old in his first NHL game.

- Anton Lander will need to be better on draws as well, having won 3 of the 9 he took. With the way Nugent-Hopkins is playing, it's almost certain that Lander will be sent down to Oklahoma City when Gagner comes back. That's probably the best thing for him, considering that he played just 9:20 last night, the least of any Oiler save for Darcy Hordichuk who was on the ice for 59 seconds in total.

- On the bright side of the faceoff equation, Shawn Horcoff won 17 of 26, good for 65.4%; while Eric Belanger was 9 for 18 in the dot. These two pivots will make for very good 3rd and 4th line centers when Gagner returns.

- Jeff Petry played 21:34 in this game, second only to Tom Gilbert's 26:33. Petry was a plus-1, had 4 shots on goal - one of which was very nearly the game winner - and looked comfortable in this large role.

- The penalty kill looked much improved over last year (but beware small sample sizes), despite allowing one goal against in 8 opportunities. That's thanks in large part to the work of Theo Peckham, Ladislav Smid and Shawn Horcoff, who played 9:43, 9:49 and 8:27 of PK time respectively. This accounted for nearly half the total ice time of Smid and Horcoff and more than half of Peckham's.

- In other news, the Barons lost their first game of the season 7-0 last night. At OilersNation, Lowetide discussed the inexperience of the Barons' blueline. Acting quickly, the Oilers placed Taylor Chorney on waivers today for the purpose of assigning him to the farm team. His 146 games of AHL experience and 56 in the NHL will make him the second most experienced player on the Barons' backend. Needless to say, that's a problem. Chorney may help, but he's collected a minus-60 rating over his time in the AHL. The loss of Fedun is already being felt in OKC. The Oilers will likely make a minor league trade for an experienced defenseman in the near future.

10/06/11 Gagner on the Move?

2011-10-06T22:05:00.000-07:00

One Tweet that Sam Gagner could be a target of the Toronto Maple Leafs does not necessarily make it so, but Damien Cox has been around the game - and the Leafs - for a long time. There may be something to this. On the other hand, Darren Dreger says that Gagner's name hasn't been in any discussions. Even if the Leafs are interested, it doesn't mean that the Oilers would move him.

If we accept the statements of both Cox and Dreger, it means that the Leafs are interested in Gagner and that the Oilers are interested in acquiring a defenseman, and not that the Oilers are interested in moving Sam Gagner to Toronto.

Going forward Tambellini is aware of the need for another top-2 defenseman on this Oilers team. Thanks to the addition of Nugent-Hopkins and the emergence of Anton Lander, Tambellini may consider Gagner to be his best potential trade bait when it comes to acquiring the defenseman he needs. As such, it wouldn't make sense to trade Gagner at this time, when his value is middling at best. What these rumors may tell us is that Gagner's current value around the league is on par with the spare parts on Toronto's defense. If Gagner manages to put together a career year then the Oilers would miss out on a lot of value by trading him now.

Burke is aware of the weakness of the Oilers' situation, and so is the rest of the NHL. These rumors are a fine example of why now is not the time to try to trade for a defenseman. The pieces that the Oilers might be willing to part with (Omark, Gagner) have a low value relative to what Edmonton needs, and other GMs might try to take advantage of a knee-jerk response to injuries and shallow defensive depth.

In this case Tambellini will show his effectiveness as a GM if he doesn't make a move.

10/04/11 Looking Ahead: 2012 Draft Eligibles

2011-10-04T21:30:00.000-07:00

With Oilers fans, management, and media all focused on the need for an impact defenseman, it may be a good time to face the hard truth: the Oilers' best bet for getting that defenseman will probably be through the top of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Here is an early look at who is available:

Ryan Murray (pictured above) has already had his name thrown around with all-time great Scott Niedermayer. As a WHL rookie with Everett, Murray scored 5-22-27 in 52 games during the 2009-10 season, and finished as a plus-33. The Silvertips plummeted from 46 wins that year to just 28 last year, but despite that, Murray had 6-40-46 and was plus-18 in 70 games. He made his WHL debut in the 2008-09 playoffs, where he collected one assist in 5 games, but has since scored 10 playoff points in 11 games over two seasons.

Oilers fans will get a close look at the 6 foot, 185 pound Murray during the World Juniors this year, where he is sure to be a major contributor to Team Canada. He's a left-handed shot, so if the Oilers took him another lefty would probably have to go, but the Oilers' defense is far from set for the future. Barring an injury or total collapse, expect this player to go in the top five.

Matt Dumba

Don't let the name fool you - this Nugent-Hopkins teammate is one smart hockey player. Matt Dumba was named WHL Rookie of the Year last season, and if he continues to progress he'll easily be a top ten pick at the draft. Red Deer lists him at an even 6 feet and 173 pounds, which makes him another slight defender, but he is apparently a solid physical player. How that translates to the NHL against bigger competition remains to be seen. As a rookie he managed 15-11-26, plus-23 in 62 games with the Rebels and 2 more goals in 9 playoff games, finishing with an even rating. Dumba should definitely be in the Oilers range at the draft.

Griffin Reinhart

An Oil Kings connection, Griffin Reinhart will turn 18 in January of next year, but he's already a 6'4" and 208 pound monster. As a rookie with the Oil Kings last year, Reinhart collected 6-19-25 in 45 games and was a plus-7. Offense may not be his calling card at the next level, but Reinhart is apparently very mobile despite his massive frame. Those combined attributes are rare, and could make for an excellent defender one day. Dear old dad, Paul Reinhart, played 648 NHL games for the Atlanta and Calgary Flames, as well as Vancouver. Paul had 560 points in his career, and is only 5'11", so Griffin may not exactly be a chip off the old block, but having an NHL dad can't hurt. Like his dad, Griffin will be a first round pick.

Nick Ebert

The 6-foot-1, 195 pound Ebert played in the USHL at just 15 years old, but has since moved to the Windsor Spitfires of the Ontario Hockey League. As a rookie last season Ebert collected 11-30-41 in 70 games and was a minus-1. So far this year he's got 4 assists in 6 games and is a plus-1, and a strong season could see him jump way up the draft board.

***

There are numerous other defensemen that could easily go in the top ten at this year's draft. Among those are Morgan Rielly and Derrick Pouliot, as the WHL churns out a strong D crop in 2012. As the season goes on we'll see who the true top players are, but all of this is good news for the Oilers. This draft is extremely deep in defensive prospects, which means that even if the Oilers finish outside of the lottery they will have a shot to draft a very good defenseman. If, by some miracle or horror, the Oilers pick first for a third year in a row, they'll be able to select Nail Yakupov and add his tremendous scoring ability. If they don't want to do that, Edmonton could always trade down and select a defensman a little later in the draft, while getting enormous value in a trade.

This is the bright side to another season of injured and lackluster defense, sub-par goaltending and rookie growing pains. At this point Oilers fans will take what they can get, but what they get may just be a whole lot.

10/03/11 Getting Blue from the Buds?

2011-10-03T21:44:00.000-07:00

In a way, all these injuries to the Oilers' defense could end up being a good thing. It's put the focus of the fan base squarely on the organization's defensive depth and the need for a trade that will solidify the backend. The trade may not happen right away, but at least management knows that the fans know that the defense is lacking. So who might the Oilers be after?

Jonathan Willis gave his two cents about why Toronto's Carl Gunnarsson may be a good fit in Edmonton. There isn't much more that needs to be said about the merits of acquiring this player except perhaps what it would take to get him.

Brian Burke isn't under pressure to move a player like Gunnarsson. If the Oilers were after Mike Komisarek and his $4.5 million cap hit, the deal would probably happen instantly. As it is, Gunnarsson's cap hit is just $1.325 million for the next two years and then he's an RFA. The Leafs have 7 NHL-quality defenders on their current roster, but Jake Gardiner is a raw rookie and keeping some veteran insurance can't hurt.

Incidentally, after a series of trades involving the Oilers' 2008 first round pick that Anaheim acquired after the Penner offer sheet, then-GM Brian Burke used the 17th overall pick he ended up with to select Gardiner. The race is now officially on between Gardiner and Eberle (former 2008 first rounder acquired from Anaheim in the Pronger deal).

Would Burke trade Gunnarsson for a Tyler Pitlick or Curtis Hamilton type? Unlikely. Fans in Leafland are getting impatient and if Burke is going to trade a roster player at this point, it's probably going to have to be for a player that can step in and make an impact. Are the Oilers ready to part with such a player? Maybe, but one would think that their eyes are fixed on bigger, better targets than Gunnarsson if players like Omark or Hartikainen are in the discussion.

Matt Lashoff

Staying with the Leafs, by tomorrow morning we'll know if anyone has put in a claim on Matt Lashoff, who was waived by Toronto on Monday. Until November 1st the Oilers will have first dibs on any player who goes across the waiver wire (by virtue of finishing 30th last year). The 6'2" 204 pound defenseman is just 25 years old, and has played in only 74 NHL games. He's a former 22nd overall pick, but he hasn't figured out the NHL just yet. It will cost the Oilers $600,000 to give him an NHL season. The only problem is that he's another contract, and the Oilers are already near to the limit on those as it is. That, and he's yet another left handed shot on the blueline.

10/01/11 Two Big Questions After Friday's Game

2011-10-01T15:06:00.000-07:00

It's been easy to root for Taylor Fedun. An Edmonton product, his showing at training camp had been a very pleasant surprise, and a much needed one for a thin Oilers blueline. Sports is performance based, which is why Fedun had so many fans in his corner, but now is a time where every hockey fan will be behind him hoping for the best possible outcome. We all hope that he will make a full recovery and return to hockey if he so chooses, but a full recovery will do.

This incident opens up two questions about the future. One concerns the NHL as a whole, and the other concerns the Oilers.

First: why hasn't the NHL adopted no-touch icing? It would seem obvious that skating at full speed directly toward the end boards while tangled with another player is not a good idea, and certainly not a safe working enviroment for players. By not changing this rule, the NHL is keeping an already hazardous game more dangerous than it has to be.

There is always the potential to negate an icing call in order to create a scoring chance, but it's a rare thing at best. Even when it does happen, it doesn't guarantee a scoring opportunity, let alone a goal. Mostly, touch icing wastes a few seconds on the clock while a defender skates back - seconds that could be used by that team in the offensive zone after the faceoff. With no-touch icing, the play is stopped and restarted faster because there is no need to see who will touch the puck first.

That one-in-a-hundred scoring chance is the reason that some are opposed to no-touch icing, which is an understandable rationale. On the other hand, if players could bat the puck in with a high stick we'd see more scoring chances as well. Some things must be taken out of the game for the sake of player safety. With how dangerous the NHL is becoming, the safety of players on both sides should be everyone's chief concern. Not every icing call causes an injury, but every race for the puck puts players in a dangerous position.

Fans were beginning to like watching Taylor Fedun, but they'll be lucky to see him again a year from now at best. Hopefully it won't take a star player getting hurt for the NHL to change its mind on this issue. And hopefully if Fedun is a star in the making, this incident won't prevent him from getting there.

Secondly, what are the Oilers going to do with the blue? Part of the reason that Taylor Fedun's strong play had been so important is because the Oilers blueline desperately needed a young defender to take a step forward. It now looks as though the blueline will be without Smid, Chorney, Fedun and Whitney for the start of the season. Whether or not Fedun and Chorney would have made the team is not as important as the fact that one of them would probably have replaced Smid.

It now appears that the Oilers will start the season with Gilbert, Barker, Sutton, Petry, Peckham and Potter. The silver lining here is that Colten Teubert could see a recall as the 7th defenseman, and with a group as green as this there's every chance that he'll see some NHL action before long. An injury prevented him from getting a fair shake in camp and now injuries have opened the door for him. The downside is for Oklahoma City, which is losing the guys that would have made up the core of its defense in Fedun, Teubert and potentially Potter and Petry. By default, Cam Barker is going to be asked to play more minutes than will be ideal for the type of player he is. The bottom line is that the Oilers are now extremely likely to stumble out of the gate.

Because of that, some are calling for Tambellini to start making some moves to bring in a defenseman. This is something that must be done at some point in time, but the time may not be now. First of all, the Oilers shouldn't be too eager to deal away their young forward depth because they don't yet know what they've got with the likes of Omark and Hartikainen, et al. Secondly, if Friday's incident has taught us anything, it's that depth is more important than ever at all positions.

But more important than any of that is the fact that the other 29 NHL general managers are dealing from a position of strength right now. On a personal level the other GMs will feel for Tambellini, but they aren't about to gut their teams for his sake. Half way through this season is about the time that the other GMs will know what players they are comfortable with dealing - even if they are highly regarded players. That is the type of deal that Tambellini should pursue; not a knee-jerk reaction to injury. Also, by that time the Oilers should have at least a healthier defense, which means Tambellini won't get fleeced in every deal he tries to make.

Friday's incidents have left some enormous questions, but answering them won't happen in the same amount of time it took to create them. Fans should be patient with the Oilers, but banging the drum of change with the NHL.

09/28/11 The Trade That Will Define Tambellini

2011-09-28T20:40:00.000-07:00

So far, the highlights of Steve Tambellini's tenure as Oilers General Manager have been two 30th place finishes and two 1st overall picks. While the resulting players are impressive, any idiot could have acquired them. Up to now Tambellini's teams have not made the playoffs either. Soon that will have to change. It hasn't happened yet, but some time in the next 12 months Steve Tambellini will make a trade that will define his success or failure as Oilers GM.

As impressive as Nugent-Hopkins and Hall looked together last night against Phoenix, and as much as there is still talent to come, the Oilers don't have it all figured out. Over the course of this season it will be made abundantly clear once again that the Oilers aren't good enough defensively. This team is still a number one defenseman away from the playoffs.

It's possible that that player is somewhere in the organization; be it Oscar Klefbom, Martin Marinicin, Taylor Fedun, Jeff Petry or another as yet undrafted defenseman. The trouble is that Tambellini doesn't have long to wait. It would take a minor miracle for the Oilers to make the post season this year (pray to every God you've ever heard of around Christmas time), which means we're in for six consecutive years of no playoff hockey in Edmonton. That's just sad, and the GM knows it. If that streak runs to seven years, Tambellini's job will be far from secure.

Ryan Suter

A free agent signing is one possible way to help bolster the Oilers' defense. Nashville's Ryan Suter can become a UFA after this season, but is he a number one guy? He could certainly help this team, but he's also the top of the heap when it comes to defensive UFAs next summer. His price tag will probably make even Glen Sather blush and there will be no shortage of suitors. No pun intended. After this season the Oilers may once again be a desirable location for free agents, but there are still the 29 other teams to contend with and a small number of impact defenders for them to vie for.

Edmonton's answer, therefore, will probably come via trade. Who is available and for what is anyone's guess, but the picture will become clearer as time goes on. Will it be Ales Hemsky who is moved, or will it be players like Teemu Hartikainen or Linus Omark? What about Sam Gagner? Much will depend on the kind of seasons that these players have.

The main thing is that the Oilers should be looking to fill the hole on defense. If there was any truth to the supposed Oilers interest in Zach Bogosian, it's clear that the organization is moving in that direction. Bogosian would have been a perfect fit, in that he's still young enough to stick for a long time but with enough potential to be a number one guy. Now Tambellini will need another target.

And whoever that target is, he'll have to be acquired in the next 12-18 months for the team to take a step from pretender to contender for the 2012-13 season. There is little doubt that something will get done. Whatever the deal ends up being, its fortunes will fall in line with Tambellini's. A trade for a true impact defender is likely to be the biggest move of his career. It's time for him to show everyone what he's made of.